Fantasy Movie League: October 2018 - March 2019

[Skitch]

Damn it. I'll look...

[Spinal]

Well, you guys were right about Halloween. I missed the boat on that one.

[Skitch]

Lets go with The Possession of Hannah Grace.

[Spinal]

Some updates:

Halloween took just 2 days to become the highest grossing film in the franchise. With $76,221,545 over the weekend and the titular holiday approaching, a shot at capping may not be out of the question. Regardless, this is a huge success for Ivan and transmogrifier, who both took it as a 3rd-rounder.

Venom may fall just short of capping, but it's going to be close. At any rate, Henry and Skitch should still be pleased to avoid a misstep on a film that seemed a little risky once the reviews came in. Right now, it stands at $171,063,982 with one weekend left to go.

As expected, A Star is Born is now taking in more on a daily basis than Venom. But it's not going to come close to matching it. Still, with $126,127,328 and 11 days left, it's another October success story. Ezee and Henry benefit from this one.

First Man might be considered a bit of a disappointment. It took in $21,435,050 in its first week, and although the reviews have been pretty good, Chazelle's artistic decision to focus on the insularity of Armstrong's personality may limit its broad appeal. It could eventually come in under $50,000,000. I imagine that Lazlo and TGM were hoping for more.

Lazlo and TGM also share Goosebumps 2, which earned slightly less in its first week at $19,089,812. A decent, but unremarkable showing. It seems highly likely that this Halloween-themed movie will drop off significantly in weeks 3 and 4.

Bad Times at the El Royale did not find wide appeal, earning just $10,041,801 in its first week. At this point, it doesn't seem likely to make it to $20,000,000. Henry took it as a 9th-round flyer, so it's not that big a deal. I took it in the 7th. Somebody should have told me it was 2 hours and 20 minutes long!

The Hate U Give is now truly in wide release, playing on over 2000 screens. This translated to a $7,602,108 second weekend of scoring. It's tough to say where this one will end up at the end of four weeks, but probably not high enough for dreamdead, who took it in the 5th round. Transmogrifier took it as an 8th rounder and has a little bit lower expectations. $30,000,000 seems like an optimistic estimate for where this will end up.

Looking ahead, Hunter Killer is the only new release this weekend that matters for our purposes. Halloween seems like a safe bet to continue to rack up big numbers.

[TGM]

Nothing like starting the game off with back to back bombs.

[Skitch]

Woohoo! Go Venom!

[Ezee E]

Cooper power.

Although skipping on Halloween in favor of Glass looks to be a bad decision.

[transmogrifier]

Glass will make money. Looks like Hate U Give is going to be my lowest scoring movie ever in the four games I've played so far. The changed release schedule screwed it.

[Dukefrukem]

I guess Hard Powder was renamed. I like the first name better.

[Skitch]

The original film is pretty good. Too bad trailer shows so much.

[Dukefrukem]

This is a remake?

[Skitch]

Its on Netflix. I recommend.

[Spinal]

It sounds like Madea might be actually dying in the upcoming Tyler Perry movie. Could help the people who took Madea Family Funeral.

[Ezee E]

Was about to say, "Poor, poor people who took Suspiria," but then I realized nobody took it.

[transmogrifier]

Looks like my first 5 films are going to do pretty well, but my last four are going to be lucky to make 20 m each. Slim pickings this year.

[Spinal]

The following films have completed their run:

Venom - $190,813,348
A Star is Born - $154,534,566

Crazy stat of the week:

Suspiria made more money playing on 2 screens than London Fields did playing on 613 screens. Both premiered last Friday.

[Spinal]

The following films have completed their run:

Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween - $45,280,844
First Man - $42,812,705
The Hate U Give - $23,923,569
Bad Times at the El Royale - $17,602,294

Whole lotta 'oof' in that group.

In other news, Bohemian Rhapsody made $69 million in its first week. That's a darn good 4th round pick.

[transmogrifier]

I think Henry Gale already has League B won.

[Henry Gale]

I think Henry Gale already has League B won.

Haha I do think this is a case where maybe being at TIFF and/or generally around people who were excitedly anticipating all of my top choices, and even with Green Book, depending on how quickly it clicks with general audience vs. a slow build with word of mouth / nominations buzz, I could now see it making more than my 5th, 6th and 7th round picks.

[Spinal]

I'm getting a bit concerned about Fantastic Beasts. I know it has a holiday week, but those reviews are not good.

[Dukefrukem]

I'm getting a bit concerned about Fantastic Beasts. I know it has a holiday week, but those reviews are not good.

I mean, the first movie was awful. Hollywood thinks you can slap some Harry Potter mentions in it and people will flock.

[transmogrifier]

I'm getting a bit concerned about Fantastic Beasts. I know it has a holiday week, but those reviews are not good.

It'll be fine. There's not a lot of surefire cappers this season anyway, so even if it doesn't quite make it, it won't be the end of the world.

[Henry Gale]

Apparently the ceiling for openings weekends of "Strong, intelligent drama aimed at adults with no shortage of big name stars, but without music as its focus" is $10-15 million this season.

First it was Bad Times at the El Royale, then First Man, now Widows.

[transmogrifier]

I think Henry Gale already has League B won.

I take it back. Ivan Drago is coming up strong.

[Spinal]

Scoreboard is updated through last Thursday. Here's a brief rundown of the films currently in play:

Ralph Breaks the Internet - Looking very strong in its opening weekend, a likely capper.

Creed II - It's falling just short of its predecessor, but still looking fairly strong.

The Grinch - A pretty safe bet to cap at this point.

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald - underperforming, even $150 million may not be a certainty

Bohemian Rhapsody - very strong showing

Instant Family - great for Winston who took it in the 9th round, not so hot for Skitch who took it in the 5th

Robin Hood - a bomb of fairly large proportions

Widows - considering where it was drafted, not doing too well

Green Book - hard to say right now, as it's currently only playing on 1063 screens, will have to see how much it expands

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - fairly weak

Overlord - losing audiences at an alarming rate and didn't have that much to begin with

Nobody's Fool - mediocre

The Favourite - only on 4 screens so far, but still made more money over the weekend than the next film on the list ...

The Girl in the Spider's Web - a small disaster

Hunter Killer finishes its run with $15,703,544.