HBO Max and Discovery?

[DFA1979]

That's it for $150-$200 million budgeted movies in that case too.

Hmm...I agree with Duke. Mulen wasn't cheap that's for sure. Also I forgot to note that I agree with someone who posted on Twitter or FB that Disney/Amazon or Netflix will just buy up or create their own theaters since they will be able to afford taking a hit during the pandemic. I could see that happening regardless.

[Dukefrukem]

Whedon apparently can stay attached to a project now.

https://deadline.com/2020/11/the-nev...ts-1234622208/

[Dukefrukem]

Whelp. Everyone is talking about the Undoing. So I signed up. WWII in 3 weeks too.

[Mal]

The Undoing kinda stinks. Bloated storytelling, unremarkable characters and courtroom moments. Hugh Grant is pretty good, though not worth watching it all for.

[Dukefrukem]

Double holy shit

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/03/warn...-theaters.html

[Irish]

[Irish]

Compare the meaning behind this announcement to the convention wisdom there will be a widely available covid vaccine in 2021.

The bean counters at Warners have grimly predicted there won't be a movie business next year, or there won't be a vaccine, or both.

[Ezee E]

Compare the meaning behind this announcement to the convention wisdom there will be a widely available covid vaccine in 2021.

The bean counters at Warners have grimly predicted there won't be a movie business next year, or there won't be a vaccine, or both.

Vaccine probably widely available until at least April? No accessibility to full movie theaters until July, maybe?

[Scar]

The optimist in me thinks I’ll get a vaccine come spring time.

[Dukefrukem]

When i think "wildly available" I think walking into a CVS and getting it like a flu shot.

Fall of 2021.

WB is smart.

Remember when we were all making fun of HBO Max? Now they have a platform for their content that wouldn't be consumed otherwise.

[Lazlo]

Compare the meaning behind this announcement to the convention wisdom there will be a widely available covid vaccine in 2021.

The bean counters at Warners have grimly predicted there won't be a movie business next year, or there won't be a vaccine, or both.

I think there's a little of this, but I think mostly it's a way to get people subscribed to their service that's had underwhelming adoption so far and to keep them subscribed. Wonder Woman 1984 can be watched during the free trial. But if there's a new big movie every 60 days, most people will stay subscribed.

[Dukefrukem]

I think there's a little of this, but I think mostly it's a way to get people subscribed to their service that's had underwhelming adoption so far and to keep them subscribed. Wonder Woman 1984 can be watched during the free trial. But if there's a new big movie every 60 days, most people will stay subscribed.

The free trial for Hbo Max ended yesterday. So watching WWII for free is no longer possible.

[Lazlo]

The free trial for Hbo Max ended yesterday. So watching WWII for free is no longer possible.

Well, now people will be less enticed to sign up for one month and cancel after they've watched it. They've now been told to expect big movies like it on the service.

[transmogrifier]

I keep on thinking, why do you need HBO Max to watch World War II?

Anyway, I wish Max was here in Korea - it seems to have a much better movie library than Netflix does (I don't care about the new releases - they will still come out at the theaters here like Wonder Woman is on Christmas)

[Irish]

I think there's a little of this, but I think mostly it's a way to get people subscribed to their service that's had underwhelming adoption so far and to keep them subscribed. Wonder Woman 1984 can be watched during the free trial. But if there's a new big movie every 60 days, most people will stay subscribed.

I agree, sorta? But then they still wouldn't opt for streaming if they thought theatrical would be viable in 2021.

Several of the movies on their slate are billion dollar properties. A rough third of that expected box office would normally come from North America. To make up the difference, HBO Max would need to gain ~20 million subscribers on each film.

That ain't gonna happen, so they're effectively cutting their losses (cf: "Tenet") while propping up their streaming service.

The tepid response so far has largely been a branding problem, coupled with their failure to make Max available on popular platforms (it's still not on Roku, and won't be on Prime or Fire until 2021, iirc).

[Lazlo]

I agree, sorta? But then they still wouldn't opt for streaming if they thought theatrical would be viable in 2021.

Several of the movies on their slate are billion dollar properties. A rough third of that expected box office would normally come from North America. To make up the difference, HBO Max would need to gain ~20 million subscribers on each film.

That ain't gonna happen, so they're effectively cutting their losses (cf: "Tenet") while propping up their streaming service.

The tepid response so far has largely been a branding problem, coupled with their failure to make Max available on popular platforms (it's still not on Roku, and won't be on Prime or Fire until 2021, iirc).

Yeah, there's no way they can match the revenue they'd have made on these movies without a pandemic just off subscribers. But it is a way to boost the service and make some money off these movies vs. no money. I also wonder if it's leverage over Roku, though that's probably low on Warners' list of concerns. Streaming devices aren't all that expensive and there's so many other non-Roku options that I find it hard to believe people are deeply married to them. So Roku probably needs to get on the stick. It's maybe a way to transition away from making so many huge movies. Burn off this slate and then don't spend so much on the 2022/3 slate.

[Irish]

Streaming devices aren't all that expensive and there's so many other non-Roku options that I find it hard to believe people are deeply married to them.

Roku has an installed base of ~40 million and most of those accounts are in the United States. It's a perfect fit for HBO Max, but AT&T decided to get pissy about revenue and advertising share.

Nobody is gonna spend $30-50 (or more!) on a new device just to watch HBO Max.

Weirdly, Max is available on Apple TV+, which afaik has the same revenue sharing model, but with a lower subscribed base, and comes attach to much more expensive hardware.

ETA:

The most prominent platforms without agreements to carry HBO Max at launch were Amazon (maker of the Fire TV) and Roku, which together are estimated to control 70% of the U.S. streaming player market.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HBO_Max#Distribution

I honestly don't get what AT&T is doing. It's very odd.

[baby doll]

I think the major takeaway here is that the theatrical experience is dead and Christopher Nolan's the man who killed it.

[Ivan Drago]

I think the major takeaway here is that the theatrical experience is dead and Christopher Nolan's the man who killed it.

Pretty much. The future of moviegoing is in the hands of the consumers and they wanted to watch The Irishman as a miniseries and cheered when Disney bought Fox because Wolverine is in the MCU.

After I'm vaccinated, the first place I'm going is the movie theater. And I'll enjoy them until the inevitable.

[Scar]

Pretty much. The future of moviegoing is in the hands of the consumers and they wanted to watch The Irishman as a miniseries and cheered when Disney bought Fox because Wolverine is in the MCU.

After I'm vaccinated, the first place I'm going is the movie theater. And I'll enjoy them until the inevitable.

I’m going to head up north and hang out with the folks.

[Dukefrukem]

I'm going to leave my house and go somewhere, anywhere.

[transmogrifier]

Pretty much. The future of moviegoing is in the hands of the consumers and they wanted to watch The Irishman as a miniseries and cheered when Disney bought Fox because Wolverine is in the MCU.

After I'm vaccinated, the first place I'm going is the movie theater. And I'll enjoy them until the inevitable.

Not to brag or anything, but I have seen While You Were Sleeping, When Harry Met Sally, and Mank at theaters this week, and am planning to see Apocalypse Now: The Final Cut tomorrow or Monday.

Okay, I was bragging a little. Except for the While You Were Sleeping part.

[Dukefrukem]

Saw your review on Mank on LB and immediately put it at the top of my queue.

It's now on Netflix but wasn't when you posted it.

[amberlita]

Okay, I was bragging a little. Except for the While You Were Sleeping part.

Don't be ashamed of that. It's a great movie.

Makes me realize that the last time I saw a movie in the theaters was in Thailand in January and omg I cannot wait until I can get vaccinated and start traveling back to SE Asia again where the world is right-side up and seriously you should humblebrag the shit out of that, trans.

[Lazlo]

Roku has an installed base of ~40 million and most of those accounts are in the United States. It's a perfect fit for HBO Max, but AT&T decided to get pissy about revenue and advertising share.

Nobody is gonna spend $30-50 (or more!) on a new device just to watch HBO Max.

Weirdly, Max is available on Apple TV+, which afaik has the same revenue sharing model, but with a lower subscribed base, and comes attach to much more expensive hardware.

ETA:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HBO_Max#Distribution

I honestly don't get what AT&T is doing. It's very odd.

Ah, I way underestimated Roku's market share. It's just that, while I know I'm not a typical American household in terms of knowledge about this stuff and amount of tech on hand, but I can watch HBO Max on my PS4, XBOX One, AppleTV, laptop, and cast it from my phone to my TV. Annoying that there's never been a built-in HBO app for my TV like there is for almost every other major service. I guess my point was that many people will already have alternate devices, but that's maybe not true on a widespread level.