The Netflix Thread

[Dukefrukem]

The price point could become an issue. Could. Or I could find myself going back down to mailers or something.

Cell phone providers are paying for your Netflix sub at this point. It's rolled into everything.

[Skitch]

Cell phone providers are paying for your Netflix sub at this point. It's rolled into everything.

Forgive me I've never paid a cell phone bill in my life, so I don't quite get what you mean.

[Irish]

Rough math incoming;

You're doing what the Valley used to call "Chinese math," eg: There are over a billion people in China. If you convince just 1% to pay retail for your product, well hell, that's 10 million customers! Easy! You'll be rich! Your startup will be a raving success!

It doesn't quite work that way.

Netflix does not have 150 million subscribers paying $16 a month.

Not everyone in every territory pays the same fee, and the catalog differs from place to place. Subscribers in India and Eastern Europe pay pennies on the dollar compared to you. (And it's not like Netflix paid $500 million so some Romanian teenager will be all, "Oh finally! I can binge on Jerry just like I always wanted!")

Understand that 30 million people is roughly 1 out of 10 citizens (not NFLX subscribers, citizens) in the United States, or just under the entire populations of countries like Canada, the UK, or France.

So looking at the numbers a different way, you guys are suggesting that literally 1 out of every 10 people you see will pay 15 bucks a month to watch "Seinfeld" and "Friends."

If rabid fans existed in significant numbers then shows like "Arrested Development" would have received more episode orders from Netflix, shit like "Always Sunny" would enjoy higher cable viewership, someone would have revived "The Office" by now, and bought "Supernatural" outright.

Niche audiences will always be niche audiences. You can make money off niche but not in a way that directly impacts the bottom line.

The simplest explanation is that Netflix spent half a billion dollars on a loss leader, to create the impression of value. (Which is something Duke mentioned a few posts back.)

Personally, I think that's insane and totally not worth it, especially because they're also running like $12 billion in debt now.

PS: Netflix's domestic subs --- where they make the most money --- have nearly flatlined over the last 3 years and they lost over 100,000 members between Q1 and Q2 2019. Those numbers aren't significant versus their total base, but they're telling.

[Ezee E]

Wut.

[Dukefrukem]

You're doing what the Valley used to call "Chinese math," eg: There are over a billion people in China. If you convince just 1% to pay retail for your product, well hell, that's 10 million customers! Easy! You'll be rich! Your startup will be a raving success!

It doesn't quite work that way.

Netflix does not have 150 million subscribers paying $16 a month.

Not everyone in every territory pays the same fee, and the catalog differs from place to place. Subscribers in India and Eastern Europe pay pennies on the dollar compared to you. (And it's not like Netflix paid $500 million so some Romanian teenager will be all, "Oh finally! I can binge on Jerry just like I always wanted!")

Understand that 30 million people is roughly 1 out of 10 citizens (not NFLX subscribers, citizens) in the United States, or just under the entire populations of countries like Canada, the UK, or France.

So looking at the numbers a different way, you guys are suggesting that literally 1 out of every 10 people you see will pay 15 bucks a month to watch "Seinfeld" and "Friends."

If rabid fans existed in significant numbers then shows like "Arrested Development" would have received more episode orders from Netflix, shit like "Always Sunny" would enjoy higher cable viewership, someone would have revived "The Office" by now, and bought "Supernatural" outright.

Niche audiences will always be niche audiences. You can make money off niche but not in a way that directly impacts the bottom line.

The simplest explanation is that Netflix spent half a billion dollars on a loss leader, to create the impression of value. (Which is something Duke mentioned a few posts back.)

Personally, I think that's insane and totally not worth it, especially because they're also running like $12 billion in debt now.

PS: Netflix's domestic subs --- where they make the most money --- have nearly flatlined over the last 3 years and they lost over 100,000 members between Q1 and Q2 2019. Those numbers aren't significant versus their total base, but they're telling.

All I did was google "Netflix subscribers" to get my numbers.

[Irish]

All I did was google "Netflix subscribers" to get my numbers.

Well, I was trying to make the case that your numbers were bad but your assumptions were worse.

25 or 30% of anyone's base is a huge number on which to predicate behavior, regardless of how many actual customers we're talking about.

I'm going off (long ago) professional experience. For comparison: In any action a business takes or any campaign they mount, they'll get maaaaaybe a 1-2% response rate. 3-4% if they're lucky.

Skitch's assumptions are similar to yours, in that he sees what's true for his immediate peer group as true across state and national lines.

The WaPo article interested me because it answered one of my earlier questions --- ie, nobody has actual numbers that say, yes, NFLX's "Seinfeld" buy was a good deal for them or their subscribers.

[Dukefrukem]

Well, I was trying to make the case that your numbers were bad but your assumptions were worse.

25 or 30% of anyone's base is a huge number on which to predicate behavior, regardless of how many actual customers we're talking about.

I'm going off (long ago) professional experience. For comparison: In any action a business takes or any campaign they mount, they'll get maaaaaybe a 1-2% response rate. 3-4% if they're lucky.

Skitch's assumptions are similar to yours, in that he sees what's true for his immediate peer group as true across state and national lines.

The WaPo article interested me because it answered one of my earlier questions --- ie, nobody has actual numbers that say, yes, NFLX's "Seinfeld" buy was a good deal for them or their subscribers.

Well my main point, was if we had access to those real numbers, the real data that Netflix has, they can figure out what their break-even point is when doing a $500 million deal. I was just sketching out how it would be done.

[Skitch]

Skitch's assumptions are similar to yours, in that he sees what's true for his immediate peer group as true across state and national lines.

If rabid fans existed in significant numbers then shows like "Arrested Development" would have received more episode orders from Netflix, shit like "Always Sunny" would enjoy higher cable viewership, someone would have revived "The Office" by now, and bought "Supernatural" outright.

But all those shows are relatively niche shows with rabid (not EVERYONE) type fanbases. Thats why Arrested Development keeps getting cancelled, Always Sunny has okay cable viewership, The Office appeals to a good-not-mindblowing crowd and (literally yesterday) when I asked for unpopular opinions on FB, 2 in about 15 mentioned they hated it, and Supernatural has enough legs to have 27 seasons yet the only people I know who watch it are exactly THOSE 2 PEOPLE that hated the office.

[Irish]

Well my main point, was if we had access to those real numbers, the real data that Netflix has, they can figure out what their break-even point is when doing a $500 million deal. I was just sketching out how it would be done.

Yeah, but you're making another assumption there, that Netflix bought the rights to "Seinfeld" as a direct investment that will pay out $X over a number of years. I don't think they did, and I don't think anyone can say otherwise with a degree of confidence. (Mostly, because the numbers don't match up.)

I think it's insane to believe there's a large enough audience for these shows to justify the huge payouts, at least in a dollar for dollar, investment sort of way.

But all those shows are relatively niche shows with rabid (not EVERYONE) type fanbases. Thats why Arrested Development keeps getting cancelled, Always Sunny has okay cable viewership, The Office appeals to a good-not-mindblowing crowd and (literally yesterday) when I asked for unpopular opinions on FB, 2 in about 15 mentioned they hated it, and Supernatural has enough legs to have 27 seasons yet the only people I know who watch it are exactly THOSE 2 PEOPLE that hated the office.

r/DunderMifflin has 1.2 million members.

I mean, I see your point about cult shows, but "The Office" ran on a major network for 9 seasons.

[Skitch]

r/DunderMifflin has 1.2 million members.

How many viewers is that on Netflix? That may be one million people that have/had Netflix just for The Office.

I have lost the narrative of this conversation. I'm sorry guys, I've been up since 4am every day this week for work, I will try harder this weekend, but I'm just tired and confused right now.

[transmogrifier]

Netflix is back in my good books for funding Andrew Dominik's next film. That dude should have money thrown at him to make whatever he likes.

[Ezee E]

Netflix is back in my good books for funding Andrew Dominik's next film. That dude should have money thrown at him to make whatever he likes.

He directed the Manson episode of Mindhunter too.

[MadMan]

Eventually I will cancel Netflix if their price starts heading towards cable territory. However until then I am literally keeping them for the small amount of programming I watch on it every month. Hell for a while I kept Netflix mostly to watch their superhero shows plus Stranger Things.

What I don't get is Hulu's appeal. Yes it's great to use to keep up with TV shows on air, but their library is no less or better than Netflix's.

[Philip J. Fry]

[Philip J. Fry]

[Peng]

Most out-of-left-field good series this year: The Dark Crystal: The Age of Resistance?

[Philip J. Fry]

[[ETM]]

One thing I feel Netflix could change is how individual streams are used. We had our Israeli friends over this summer and they gave us their Netflix password when they left. They're paying for four streams when they use two at most at any time, so our friend's sister in the US is using the fourth.

Sent from my Mi A1 using Tapatalk

[Philip J. Fry]

[Philip J. Fry]

[Philip J. Fry]

Apparently Netflix's first 'in-house' animated feature film.

[Philip J. Fry]

[Philip J. Fry]

[Philip J. Fry]

[Lazlo]

Very, very exciting, though I'd always hoped for a live movie trilogy with CGI mo-cap Bones and regular humans. Just glad it's getting adapted finally!