Del Toro has never been the box office draw though. But hey, I was wrong about Edgar Wright and Baby Driver.Quoting Henry Gale (view post)
And I've never won this game so there's always that.
Del Toro has never been the box office draw though. But hey, I was wrong about Edgar Wright and Baby Driver.Quoting Henry Gale (view post)
And I've never won this game so there's always that.
I don't think that movie is going to make much more than $50 million domestic. It looks drab, mainstream audience aren't going to go for a monster romance movie, and it opens in December when Christmas season is firing up as well as the Star Wars marketing campaign.
That is probably a good estimate, since that would put it around the numbers of Fences, Lion, and Manchester by the Sea last year. But then again, you never know with awards-movies which will gain momentum and when.Quoting Skitch (view post)
Perhaps they'll play up the Octavia Spencer factor enough and bring out that Hidden Figures audience! (Hahaha.. Imagine knowing nothing else about it....)
Last 11 things I really enjoyed:
Speed Racer (Wachowski/Wachowski, 2008)
Safe (Haynes, 1995)
South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut (Parker, 1999)
Beastie Boys Story (Jonze, 2020)
Bad Trip (Sakurai, 2020)
What's Up Doc? (Bogdanovich, 1972)
Diva (Beineix, 1981)
Delicatessen (Caro/Jeunet, 1991)
The Hunger (Scott, 1983)
Pineapple Express (Green, 2008)
Chungking Express (Wong, 1994)
Anyway, I'm bummed I missed out on taking part in one of these leagues for the second time in a row. I blame the new Television forum bumping The Kitchen Sink lower down that I don't see it as easily.
Last 11 things I really enjoyed:
Speed Racer (Wachowski/Wachowski, 2008)
Safe (Haynes, 1995)
South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut (Parker, 1999)
Beastie Boys Story (Jonze, 2020)
Bad Trip (Sakurai, 2020)
What's Up Doc? (Bogdanovich, 1972)
Diva (Beineix, 1981)
Delicatessen (Caro/Jeunet, 1991)
The Hunger (Scott, 1983)
Pineapple Express (Green, 2008)
Chungking Express (Wong, 1994)
Sorry you missed it. I did put an invite in both the Film Discussion Thread and Random Thoughts, which is about the maximum I can do without feeling like I'm annoying people. Hope you can catch it next time round.Quoting Henry Gale (view post)
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
NEW POST button is your friend.Quoting Henry Gale (view post)
Yep, only thing I use.Quoting Dukefrukem (view post)
I think history is going to reveal that I should have taken Pitch Perfect 3 over Ready Player One.
OCTOBER RELEASES
Oct. 6
Blade Runner 2049 - Ivan/TGM
The Florida Project - dreamdead
Oct. 13
The Foreigner - Skitch/TGM
Happy Death Day - Winston/dreamdead
Oct. 20
Geostorm - Skitch/Duke
Only the Brave - Skitch
The Snowman - Ivan/dreamdead
Boo 2! A Madea Halloween - Ivan/TGM
Leatherface - Duke
Oct 27
Jigsaw - Ivan/Duke
Thank You For Your Service - Ivan
Notable unpicked releases:
The Mountain Between Us (Oct 6)
My Little Pony (Oct 6)
Marshall (Oct 13)
Professor Marston and the Wonder Women (Oct 13)
Same Kind of Different As Me (Oct 20)
All I See is You (Oct 27)
Suburbicon (Oct 27)
Last edited by Spinal; 10-02-2017 at 06:51 PM.
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
Ha. I picked The Mountain Between Us in the summer league, but not here.
Wait, never mind, it's Only the Brave that I picked.
Carry on.
Today we begin. And since The Florida Project is starting out on only 4 screens, it's really all about Blade Runner 2049 this week.
TGM selected the film in the 2nd round, whereas Ivan was able to snag it in the 3rd. Undoubtedly the film is highly anticipated by a certain group of movie lovers. The question is: how big is that group?
The original Blade Runner made $27.5 million in its initial run. Even translated into 2017 dollars, that's still only $83 million. On the other hand, the new film benefits from decades of critical assessment, citing the original as a landmark in sci-fi cinema.
Denis Villeneuve is a strong, smart director and Ryan Gosling is a strong lead. The movie has received favorable reviews.
But will this translate to broad box office appeal?
Game on!
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
$4 million Thursday night says yes.
During our draft, I was thinking about $100 million. You think higher?Quoting Dukefrukem (view post)
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
I think it may open with $60
I actually got into an argument online where a brony was trying to convince me that My Little Pony: The Movie was going to win the box office weekend.
It didn't last long.
Last Five Films I've Seen (Out of 5)
The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse (Mackesy, 2022) 4.5
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Crawford, 2022) 4
Confess, Fletch (Mottola, 2022) 3.5
M3GAN (Johnstone, 2023) 3.5
Turning Red (Shi, 2022) 4.5
Tokyo Story (Ozu, 1953) 5
615 Film
Letterboxd
Ooof... Heading to $35Quoting Dukefrukem (view post)
Yeah, that's what I was worried about. Too much of a 'thinker' for mainstream audiences.Quoting Dukefrukem (view post)
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
Boy can I pick 'em!
The release date for Death Wish has moved to Mar 2, meaning it's still in play for this season. However Winston and I will no longer get the holiday weekend. Sigh ...
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
Blade Runner 2049 is going to end up with around $45 million for the entire first week, meaning that it's almost certainly going to fall short of $100 million. If all the die-hard fans rushed out to see it the first week, the drop-off could be significant. Bad news for Ivan and TGM.
Two releases of note today, as far as our game is concerned:
Happy Death Day has some things going for it. It's got the Halloween season, a high concept premise and decent enough reviews. Winston and dreamdead both selected it as a 6th rounder. If it captures the public imagination, it could be a key early success for both of those players.
The Foreigner is on shakier footing. Reviews are not great and it's unclear how much of a draw the film's retirement-age action stars are in 2017. Still, TGM selected it as an 8th rounder and Skitch as a 9th rounder, so any momentum at all should be enough to keep them satisfied.
The Florida Project is now playing on 33 screens. Still not enough to start accumulating points for dreamdead.
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
For my sixth round sleeper hit, I bank on Murica...feeling good about this selection.
Blade Runner 2049 fell off by around 50% this week, meaning that it's on its way to around $85-$90 million dollars (for scoring purposes). This would be slightly more than the original film made, when adjusted for inflation.
Happy Death Day is up over $30 million in its first week and still has the Halloween season to go. This is looking like a great pick for Winston and dreamdead, considering what's typically available in round 6
The Florida Project update: 112 screens this week.
Lots of action in regards to new openers:
The favorite to take #1 this week is Boo 2! A Madea Halloween. Reviews thus far are terrible, but it likely doesn't make any difference in this case. Critics hated the last one too. This film was taken in the 4th round by Ivan and as the 11th pick overall (3rd round) by TGM. My suspicion is that the film went a little bit early in both cases, but we'll see what happens.
Geostorm is a big-budget climate disaster film that will be playing on a lot of screens. But it's also getting savaged by critics and you can't really make the argument that it's escapism with the awful natural disasters that the world has faced in the past few months. It was picked in the 5th round by Skitch and the 6th round by Duke.
Skitch used his 7th round pick on Only the Brave, a film that went undrafted in League B. Considering it's the only new release this week getting great reviews, it may very well end up stealing some of Geostorm's manly men vs. natural disaster thunder. It's playing on fewer screens, at least for now. It will be interesting to see if that changes.
Meanwhile, The Snowman has already tallied 100 'rotten' reviews and that could be nothing short of a disaster for dreamdead, who took it in the 3rd round. Ivan took it as an 8th rounder, and can therefore more easily absorb what's shaping up to be a disappointment.
The final question is whether or not Leatherface will register at all for Duke. It's supposed to receive a limited release today. But it's already premiered on TV and it's getting a simultaneous video on-demand release, which is typically not a good sign. Box Office Mojo doesn't yet have a page for it, so I'm a bit in the dark on this one.
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
There were a few movies on last year's Winter season that ended up with $0 due to no release or not enough screens. eek.
"Instead of seeing any of this crap, why not check to see if the excellent The Florida Project is playing in your area? Or go for a walk. Or sit quietly. Just don't go see Geostorm, please." - The AV Club
Coming to America (Landis, 1988) **
The Beach Bum (Korine, 2019) *1/2
Us (Peele, 2019) ***1/2
Fugue (Smoczynska, 2018) ***1/2
Prisoners (Villeneuve, 2013) ***1/2
Shadow (Zhang, 2018) ***
Oslo, August 31st (J. Trier, 2011) ****
Climax (Noé, 2018) **1/2
Fighting With My Family (Merchant, 2019) **
Upstream Color (Carruth, 2013) ***
I saw it today because I have MoviePass and I'm writing about it soon for the website I write for.Quoting Spinal (view post)
I still wish I read that quote beforehand.
Last Five Films I've Seen (Out of 5)
The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse (Mackesy, 2022) 4.5
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Crawford, 2022) 4
Confess, Fletch (Mottola, 2022) 3.5
M3GAN (Johnstone, 2023) 3.5
Turning Red (Shi, 2022) 4.5
Tokyo Story (Ozu, 1953) 5
615 Film
Letterboxd