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Thread: Film Awards Talk - 2018

  1. #1
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Film Awards Talk - 2018

    Discuss.

    PRE LABOR DAY PREDICTIONS:



    SEPTEMBER 17TH:

    BEST PICTURE:
    OUT - Downsizing, Hostiles
    IN - Lady Bird, Shape of Water

    DIRECTOR:
    OUT - Payne / Cooper
    IN - Gerwig / Bigelow

    ACTRESS:
    OUT - Simmonds, Bening
    IN - Ronan, Hawkins

    ACTOR:
    OUT - Damon
    IN - Hanks

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    OUT - Pfeiffer, Chau, Wiig
    IN - Metcalf, Janney, Coon

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    OUT - Harrelson
    IN - ROCKWELL

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    NEW - Call Me By Your Name, Last Flag Flying, Molly's Game, Victoria and Abdul, Darkest Hour

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    NEW - The Post, Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Big Sick


    -Downsizing and Hostiles are hit hard with my own reaction at Telluride.
    -Awaiting Call Me By Your Name, which could very well be a movie that only hits hard at Indie and Critics lists... Looking forward to it.
    -Get Out has high regard on the Gold Derby, but I currently don't see it doing a thing.
    -NO idea what would win Best Picture at this time. The Post, without seeing a single image, has everything going for it with no frontrunners right now.

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  2. #2
    Evil mind, evil sword. Ivan Drago's Avatar
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    My best guess for Best Picture is Darkest Hour. It's based on a historical figure and takes place during a time where the world is in political peril. It also mirrors the state of America today too much for the Academy not to reward.
    Last Five Films I've Seen (Out of 5)

    The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse (Mackesy, 2022) 4.5
    Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Crawford, 2022) 4
    Confess, Fletch (Mottola, 2022) 3.5
    M3GAN (Johnstone, 2023) 3.5
    Turning Red (Shi, 2022) 4.5
    Tokyo Story (Ozu, 1953) 5

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  3. #3
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Quote Quoting Ivan Drago (view post)
    My best guess for Best Picture is Darkest Hour. It's based on a historical figure and takes place during a time where the world is in political peril. It also mirrors the state of America today too much for the Academy not to reward.
    I hope not though. What an atypical, British biopic. Give me Dunkirk anyday.

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  4. #4
    After its TIFF win, is the McDonagh movie an actual Best Picture contender? In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths would beg to differ.

  5. #5
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Quote Quoting Idioteque Stalker (view post)
    After its TIFF win, is the McDonagh movie an actual Best Picture contender? In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths would beg to differ.
    Not on my list at least. But I'm looking forward to seeing it!

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  6. #6
    Evil mind, evil sword. Ivan Drago's Avatar
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    What about Mark Felt? I saw the trailer for that before Detroit and got a Spotlight vibe from it.
    Last Five Films I've Seen (Out of 5)

    The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse (Mackesy, 2022) 4.5
    Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Crawford, 2022) 4
    Confess, Fletch (Mottola, 2022) 3.5
    M3GAN (Johnstone, 2023) 3.5
    Turning Red (Shi, 2022) 4.5
    Tokyo Story (Ozu, 1953) 5

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  7. #7
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Quote Quoting Ezee E (view post)
    Discuss.

    PRE LABOR DAY PREDICTIONS:



    SEPTEMBER 17TH:

    BEST PICTURE:
    OUT - Downsizing, Hostiles
    IN - Lady Bird, Shape of Water

    DIRECTOR:
    OUT - Payne / Cooper
    IN - Gerwig / Bigelow

    ACTRESS:
    OUT - Simmonds, Bening
    IN - Ronan, Hawkins

    ACTOR:
    OUT - Damon
    IN - Hanks

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    OUT - Pfeiffer, Chau, Wiig
    IN - Metcalf, Janney, Coon

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    OUT - Harrelson
    IN - ROCKWELL

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    NEW - Call Me By Your Name, Last Flag Flying, Molly's Game, Victoria and Abdul, Darkest Hour

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    NEW - The Post, Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Big Sick


    -Downsizing and Hostiles are hit hard with my own reaction at Telluride.
    -Awaiting Call Me By Your Name, which could very well be a movie that only hits hard at Indie and Critics lists... Looking forward to it.
    -Get Out has high regard on the Gold Derby, but I currently don't see it doing a thing.
    -NO idea what would win Best Picture at this time. The Post, without seeing a single image, has everything going for it with no frontrunners right now.
    OCTOBER UPDATE:

    -BEST PICTURE: No changes, but Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool is ready to drop off. Haven't heard of any type of release. Not convinced that Get Out, Three Billboards..., Big Sick, or Florida Project take a spot, but they're in the waiting. NEED A PREVIEW FOR THE PTA.

    DIRECTOR: Still not convinced on Shape of Water, despite it being high on many others' list. I think people will think it's too odd.

    ACTRESS: Also unchanged.

    ACTOR: Unchanged until I can be convinced that Daniel Day-Lewis' movie might be Inherent Vice or The Master. If it's Inherent Vice, then I'll probably put Gylenhaal or Hugh Jackman in his spot.

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OUT - Octavia Spencer
    IN - Kristin Scott Thomas
    *If Big Sick continues to show some momentum, Holly Hunter could be the rep of the movie. Golden Globes will need to show some wins. Need to see how big Carrie Coon is in The Post, but that could drop off right away.

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Unchanged, when does Call Me By Your Name come out? I feel like there's no way that two get ripped, but the roles on gold derby seem to show otherwise. I'd like (wish) to think Mark Hamill could have a great role.

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    OUT - "Darkest Hour" fell off the nominees list for some reason. Is it original?
    OUT - Last Flag Flying. That preview looks like schmaltz.
    IN - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
    IN - Mudbound

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    *Unchanged, and what a category this year. Darkest Hour is apparently original. Get Out seems like it'll get SOMETHING. For now, Three Billboards and Big Sick remain.

    CINEMATOGRAPHY: NEW
    IN - Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, Shape of Water, Wonderstruck, and Darkest Hour

    COSTUME DESIGN: NEW
    IN - Beauty and the Beast, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, and PTA

    FILM EDITING: NEW
    IN - Dunkirk, Get Out, The Post, Call Me By Your Name, and Detroit

    MAKEUP and HAIR - NEW
    IN - Darkest Hour, Shape of Water, and Logan

    The other categories haven't shown up yet on gold derby.

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  8. #8
    Evil mind, evil sword. Ivan Drago's Avatar
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    ACTOR: Unchanged until I can be convinced that Daniel Day-Lewis' movie might be Inherent Vice or The Master. If it's Inherent Vice, then I'll probably put Gylenhaal or Hugh Jackman in his spot.
    I'm worried that whatever studio is backing Phantom Thread will do to it what Paramount did to Silence last year and rush it out to theaters for a quick awards push with no marketing campaign. It's supposed to come out on Christmas Day and we haven't even seen a trailer for it yet.
    Last Five Films I've Seen (Out of 5)

    The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse (Mackesy, 2022) 4.5
    Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Crawford, 2022) 4
    Confess, Fletch (Mottola, 2022) 3.5
    M3GAN (Johnstone, 2023) 3.5
    Turning Red (Shi, 2022) 4.5
    Tokyo Story (Ozu, 1953) 5

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  9. #9
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Quote Quoting Ivan Drago (view post)
    I'm worried that whatever studio is backing Phantom Thread will do to it what Paramount did to Silence last year and rush it out to theaters for a quick awards push with no marketing campaign. It's supposed to come out on Christmas Day and we haven't even seen a trailer for it yet.
    No trailer. Not even a promo pic.

    Still wondering if it just gets pushed back at some point. But yeah, I think you're right.

    There's apparently a Clint Eastwood movie still coming out too, but that started shooting in August I think...

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  10. #10
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    Gary Oldman seems like a lock to win at this point; so many Oscar-friendly bits: historical figures, transformative effects, bombastic performance, being-overdue narrative, etc.
    Midnight Run (1988) - 9
    The Smiling Lieutenant (1931) - 8.5
    The Adventures of Robinhood (1938) - 8
    Sisters (1973) - 6.5
    Shin Godzilla (2016) - 7.5

  11. #11
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    Quote Quoting Peng (view post)
    Gary Oldman seems like a lock to win at this point; so many Oscar-friendly bits: historical figures, transformative effects, bombastic performance, being-overdue narrative, etc.
    Plus he's way overdue. He's only been nominated once before.
    Sure why not?

    STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (Rian Johnson) - 9
    STRONGER (David Gordon Green) - 6
    THE DISASTER ARTIST (James Franco) - 7
    THE FLORIDA PROJECT (Sean Baker) - 9
    LADY BIRD (Greta Gerwig) - 8


    "Hitchcock is really bad at suspense."
    - Stay Puft

  12. #12
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Quote Quoting Watashi (view post)
    Plus he's way overdue. He's only been nominated once before.
    And seems to be well respected by everyone.

    Willem Dafoe is getting the same treatment for Supporting Actor.

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  13. #13
    Evil mind, evil sword. Ivan Drago's Avatar
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    I would love it if Willem Dafoe won Best Supporting Actor. It's about time he got his due.
    Last Five Films I've Seen (Out of 5)

    The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse (Mackesy, 2022) 4.5
    Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Crawford, 2022) 4
    Confess, Fletch (Mottola, 2022) 3.5
    M3GAN (Johnstone, 2023) 3.5
    Turning Red (Shi, 2022) 4.5
    Tokyo Story (Ozu, 1953) 5

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  14. #14
    Users on gold derby seem to be underwhelmed by the Phantom Thread trailer. Not sure if that means anything or not. To me it looks like the most Oscar-y movie PTA has ever made, and Vicky Krieps sure got a lot of screen time in that trailer. Seems like a big Oscar movie at first blush, but I don't yet have a feel for industry reactions. For what it's worth I dropped Diane Kruger and added Krieps in my fantasy awards season game thing.

  15. #15
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Quote Quoting Idioteque Stalker (view post)
    Users on gold derby seem to be underwhelmed by the Phantom Thread trailer. Not sure if that means anything or not. To me it looks like the most Oscar-y movie PTA has ever made, and Vicky Krieps sure got a lot of screen time in that trailer. Seems like a big Oscar movie at first blush, but I don't yet have a feel for industry reactions. For what it's worth I dropped Diane Kruger and added Krieps in my fantasy awards season game thing.
    Still thinking on it. It may drop off completely for me, INCLUDING DDL. I'll have my update on Thursday.

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  16. #16
    Say it ain't so!

  17. #17
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Quote Quoting Ezee E (view post)
    OCTOBER UPDATE:

    -BEST PICTURE: No changes, but Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool is ready to drop off. Haven't heard of any type of release. Not convinced that Get Out, Three Billboards..., Big Sick, or Florida Project take a spot, but they're in the waiting. NEED A PREVIEW FOR THE PTA.

    DIRECTOR: Still not convinced on Shape of Water, despite it being high on many others' list. I think people will think it's too odd.

    ACTRESS: Also unchanged.

    ACTOR: Unchanged until I can be convinced that Daniel Day-Lewis' movie might be Inherent Vice or The Master. If it's Inherent Vice, then I'll probably put Gylenhaal or Hugh Jackman in his spot.

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OUT - Octavia Spencer
    IN - Kristin Scott Thomas
    *If Big Sick continues to show some momentum, Holly Hunter could be the rep of the movie. Golden Globes will need to show some wins. Need to see how big Carrie Coon is in The Post, but that could drop off right away.

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Unchanged, when does Call Me By Your Name come out? I feel like there's no way that two get ripped, but the roles on gold derby seem to show otherwise. I'd like (wish) to think Mark Hamill could have a great role.

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    OUT - "Darkest Hour" fell off the nominees list for some reason. Is it original?
    OUT - Last Flag Flying. That preview looks like schmaltz.
    IN - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
    IN - Mudbound

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
    *Unchanged, and what a category this year. Darkest Hour is apparently original. Get Out seems like it'll get SOMETHING. For now, Three Billboards and Big Sick remain.

    CINEMATOGRAPHY: NEW
    IN - Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, Shape of Water, Wonderstruck, and Darkest Hour

    COSTUME DESIGN: NEW
    IN - Beauty and the Beast, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, and PTA

    FILM EDITING: NEW
    IN - Dunkirk, Get Out, The Post, Call Me By Your Name, and Detroit

    MAKEUP and HAIR - NEW
    IN - Darkest Hour, Shape of Water, and Logan

    The other categories haven't shown up yet on gold derby.
    NOVEMBER UPDATE:

    PICTURE:
    OUT - Detroit
    IN - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
    *Get Out is getting a good push from the studio. I could throw that in as a 10th. I haven't seen a single thing about Film Stars..., Darkest Hour, or Roman Israel...

    DIRECTOR:
    OUT - Kathryn Bigelow
    IN - Martin McDonagh

    ACTRESS:
    Unchanged

    ACTOR:
    Unchanged.
    Daniel Day-Lewis... I don't know if you'll make it to the end.

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    Unchanged

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Unchanged

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    Unchanged

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    Unchanged
    *THis category is TOUGH.

    CINEMATOGRAPHY:
    OUT - Wonderstruck
    IN - Wonder Wheel
    *Wonderful?

    COSTUME DESIGN:
    OUT - Victoria and Abdul
    IN - Greatest Showman

    EDITING
    OUT - Detroit
    IN - Darkest Hour

    MAKEUP and HAIR
    OUT - Shape of Water
    IN - I, Tonya

    That's all for now!

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  18. #18
    Guttenbergian Pop Trash's Avatar
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    LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD:
    Harvey Weinstein
    Ratings on a 1-10 scale for your pleasure:

    Top Gun: Maverick - 8
    Top Gun - 7
    McCabe & Mrs. Miller - 8
    Crimes of the Future - 8
    Videodrome - 9
    Valley Girl - 8
    Summer of '42 - 7
    In the Line of Fire - 8
    Passenger 57 - 7
    Everything Everywhere All at Once - 6



  19. #19
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Final weekend before the critics awards start. New categories got posted

    UPDATE:
    OUT: Roman J. Israel
    IN: Get Out
    *Poor reviews for RJI, and Get Out with a very high campaign make it seem like it's going for it all.

    DIRECTOR:
    OUT: Martin McDonagh
    IN: Jordan Peele

    ACTRESS:
    OUT: Kate Winslet
    IN: Margot Robbie

    ACTOR:
    Unchanged

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    OUT: Carrie Coon, Kristen Scott Thomas
    IN: Holly Hunter, Melissa Leo

    SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    Unchanged

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
    Unchanged

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
    Unchanged
    *What does Get Out take over? Lady Bird, Big Sick, Post, Three Billboards, or Shape of Water? Maybe The Post?

    CINEMATOGRAPHY:
    OUT: Wonder Wheel
    IN: Hostiles

    COSTUME DESIGN:
    Unchanged

    EDITING:
    OUT: Detroit
    IN: Darkest Hour

    MAKEUP/HAIR:
    OUT: Logan
    IN: Shape of Water

    PRODUCTION DESIGN (NEW
    IN: Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, and Greatest Showman

    SCORE (NEW)
    IN: Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, Wonderstruck, and Coco

    SONG:
    IN: Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Greatest Showman, Cries from Syria, and Call Me By Your Name

    SOUND EDITING: (NEW)
    IN: Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman

    SOUND MIXING: (NEW)
    IN: Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, Shape of Water, Last Jedi, and Beauty and the Beast

    VISUAL EFFECTS:
    IN: War for Planet of the Apes, Last Jedi, Blade Runner 2049, Shape of Water, and Dunkirk

    ANIMATED FEATURE:
    IN: Coco, Loving Vincent, Ferdinand, Lego Batman Movie, and Captain Underpants

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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  20. #20
    Evil mind, evil sword. Ivan Drago's Avatar
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    Quote Quoting Ezee E (view post)
    ANIMATED FEATURE:
    IN: Coco, Loving Vincent, Ferdinand, Lego Batman Movie, and Captain Underpants
    I'd bet on The Breadwinner (or Birdboy) to take one of those spots (preferably NOT Coco, Loving Vincent or ESPECIALLY Captain Underpants). It's from the directors of The Secret of Kells and Song of the Sea, who have been nominated twice before, and GKids always has good luck around this time.
    Last edited by Ivan Drago; 11-19-2017 at 06:28 AM.
    Last Five Films I've Seen (Out of 5)

    The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse (Mackesy, 2022) 4.5
    Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Crawford, 2022) 4
    Confess, Fletch (Mottola, 2022) 3.5
    M3GAN (Johnstone, 2023) 3.5
    Turning Red (Shi, 2022) 4.5
    Tokyo Story (Ozu, 1953) 5

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  21. #21
    Kung Fu Hippie Watashi's Avatar
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    Spirit Award Nominations

    Last 4 Spirit Award Best Feature Winners have gone to take home Best Picture at the Oscars.

    I have a feeling this will be the most indie-heavy Oscars yet.

    Get Out is definitely getting nominated for Best Picture and Director.

    Saoirse Ronan and Greta Gerwig are almost locks for Actress and Screenplay.

    Should be interesting.
    Sure why not?

    STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (Rian Johnson) - 9
    STRONGER (David Gordon Green) - 6
    THE DISASTER ARTIST (James Franco) - 7
    THE FLORIDA PROJECT (Sean Baker) - 9
    LADY BIRD (Greta Gerwig) - 8


    "Hitchcock is really bad at suspense."
    - Stay Puft

  22. #22
    Moderator Dead & Messed Up's Avatar
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    I'm wondering if Wonder Woman has a shot. I can imagine voters wanting to vote for that to offset the sexual harassment headlines. "But we like women, see?"

  23. #23
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    With 10 slots and a weak field, "Wonder Woman" definitely has a chance.

  24. #24
    Kung Fu Hippie Watashi's Avatar
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    I could see Wonder Woman getting nominated. Logan too.

    This is also another a year where Best Actress nominees has dominated Best Actor.

    Oldman will probably win because he has no competition, but Actress is full of people like Ronan, McDormand, Hawkins, Robbie, and Streep.

    I still think Dunkirk is the film to topple though.
    Sure why not?

    STAR WARS: THE LAST JEDI (Rian Johnson) - 9
    STRONGER (David Gordon Green) - 6
    THE DISASTER ARTIST (James Franco) - 7
    THE FLORIDA PROJECT (Sean Baker) - 9
    LADY BIRD (Greta Gerwig) - 8


    "Hitchcock is really bad at suspense."
    - Stay Puft

  25. #25
    Administrator Ezee E's Avatar
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    Best Feature
    “Call Me by Your Name”
    “The Florida Project”
    “Get Out”
    “Lady Bird”
    “The Rider”

    Best Director
    Jonas Carpignano, “A Ciambra”
    Luca Guadagnino, “Call Me by Your Name”
    Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
    Benny and Josh Safdie, “Good Time”
    ChloĆ© Zhao, “The Rider”

    Best First Feature:
    “Columbus”
    “Ingrid Goes West”
    “Menashe”
    “Oh Lucy”
    “Patti Cake$”

    Best Female Lead
    Salma Hayek, “Beatriz at Dinner”
    Francis McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
    Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
    Shinobu Terajima, “Oh Lucy”
    Regina Williams, “Life and Nothing More”

    Best Male Lead
    Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
    Harris Dickinson, “Beach Rats”
    James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
    Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
    Robert Pattinson, “Good Time”

    Best Supporting Female:
    Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
    Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
    Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
    Lois Smith, “Marjorie Prime”
    Taliah Lennice Webster, “Good Time”

    Best Supporting Male
    Nnamdi Asomugha, “Crown Heights”
    Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”
    Barry Keoghan, “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”
    Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    Bennie Safdie, “Good Time”

    Best Screenplay
    “Lady Bird”
    “The Lovers”
    “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
    “Get Out”
    “Beatriz at Dinner”

    Best First Screenplay
    “Donald Cried”
    “The Big Sick”
    “Women Who Kill”
    “Columbus”
    “Ingrid Goes West”

    Best Cinematography
    “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”
    “Columbus”
    “Beach Rats”
    “Call Me by Your Name”
    “The Rider”

    Best Editing
    “Good Time”
    “Call Me by Your Name”
    “The Rider”
    “Get Out”
    “I, Tonya”

    John Cassavetes Award
    “A Ghost Story”
    “Dayveon”
    “Life and Nothing More”
    “Most Beautiful Island”
    “The Transfiguration”

    Robert Altman Award
    “Mudbound”

    Best Documentary
    “The Departure”
    “Faces Places”
    “Last Men in Aleppo”
    “Motherland”
    “Quest”

    Best International Film
    “A Fantastic Woman”
    “BPM”
    “Lady Macbeth”
    “I Am Not a Witch”
    “Loveless”

    Piaget Producers Award
    Giulia Caruso & Ki Jin Kim
    Ben LeClair
    Summer Shelton

    Annual Kiehl’s Someone to Watch Award
    Amman Abassi, “Dayveon”
    Justin Chon, “Gook”

    Truer Than Fiction Award
    Shevaun Mizrahi, “Distant Constellation”
    Jonathan Olshefski, “Quest”
    Jeff Unay, “Cage Figher”

    Annual Bonnie Award
    So Young Kim
    Chloe Zhao
    Lynn Shelton

    Barbarian - ***
    Bones and All - ***
    Tar - **


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