You are right, and that point can easily be made without shitting on people who disagree.
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I had the all you can eat fried chicken meal today at the the nihilist pancake house in The Big Lebowski.
Ezee, what are your predictions this year for the major categories?
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Damnnnn, Parasite winning a historic win for SAG Ensemble award (first foreign cast to do so, and only the second to be nominated after Life Is Beautiful, and that was way before they opened up the membership so their tastes have been more common) just gets my hope up for it being the Best Picture dark horse upset against 1917 (a frontrunner after it won PGA). Let's see what DGA and WGA will bring. But so glad for this win anyway!!!
Blessed images.
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Sad Cho Yeo-jeong (the rich mom) wasn't there too because she has a K-series currently going on (she only managed a Golden Globes appearance). But still!
Picture - still pondering on, but I think Once Upon A Time In Hollywood... Hollywood story, A+ actors, history that jives with majority of voters. HAS females in it. It's this or Parasite.
Director - Bong Joon-Ho.
Actor - Phoenix
Actress - Zelwegger now... but I'm mostly like, "Really? Did people see this? This comeback story... It's not like she's being casted in anything else. She may very well disappear again."
Supporting Actor - Pitt. Pesci could've stolen it if he remotely tried, but he obviously has no interest in this type of thing. Pitt will get a standing ovation.
Supporting Actress - Dern. Was wrong to think Lopez's star power would've led the way. Ego and not exactly a actor's actor in a way makes sense that she didn't get nominated. Dern is Hollywood royalty and overdue. Just a weird role that's winning.
The acting categories are probably locked at this point. Weakest frontrunner is Zellweger, but she still sweeps and doesn’t have anyone who can replace her. I’m not sure about Bong getting director though, since 1917’s very showy long take(s) align with what wins this category in past years, plus it’s in English (sadly I think still a hurdle for Bong), but we will know more at DGA. And Hollywood, as much as its surface seems to indicate a Best Picture win back this year, doesn’t look to have any support at any industry guild, even after its visible and televised Golden Globes wins (Parasite gets the editing guild awards too). Its likeliest support in a guild win was SAG (considering the star-studded cast) and they went with Parasite. I think it comes down to 1917 as frontrunner vs Parasite as a possibly strong upset. We will probably know surer when we have 2 more guild awards to look on.
The SAG award for Parasite is huge. That pretty much pushes it into spoiler territory for 1917 (which won PGA ... arguably the best predictor for BP there is). Still, actors make up the largest group in the Academy, so SAG best cast award is also a good indicator. I think it's looking like this right now in order of likelihood ...
1. 1917
2. Parasite
3. OUATIH
4. The Irishman
5. Joker
I do wonder if a male-only movie (minus one scene) could win it at the Oscars. PGA and DGA is a little different. 1917 didn't even get an ensemble nomination is the thing holding it back for me.
Big Short is mostly an all-men movie too.
The way the Oscars vote isn't necessarily a "pick your favorite" either. There's a preferential ballot, which you do need to take into account, in that what's likely to be more of a #2, #3, #4 on people's lists, and what will others put at the bottom? This is a big piece of why La La Land lost, because if it wasn't your #1 of the year, people tended to hate it.
This is why I'm starting to also think Parasite could win, because I don't know one person who hasn't liked it.
My money is on 1917 winning Best Picture.
I'm not reading many critics thoughts, but I'm generally shocked at Phoenix being the front runner here.
While I do genuinely believe he gave a great performance, if not exactly the best performance of the year, from what I’ve gathered, Phoenix at the front appears to be more of a “he’s been overdue a win” situation, similar to when Leo finally won for The Revenant.
That said, assuming he does win, I just think it’ll be pretty cool that the Joker would then be a 2 time Oscar winning role.
Well it would be nice if the academy would catch up to itself and give the awards to the people that deserved them in the years of their actual top performance.
Don’t disagree with you in the slightest there!
I'm perplexed by the frontrunner status of all the acting awards. I guess there's inside baseball politics involved and people think they are "due" but the idea that Dern, Renee Z, Brad, and JP are the consensus pick by all these awards bodies is very odd to me (of course I have zero interest in seeing Judy, so maybe I'm wrong about that one).
I can understand the front-runner status of Dern, Pitt, and Phoenix, but Zellweger is a bit of a mystery to me. It's an okay-to-pretty-good movie with a really solid performance, but it doesn't seem like many people saw it and it certainly didn't do gangbusters box office or stick to the cultural consciousness much beyond its Telluride premiere in September. But it was that weekend that it was decided that she was the front-runner and somehow she never relinquished that. Like, somewhere it was decided that she was gonna win it and everyone said, okay, that works for us. Feels similar to Glenn Close last year, even though she didn't end up winning. The math of how that decision gets made so far in advance is weird but it happens a lot.
Pretty weak year otherwise, and it doesn't seem like there's much marketing/publicity for anyone else.
I DO think there will be at least one surprise here. Most likely in one of the actress categories. If Scarlett didn't have a weird reputation from her interview bits throughout the year, I'd almost wonder if she'd be a frontrunner.
Well, weak if you're like the Academy and refuse to look beyond the narrow window they always look through. I get that there's more to it on a publicity front than just quality, but there's tons of good options that even they could sleep at night having chosen: Awkwafina, Lupita Nyong'o (who's already in the damn club!), Elisabeth Moss, Ana de Armas, Julianne Moore, just to name a few. It's frustrating that their taste is so unimaginative and tied to their misguided idea of "prestige." And I liked Zellweger and Judy, they're just not near the top of my list.
I'm just always bemused by the way it often seems to work, that sometime in August it was decided that this belongs to Zellweger and that nothing's happened to change that decision.
Hoping there's a surprise in the final results, like you say. There was last year.