Fantasy Movie League: October 2017 - March 2018

[Winston*]

Hmm. Under the new Netflix rules I think I might've won League A. Losing a 3rd rounder is a big hit.

[Spinal]

Grading my past assessment:

League B

TGM
Best pick: Insidious: The Last Key, 9th round Yep!
Maybe a stretch: Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, 3rd round Yep!

DUKE
Best pick: Proud Mary, 9th round Nope!
Maybe a stretch: Pacific Rim: Uprising, 3rd round Eh, it's doing all right.

SPINAL
Best pick: Peter Rabbit, 4th round Nope!
Maybe a stretch: Red Sparrow, 6th round Yep!

TRANSMOGRIFIER
Best pick: Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, 4th round Yep!
Maybe a stretch: The Post, 6th round Nope!

DREAMDEAD
Best pick: A Wrinkle in Time, 1st round Nope!
Maybe a stretch: Murder on the Orient Express, 2nd round Eh, it didn't do terribly.

PREDICTED WINNER: transmogrifier - I have a bad feeling that we made a mistake letting Jumanji fall so far. trans could have 3 cappers on his hands, or close to it. Yep!

[Spinal]

And this one ... let's see ...

While we wait for dreamdead's final pick, a little knee-jerk reaction to League A's picks.

LAZLO
Best pick: Proud Mary, 8th round Nope!
Maybe a reach: Tomb Raider, 3rd round Eh, it's doing all right.

WINSTON
Best Pick: A Bad Moms Christmas, 7th round Yep!
Maybe a reach: Pacific Rim: Uprising, 4th round Eh, it's doing all right.

SKITCH
Best Pick: Pitch Perfect 3, 3rd round Yep!
Maybe a reach: Geostorm, 5th round Yep!

IVAN DRAGO
Best Pick: The Greatest Showman, 5th round Yep!
Maybe a reach: Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, 4th round Yep!

EZEE
Best Pick: Ferdinand, 6th round Yep!
Maybe a reach: The Star, 4th round Yep!

PREDICTED WINNER: Ivan Drago - This may turn out to be a curse, as opposed to a compliment, but I think Ivan's got 2 cappers and strong picks up and down the line. Nope!

[Spinal]

A Wrinkle in Time finishes its run: $86,972,756


Ivan Drago finishes with $606,989,945

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[Spinal]

Updated!

League A:

Lazlo $608,676,177

Remaining films in play:
Tomb Raider (1 week)
Sherlock Gnomes (2 weeks)

Ivan Drago $606,989,945 (final tally)

Skitch $614,850,374 (final tally)

Winston $540,274,219

Remaining films in play:
Ready Player One (3 weeks)
Pacific Rim Uprising (2 weeks)

Ezee $617,407,512.00

Remaining films in play:
Isle of Dogs (3 weeks)

[Spinal]

Updated!

League B:

TGM $595,207,676

Remaining films in play:
Sherlock Gnomes (2 weeks)

Duke $564,605,992

Remaining films in play:
Pacific Rim Uprising (2 weeks)

Spinal $619,715,979

Remaining films in play:
Ready Player One (3 weeks)
Tomb Raider (1 week)

transmogrifier $942,219,257 (final tally)

dreamdead $320,728,677

Remaining films in play:
God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness (3 weeks)

[Ezee E]

League A looks like it could be a horse race to the end!

[Spinal]

Updated lifetime rankings!

1. transmogrifier .529
2. Winston .353
3. Skitch .275
4. Henry Gale .167
5. Ezee .157
6. Ivan Drago .058
7. TGM .024
8. Lazlo .019
9. Spinal -.020
10. Duke -.061
11. Gizmo -.176
12. dreamdead -.308

(The most recent season has been counted, but there is still one round in each league that is too close to call.)

[transmogrifier]

What do the numbers represent here?

[Skitch]

Yeah I'm confused. Both by the large gap of trans and why dreamdead is 12th but has a 3rd place score? Nothing against you trans just wow is that a huge margin.

[Dukefrukem]

Yeah I'm confused. Both by the large gap of trans and why dreamdead is 12th but has a 3rd place score? Nothing against you trans just wow is that a huge margin.

Those are negative scores.

[Spinal]

The number of times you picked the highest grossing film in a round - the number of times you picked the lowest grossing film in a round / the number of rounds played. If your film got bumped, the round is not counted for you.

Trans won 7 (most likely 8) rounds in the current game.

[transmogrifier]

Ha, okay. Small sample size working in my favor since I’ve only played twice...

[Spinal]

More stats!

In this new formula, I tried to calculate how close you came to making the best choice available. Here's how it works:

For each pick, I look to see if you made the best choice on the board. In other words, did you select the film that would earn you the most money? If you did, you get a '0'. That's the best score possible per pick. If you didn't, I calculate the difference between your pick and the best pick on the board.

Example (all numbers in millions):

Player A selects Beauty and the Beast. This film capped and was the best film available. This player gets a '0'.
Player B selects LEGO Batman which makes $151. However, Doctor Strange was still on the board and made a $200 score. This player gets '49' for this pick. (200-151)

Essentially, the score represents the number (in millions) that you left on the board by not picking the ideal film.

For later rounds, I also took note of the top undrafted film for the season in order to make calculations. I also made sure to check to see that the film had been announced at the time of the draft. (In other words, nobody got penalized for passing on Get Out.) If your film got moved and you had to pick another one, that pick was not calculated for these purposes.

OK, all that being said, here's the lifetime rankings of all players with number of seasons they've played being in parentheses: (NOTE: the most recent game was not included since I need final tallies in order to calculate it.)

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1. Winston 45.38 (3)
2. Skitch 49.10 (4)
3. Lazlo 50.82 (5)
4. Henry Gale 51.94 (2)
5. Ivan 52.14 (5)
6. Ezee 52.26 (5)
7. Gizmo 57.59 (2)
8. Duke 59.78 (5)
9. Spinal 61.41 (5)
10. TGM 67.64 (4)
11. dreamdead 67.72 (2)
12. transmogrifier 68.44 (1)

Now your first question will be, what the heck? How is trans on the bottom? I thought he was at the top in your last rankings. The reason is that I am only counting his first season of play. This particular season happened to have It in it. Because of the way I am scoring this, a film like It that slips through the cracks wreaks havoc on the scores. Pretty much everyone's scores were elevated that season. For trans, there just isn't other data to balance it out so far. He will almost certainly rocket back to the top based on the current season, once I calculate it.

TGM's score was likewise inflated by the It season, as he had a string of underperforming films while It kept passing by time and time again.

]

So, yes, like any stat, it's imperfect, particularly with a small sample size. But I thought it might be fun to share.

Some other fun stats from this exercise:

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BEST ONE-SEASON SCORE OF ALL-TIME - 14.11, Winston (Summer 2016)
LONGEST STREAK OF PICKING THE TOP FILM ON THE BOARD - 3, Lazlo (Summer 2015) Minions, Jurassic World, Pitch Perfect 2
LONGEST STREAK OF NOT PICKING THE TOP FILM ON THE BOARD - 9, Ezee (Summer 2017)

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Your worst picks of all-time:

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TGM - The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature (Summer 2017, Round 5) $27
Could have had: It $200

Ezee - Baywatch (Summer 2017, Round 3) $56
Could have had: It $200

Ivan - Crimson Peak (Winter 2015, Round 2) $30
Could have had: Deadpool $200

Duke - King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (Summer 2017, Round 4) $38
Could have had: It $200

Spinal - Rough Night (Summer 2017, Round 4) $22
Could have had: It $200

Lazlo - King Arthur: Legend of the Sword (Summer 2017, Round 4) $38
Could have had: It $200

Skitch - Bad Santa 2 (Winter 2016, Round 3) $18
Could have had: The Boss Baby $139
(Technically, Skitch also skipped over It to select Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, but was able to snag It later. So I chose something else.)

Henry Gale - Silence (Winter 2016, Round 8) $6
Could have had: Split $117

Winston - T2: Trainspotting (Winter 2016, Round 9) $1
Could have had: Split $117
(Like Skitch, Winston passed on It a few times. But, since he ended up with it eventually, I chose a different pick.)

Gizmo - Pandemic (Summer 2016, Round 8) $0
Could have had: Sully $108

dreamdead - The Dark Tower (Summer 2017, Round 4) $46
Could have had: It $200

transmogrifier - LEGO Ninjango (Summer 2017, Round 5) $52
Could have had: It $200

]

[transmogrifier]

Me two days ago: stats are fun!
Me now: stats suck. Can’t trust ‘em.

[Ezee E]

It and Split....

[Spinal]

Tomb Raider has ended its run: $55,766,569

League A:

Lazlo $617,824,082

Remaining films in play:
Sherlock Gnomes (1 week)

Ivan Drago $606,989,945 (final tally)

Skitch $614,850,374 (final tally)

Winston $580,111,647

Remaining films in play:
Ready Player One (2 weeks)
Pacific Rim Uprising (1 week)

Ezee $623,409,442

Remaining films in play:
Isle of Dogs (2 weeks)

League B:

TGM $601,733,102

Remaining films in play:
Sherlock Gnomes (1 week)

Duke $570,747,067

Remaining films in play:
Pacific Rim Uprising (1 week)

Spinal $656,034,811

Remaining films in play:
Ready Player One (2 weeks)

transmogrifier $942,219,257 (final tally)

dreamdead $322,224,888

Remaining films in play:
God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness (2 weeks)

[Spinal]

The top ranked UNDRAFTED film for each season we have played:
(Note: the film's release date had to be announced at the time of our draft. Numbers in millions, first 4 weeks only.)

Summer 2015 - War Room ($52)

Winter 2015 - Miracles from Heaven ($49)

Summer 2016 - The Shallows ($53)

Winter 2016 - The Shack ($51)

Summer 2017 - 47 Meters Down ($40)

Winter 2017 - I Can Only Imagine ($71)

Four of these are Christian dramas. The other two are about shark attacks. Now we know Match Cut's blind spots.

[Ivan Drago]

I thought Get Out went undrafted, too?

[Spinal]

Release date wasn't announced at the time of the draft, so I didn't count it.

[Spinal]

The following films have ended their runs:

Pacific Rim: Uprising $58,083,740
Sherlock Gnomes $38,151,456

Lazlo finishes with $621,152,051 which will be good for a 2nd place finish in League A.

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TGM finishes with $605,061,071 which will earn a 3rd place finish in League B.

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Duke finishes with $572,679,672, good for 4th place in League B.

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League A:

Lazlo $621,152,051 (final tally)

Ivan Drago $606,989,945 (final tally)

Skitch $614,850,374 (final tally)

Winston $597,837,935

Remaining films in play:
Ready Player One (1 week)

Ezee $630,919,116

Remaining films in play:
Isle of Dogs (1 week)

League B:

TGM $605,061,071 (final tally)

Duke $572,679,672 (final tally)

Spinal $671,828,494

Remaining films in play:
Ready Player One (1 week)

transmogrifier $942,219,257 (final tally)

dreamdead $322,400,686

Remaining films in play:
God's Not Dead: A Light in Darkness (1 week)

[Ezee E]

YUSSS.

[Winston*]

Fuck Netflix.

[Spinal]

Yeah, I was really hoping not to have the Cloverfield ruling make an impact on the final outcome, but it looks like it has.

[Spinal]

FINAL SCORES

League A:

1. Ezee - $635,579,301
2. Lazlo - $621,152,051
3. Skitch - $614,850,374
4. Winston - $607,919,393
5. Ivan Drago - $606,989,945

Less than $30 million separating all players!

League B:

1. transmogrifier - $942,219,257
2. Spinal - $681,909,952
3. TGM - $605,061,071
4. Duke - $572,679,672
5. dreamdead - $322,492,506