Film Awards Talk - 2018

[Ezee E]

Discuss.

PRE LABOR DAY PREDICTIONS:
https://imgur.com/nC8UTvD
https://imgur.com/w9WkVWJ

SEPTEMBER 17TH:

BEST PICTURE:
OUT - Downsizing, Hostiles
IN - Lady Bird, Shape of Water

DIRECTOR:
OUT - Payne / Cooper
IN - Gerwig / Bigelow

ACTRESS:
OUT - Simmonds, Bening
IN - Ronan, Hawkins

ACTOR:
OUT - Damon
IN - Hanks

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
OUT - Pfeiffer, Chau, Wiig
IN - Metcalf, Janney, Coon

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
OUT - Harrelson
IN - ROCKWELL

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
NEW - Call Me By Your Name, Last Flag Flying, Molly's Game, Victoria and Abdul, Darkest Hour

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
NEW - The Post, Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Big Sick


-Downsizing and Hostiles are hit hard with my own reaction at Telluride.
-Awaiting Call Me By Your Name, which could very well be a movie that only hits hard at Indie and Critics lists... Looking forward to it.
-Get Out has high regard on the Gold Derby, but I currently don't see it doing a thing.
-NO idea what would win Best Picture at this time. The Post, without seeing a single image, has everything going for it with no frontrunners right now.

[Ivan Drago]

My best guess for Best Picture is Darkest Hour. It's based on a historical figure and takes place during a time where the world is in political peril. It also mirrors the state of America today too much for the Academy not to reward.

[Ezee E]

My best guess for Best Picture is Darkest Hour. It's based on a historical figure and takes place during a time where the world is in political peril. It also mirrors the state of America today too much for the Academy not to reward.

I hope not though. What an atypical, British biopic. Give me Dunkirk anyday.

[Idioteque Stalker]

After its TIFF win, is the McDonagh movie an actual Best Picture contender? In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths would beg to differ.

[Ezee E]

After its TIFF win, is the McDonagh movie an actual Best Picture contender? In Bruges and Seven Psychopaths would beg to differ.

Not on my list at least. But I'm looking forward to seeing it!

[Ivan Drago]

What about Mark Felt? I saw the trailer for that before Detroit and got a Spotlight vibe from it.

[Ezee E]

Discuss.

PRE LABOR DAY PREDICTIONS:
https://imgur.com/nC8UTvD
https://imgur.com/w9WkVWJ

SEPTEMBER 17TH:

BEST PICTURE:
OUT - Downsizing, Hostiles
IN - Lady Bird, Shape of Water

DIRECTOR:
OUT - Payne / Cooper
IN - Gerwig / Bigelow

ACTRESS:
OUT - Simmonds, Bening
IN - Ronan, Hawkins

ACTOR:
OUT - Damon
IN - Hanks

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
OUT - Pfeiffer, Chau, Wiig
IN - Metcalf, Janney, Coon

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
OUT - Harrelson
IN - ROCKWELL

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
NEW - Call Me By Your Name, Last Flag Flying, Molly's Game, Victoria and Abdul, Darkest Hour

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
NEW - The Post, Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Big Sick


-Downsizing and Hostiles are hit hard with my own reaction at Telluride.
-Awaiting Call Me By Your Name, which could very well be a movie that only hits hard at Indie and Critics lists... Looking forward to it.
-Get Out has high regard on the Gold Derby, but I currently don't see it doing a thing.
-NO idea what would win Best Picture at this time. The Post, without seeing a single image, has everything going for it with no frontrunners right now.

OCTOBER UPDATE:

-BEST PICTURE: No changes, but Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool is ready to drop off. Haven't heard of any type of release. Not convinced that Get Out, Three Billboards..., Big Sick, or Florida Project take a spot, but they're in the waiting. NEED A PREVIEW FOR THE PTA.

DIRECTOR: Still not convinced on Shape of Water, despite it being high on many others' list. I think people will think it's too odd.

ACTRESS: Also unchanged.

ACTOR: Unchanged until I can be convinced that Daniel Day-Lewis' movie might be Inherent Vice or The Master. If it's Inherent Vice, then I'll probably put Gylenhaal or Hugh Jackman in his spot.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OUT - Octavia Spencer
IN - Kristin Scott Thomas
*If Big Sick continues to show some momentum, Holly Hunter could be the rep of the movie. Golden Globes will need to show some wins. Need to see how big Carrie Coon is in The Post, but that could drop off right away.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Unchanged, when does Call Me By Your Name come out? I feel like there's no way that two get ripped, but the roles on gold derby seem to show otherwise. I'd like (wish) to think Mark Hamill could have a great role.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
OUT - "Darkest Hour" fell off the nominees list for some reason. Is it original?
OUT - Last Flag Flying. That preview looks like schmaltz.
IN - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
IN - Mudbound

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*Unchanged, and what a category this year. Darkest Hour is apparently original. Get Out seems like it'll get SOMETHING. For now, Three Billboards and Big Sick remain.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: NEW
IN - Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, Shape of Water, Wonderstruck, and Darkest Hour

COSTUME DESIGN: NEW
IN - Beauty and the Beast, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, and PTA

FILM EDITING: NEW
IN - Dunkirk, Get Out, The Post, Call Me By Your Name, and Detroit

MAKEUP and HAIR - NEW
IN - Darkest Hour, Shape of Water, and Logan

The other categories haven't shown up yet on gold derby.

[Ivan Drago]

ACTOR: Unchanged until I can be convinced that Daniel Day-Lewis' movie might be Inherent Vice or The Master. If it's Inherent Vice, then I'll probably put Gylenhaal or Hugh Jackman in his spot.


I'm worried that whatever studio is backing Phantom Thread will do to it what Paramount did to Silence last year and rush it out to theaters for a quick awards push with no marketing campaign. It's supposed to come out on Christmas Day and we haven't even seen a trailer for it yet.

[Ezee E]

I'm worried that whatever studio is backing Phantom Thread will do to it what Paramount did to Silence last year and rush it out to theaters for a quick awards push with no marketing campaign. It's supposed to come out on Christmas Day and we haven't even seen a trailer for it yet.

No trailer. Not even a promo pic.

Still wondering if it just gets pushed back at some point. But yeah, I think you're right.

There's apparently a Clint Eastwood movie still coming out too, but that started shooting in August I think...

[Peng]

Gary Oldman seems like a lock to win at this point; so many Oscar-friendly bits: historical figures, transformative effects, bombastic performance, being-overdue narrative, etc.

[Watashi]

Gary Oldman seems like a lock to win at this point; so many Oscar-friendly bits: historical figures, transformative effects, bombastic performance, being-overdue narrative, etc.

Plus he's way overdue. He's only been nominated once before.

[Ezee E]

Plus he's way overdue. He's only been nominated once before.

And seems to be well respected by everyone.

Willem Dafoe is getting the same treatment for Supporting Actor.

[Ivan Drago]

I would love it if Willem Dafoe won Best Supporting Actor. It's about time he got his due.

[Idioteque Stalker]

Users on gold derby seem to be underwhelmed by the Phantom Thread trailer. Not sure if that means anything or not. To me it looks like the most Oscar-y movie PTA has ever made, and Vicky Krieps sure got a lot of screen time in that trailer. Seems like a big Oscar movie at first blush, but I don't yet have a feel for industry reactions. For what it's worth I dropped Diane Kruger and added Krieps in my fantasy awards season game thing.

[Ezee E]

Users on gold derby seem to be underwhelmed by the Phantom Thread trailer. Not sure if that means anything or not. To me it looks like the most Oscar-y movie PTA has ever made, and Vicky Krieps sure got a lot of screen time in that trailer. Seems like a big Oscar movie at first blush, but I don't yet have a feel for industry reactions. For what it's worth I dropped Diane Kruger and added Krieps in my fantasy awards season game thing.

Still thinking on it. It may drop off completely for me, INCLUDING DDL. I'll have my update on Thursday.

[Idioteque Stalker]

Say it ain't so! :(

[Ezee E]

OCTOBER UPDATE:

-BEST PICTURE: No changes, but Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool is ready to drop off. Haven't heard of any type of release. Not convinced that Get Out, Three Billboards..., Big Sick, or Florida Project take a spot, but they're in the waiting. NEED A PREVIEW FOR THE PTA.

DIRECTOR: Still not convinced on Shape of Water, despite it being high on many others' list. I think people will think it's too odd.

ACTRESS: Also unchanged.

ACTOR: Unchanged until I can be convinced that Daniel Day-Lewis' movie might be Inherent Vice or The Master. If it's Inherent Vice, then I'll probably put Gylenhaal or Hugh Jackman in his spot.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OUT - Octavia Spencer
IN - Kristin Scott Thomas
*If Big Sick continues to show some momentum, Holly Hunter could be the rep of the movie. Golden Globes will need to show some wins. Need to see how big Carrie Coon is in The Post, but that could drop off right away.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Unchanged, when does Call Me By Your Name come out? I feel like there's no way that two get ripped, but the roles on gold derby seem to show otherwise. I'd like (wish) to think Mark Hamill could have a great role.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
OUT - "Darkest Hour" fell off the nominees list for some reason. Is it original?
OUT - Last Flag Flying. That preview looks like schmaltz.
IN - Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
IN - Mudbound

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*Unchanged, and what a category this year. Darkest Hour is apparently original. Get Out seems like it'll get SOMETHING. For now, Three Billboards and Big Sick remain.

CINEMATOGRAPHY: NEW
IN - Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, Shape of Water, Wonderstruck, and Darkest Hour

COSTUME DESIGN: NEW
IN - Beauty and the Beast, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour, Victoria and Abdul, and PTA

FILM EDITING: NEW
IN - Dunkirk, Get Out, The Post, Call Me By Your Name, and Detroit

MAKEUP and HAIR - NEW
IN - Darkest Hour, Shape of Water, and Logan

The other categories haven't shown up yet on gold derby.

NOVEMBER UPDATE:

PICTURE:
OUT - Detroit
IN - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
*Get Out is getting a good push from the studio. I could throw that in as a 10th. I haven't seen a single thing about Film Stars..., Darkest Hour, or Roman Israel...

DIRECTOR:
OUT - Kathryn Bigelow
IN - Martin McDonagh

ACTRESS:
Unchanged

ACTOR:
Unchanged.
Daniel Day-Lewis... I don't know if you'll make it to the end.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Unchanged

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Unchanged

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Unchanged

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Unchanged
*THis category is TOUGH.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
OUT - Wonderstruck
IN - Wonder Wheel
*Wonderful?

COSTUME DESIGN:
OUT - Victoria and Abdul
IN - Greatest Showman

EDITING
OUT - Detroit
IN - Darkest Hour

MAKEUP and HAIR
OUT - Shape of Water
IN - I, Tonya

That's all for now!

[Pop Trash]

LIFETIME ACHIEVEMENT AWARD:
Harvey Weinstein

[Ezee E]

Final weekend before the critics awards start. New categories got posted

UPDATE:
OUT: Roman J. Israel
IN: Get Out
*Poor reviews for RJI, and Get Out with a very high campaign make it seem like it's going for it all.

DIRECTOR:
OUT: Martin McDonagh
IN: Jordan Peele

ACTRESS:
OUT: Kate Winslet
IN: Margot Robbie

ACTOR:
Unchanged

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
OUT: Carrie Coon, Kristen Scott Thomas
IN: Holly Hunter, Melissa Leo

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Unchanged

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Unchanged

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Unchanged
*What does Get Out take over? Lady Bird, Big Sick, Post, Three Billboards, or Shape of Water? Maybe The Post?

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
OUT: Wonder Wheel
IN: Hostiles

COSTUME DESIGN:
Unchanged

EDITING:
OUT: Detroit
IN: Darkest Hour

MAKEUP/HAIR:
OUT: Logan
IN: Shape of Water

PRODUCTION DESIGN (NEW:)
IN: Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, and Greatest Showman

SCORE (NEW)
IN: Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Darkest Hour, Wonderstruck, and Coco

SONG:
IN: Coco, Beauty and the Beast, Greatest Showman, Cries from Syria, and Call Me By Your Name

SOUND EDITING: (NEW)
IN: Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, Last Jedi, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman

SOUND MIXING: (NEW)
IN: Dunkirk, Blade Runner 2049, Shape of Water, Last Jedi, and Beauty and the Beast

VISUAL EFFECTS:
IN: War for Planet of the Apes, Last Jedi, Blade Runner 2049, Shape of Water, and Dunkirk

ANIMATED FEATURE:
IN: Coco, Loving Vincent, Ferdinand, Lego Batman Movie, and Captain Underpants

[Ivan Drago]

ANIMATED FEATURE:
IN: Coco, Loving Vincent, Ferdinand, Lego Batman Movie, and Captain Underpants

I'd bet on The Breadwinner (or Birdboy) to take one of those spots (preferably NOT Coco, Loving Vincent or ESPECIALLY Captain Underpants). It's from the directors of The Secret of Kells and Song of the Sea, who have been nominated twice before, and GKids always has good luck around this time.

[Watashi]

Spirit Award Nominations (http://collider.com/2018-film-independent-spirit-awards-nominations-full-list/#call-me-by-your-name)

Last 4 Spirit Award Best Feature Winners have gone to take home Best Picture at the Oscars.

I have a feeling this will be the most indie-heavy Oscars yet.

Get Out is definitely getting nominated for Best Picture and Director.

Saoirse Ronan and Greta Gerwig are almost locks for Actress and Screenplay.

Should be interesting.

[Dead & Messed Up]

I'm wondering if Wonder Woman has a shot. I can imagine voters wanting to vote for that to offset the sexual harassment headlines. "But we like women, see?"

[Irish]

With 10 slots and a weak field, "Wonder Woman" definitely has a chance.

[Watashi]

I could see Wonder Woman getting nominated. Logan too.

This is also another a year where Best Actress nominees has dominated Best Actor.

Oldman will probably win because he has no competition, but Actress is full of people like Ronan, McDormand, Hawkins, Robbie, and Streep.

I still think Dunkirk is the film to topple though.

[Ezee E]

Best Feature
“Call Me by Your Name”
“The Florida Project”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Rider”

Best Director
Jonas Carpignano, “A Ciambra”
Luca Guadagnino, “Call Me by Your Name”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Benny and Josh Safdie, “Good Time”
Chloé Zhao, “The Rider”

Best First Feature:
“Columbus”
“Ingrid Goes West”
“Menashe”
“Oh Lucy”
“Patti Cake$”

Best Female Lead
Salma Hayek, “Beatriz at Dinner”
Francis McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Shinobu Terajima, “Oh Lucy”
Regina Williams, “Life and Nothing More”

Best Male Lead
Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Harris Dickinson, “Beach Rats”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Robert Pattinson, “Good Time”

Best Supporting Female:
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Lois Smith, “Marjorie Prime”
Taliah Lennice Webster, “Good Time”

Best Supporting Male
Nnamdi Asomugha, “Crown Heights”
Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”
Barry Keoghan, “The Killing of a Sacred Deer”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Bennie Safdie, “Good Time”

Best Screenplay
“Lady Bird”
“The Lovers”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“Get Out”
“Beatriz at Dinner”

Best First Screenplay
“Donald Cried”
“The Big Sick”
“Women Who Kill”
“Columbus”
“Ingrid Goes West”

Best Cinematography
“The Killing of a Sacred Deer”
“Columbus”
“Beach Rats”
“Call Me by Your Name”
“The Rider”

Best Editing
“Good Time”
“Call Me by Your Name”
“The Rider”
“Get Out”
“I, Tonya”

John Cassavetes Award
“A Ghost Story”
“Dayveon”
“Life and Nothing More”
“Most Beautiful Island”
“The Transfiguration”

Robert Altman Award
“Mudbound”

Best Documentary
“The Departure”
“Faces Places”
“Last Men in Aleppo”
“Motherland”
“Quest”

Best International Film
“A Fantastic Woman”
“BPM”
“Lady Macbeth”
“I Am Not a Witch”
“Loveless”

Piaget Producers Award
Giulia Caruso & Ki Jin Kim
Ben LeClair
Summer Shelton

Annual Kiehl’s Someone to Watch Award
Amman Abassi, “Dayveon”
Justin Chon, “Gook”

Truer Than Fiction Award
Shevaun Mizrahi, “Distant Constellation”
Jonathan Olshefski, “Quest”
Jeff Unay, “Cage Figher”

Annual Bonnie Award
So Young Kim
Chloe Zhao
Lynn Shelton

[Ezee E]

-Call me By Your Name" looks to be a real deal here.
-Get Out is doing all the right things in its campaign too.
-Cheers to "The Rider" noms. Wasn't sure if that was released this year.
-Mudbound gets kind of a shaft. Netflix doesn't know how to handle awards at all.
-Been saying Gerwig would get a Director nom at the Oscars, but missing here is kind of big.
-How the heck does "Florida Project" get a best feature nom but literally nothing else? I want Dafoe with that award.

[Russ]

-How the heck does "Florida Project" get a best feature nom but literally nothing else? I want Dafoe with that award.
I'm hearing a lot of blowback on this, with many people echoing your thoughts.

[Pop Trash]

I wonder if the Kevin Spacey controversy will affect Call Me By Your Name's chances? Isn't it about a 17-year-old boy hooking up with a 30-year-old dude? I haven't seen it, but I have a feeling this will be the most politicized awards show to date, what with Harvey "God" Weinstein being banished to Arizona indefinitely. So many people will be walking on egg shells and there have even been articles calling to cancel the Academy Awards. I have a sneaking suspicion this will help Lady Bird, esp. if the box office continues to do well.

[Peng]

It's 17 and 24, although yes there have been some real rumblings about this which will probably just intensify as we approach the awards season. Some even have grossly linked it to talks about Spacey. What doesn't help matter is the optics of Chalamet looking younger and Hammer looking older than their actual ages.

[Watashi]

It's gonna super awkward when Casey Affleck has to go up on stage and hand the award for Best Actress.

I hope Frances McDormand slaps him.

[Ezee E]

It's gonna super awkward when Casey Affleck has to go up on stage and hand the award for Best Actress.

I hope Frances McDormand slaps him.

I'll predict that Casey doesn't show up.

[Spinal]

-How the heck does "Florida Project" get a best feature nom but literally nothing else? I want Dafoe with that award.

The mediocre Good Time gets a directing nomination and Florida Project doesn't? Bizarre.

Also, no Ray Romano for Big Sick?

[Ezee E]

The mediocre Good Time gets a directing nomination and Florida Project doesn't? Bizarre.

Also, no Ray Romano for Big Sick?

Interesting voting as a whole. Big Sick's nominations are all over the place.

No idea what Match Cut's consensus will be. We tend to go all in on a movie, but I don't think there's a big favorite out of the group on the surface level.

[Ivan Drago]

How is Get Out considered an independent film when it was distributed by Universal?

That said, I'm happy over all the nominations for Columbus and Ingrid Goes West.

[baby doll]

How is Get Out considered an independent film when it was distributed by Universal?I may be incorrect on this, but I believe it was produced independently and then Universal acquired the distribution rights after the film was finished.

[Irish]

Blumhouse produced "Get Out." Universal only acted as distributor. (The two companies have a long standing first-look deal; ie: All of Blumhouse's films are distributed by Universal in the U.S., unless Universal passes on the property. Then Blumhouse usually sells it to Netflix or dumps it on iTunes).

[Ivan Drago]

I may be incorrect on this, but I believe it was produced independently and then Universal acquired the distribution rights after the film was finished.


Blumhouse produced "Get Out." Universal only acted as distributor. (The two companies have a long standing first-look deal; ie: All of Blumhouse's films are distributed by Universal in the U.S., unless Universal passes on the property. Then Blumhouse usually sells it to Netflix or dumps it on iTunes).

Thanks for clearing that up! That also explains why some of Blumhouse's stuff appears on Netflix out of nowhere through their Tilt brand (Sleight, Creep, Birth of the Dragon).

Knowing that, while I didn't think Get Out was great. . .I can't not root for Jason Blum. It's about time he earned awards recognition for a successful business model.

[Henry Gale]

Knowing that, while I didn't think Get Out was great. . .I can't not root for Jason Blum. It's about time he earned awards recognition for a successful business model.

Oft-forgotten fact: He also produced Whiplash!

[Ezee E]

Not really sure if a Gotham Award is the least bit relevant but:

Best Feature
Call Me by Your Name

Best Actress
Saoirse Ronan as Christine “Lady Bird” McPherson – Lady Bird

Best Actor
James Franco as Tommy Wiseau – The Disaster Artist

Audience Award
Get Out

Best Documentary
Strong Island

Bingham Ray Breakthrough Director Award
Jordan Peele – Get Out

Best Screenplay
Jordan Peele – Get Out

Breakthrough Actor
Timothée Chalamet as Elio Perlman – Call Me by Your Name

Gotham Jury Award for Ensemble Performance
Mudbound

Breakthrough Series – Long Form
Atlanta (FX Networks)

Breakthrough Series – Short Form
The Strange Eyes of Dr. Myes

Made in New York Award
Michael Kenneth Williams

[Watashi]

The Post is getting pretty stellar reviews with Streep being the standout.

Phantom Thread got early raves as well.

I have no idea what gets nominated for Best Picture.

[Pop Trash]

The Post is getting pretty stellar reviews with Streep being the standout.

Phantom Thread got early raves as well.


My perusings on Letterboxd tell me The Post is getting mostly average reviews (lots of 3 and 3.5 stars), but an average movie with Spielberg, Streep, and Hanks with a preachy liberal message will still get a bunch of nominations I'm sure.

[Watashi]

I don't know who you follow on Letterbxd, but the people I follow have been giving it in between the 4 and 5 star range.

[Pop Trash]

I don't know who you follow on Letterbxd, but the people I follow have been giving it in between the 4 and 5 star range.

Here's my favorite two star review:

"The cinematic equivalent of watching a Bill Maher episode while a white girl screams “Yasss queen!” in the background."

[Watashi]

Sounds great.

[Ezee E]

Here's my favorite two star review:

"The cinematic equivalent of watching a Bill Maher episode while a white girl screams “Yasss queen!” in the background."

Throw in some cool Kaminski lighting with a beam of light behind the girl, and you got it.

I hear it's more relaxed in an almost "Lincoln" type of way, so it can't be THAT preachy.

I want to say that I'm in for the sole reason of seeing Hanks do journalism-dialog, but I've only watched one Spielberg movie in the theater this decade, and that was Lincoln. How sad.

[Watashi]

National Board of Review Winners:

Best Film: The Post
Best Director: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Best Actor: Tom Hanks, The Post
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Post
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Best Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Best Ensemble: Get Out
Best Adapted Screenplay: Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
Best Original Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Foreign Language Film: Foxtrot
Best Documentary: Jane Best Directorial Debut: Jordan Peele, Get Out
Breakthrough Performance: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name Spotlight Award: Patty Jenkins and Gal Gadot, Wonder Woman
Freedom of Expression Award: First They Killed My Father and Let It Fall: Los Angeles 1982-1992

Top Five Foreign Language Films:
A Fantastic Woman
Frantz
Loveless
Summer 1993
The Square

Top Ten Films
Baby Driver
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Downsizing
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
Lady Bird
Logan
Phantom Thread

Top Ten Independent Films
Beatriz at Dinner
Brigsby Bear
A Ghost Story
Lady Macbeth
Logan Lucky
Loving Vincent
Menashe
Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer
Patti Cake$
Wind River

Top Five Documentaries
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Brimstone & Glory
Eric Clapton: Life in 12 Bars
Faces Places
Hell on Earth: The Fall of Syria and the Rise of ISIS

[Ezee E]

Logan love.

[Ivan Drago]

National Board of Review Winners:

Best Adapted Screenplay: Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist
Best Original Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

This fills my heart with so much joy and excitement.

[transmogrifier]

My perusings on Letterboxd tell me The Post is getting mostly average reviews (lots of 3 and 3.5 stars), but an average movie with Spielberg, Streep, and Hanks with a preachy liberal message will still get a bunch of nominations I'm sure.

Almost uniformly 3.5 for me as well... which is right where I expect it to land

[Spinal]

I liked Gerwig's screenplay more than her direction, but it's still really great to see her recognized. Such a talent.

[Henry Gale]

The thought that keeps coming back to me about Gerwig and Lady Bird is, "Imagine if everything came together with How I Met Your Dad and as a result she never got to make this..."

[Ezee E]

END OF NOVEMBeR:

Picture:
OUT: Film Stars Don't Die In Liverpool (nary a mention in anything right now. Movie is dead)
(Staying at eight movies)

DIRECTOR:
No changes
*Gerwig from Day one is looking like a good pick.

ACTRESS:
No changes

ACTOR:
No changes. Pending how things go, may switch Kaluuya for Denzel.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
OUT: Melissa Leo
IN: Lesley Manville
*WEAK Category.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
No changes
ALSO Weak

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
OUT: Film Stars Don't Die In Liverpool
IN: Disaster Artist

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
OUT: Shape of Water
IN: Get Out

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
OUT: Hostiles
IN: Wonderstruck

[Mysterious Dude]

I already thought Get Out was a little overpraised, but apparently it's going to be the movie of the year (http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2017).

[Grouchy]

Eh, if there's a film in that list that doesn't deserve to be there that's Dunkirk. Get Out is awesome.

Also, what the fuck? Since when is a 18-episode TV season the same as a film?

[Ezee E]

Eh, if there's a film in that list that doesn't deserve to be there that's Dunkirk. Get Out is awesome.

Also, what the fuck? Since when is a 18-episode TV season the same as a film?

That Twin Peaks talk on Film Twitter has been funny.

May as well put the new season of Game of Thrones on my list. It's certainly dumb, but whatever they want for their list I guess. That got more publicity then anything else from their top ten.

[Pop Trash]

Here's Slant's best films of 2017 featuring Match Cut's own Derek Smith:

https://www.slantmagazine.com/features/article/the-25-best-films-of-2017

[Pop Trash]

I already thought Get Out was a little overpraised, but apparently it's going to be the movie of the year (http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critics-list-the-top-10-movies-of-2017).

It's the movie of the year, but the movie of the year can have a few flaws. If it gets nominated, I believe it's the first supernatural horror (not counting Silence of the Lambs as 'supernatural' here) to be nominated for best picture since The Exorcist.

EDIT: shit, totally forgot that The Sixth Sense was nominated for BP.

[Ezee E]

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Actress, Drama - Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Best Actor, Drama - Gary Oldman!
Best Picture, Comedy - Lady Bird
Best Actress, Comedy - Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Best Limited Series - Big Little Lies
Best Director - Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Best Actor, Comedy/Musical - Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Best Musical / Comedy TV Series - Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Best Actor limited series or TV movie - Ewan McGregor, Fargo
Foreign Language - In the Fade
Screenplay - Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress - Alison Janney, I, Tonya
Animated Feature - Coco
Best Supporting Actress - limited series - Laura Dern, Big Little Lies
Best Actor - James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Best Song - This is Me, Greatest Showman
Best Original Score - Alexandre Desplat - The Shape of Water
Supporting Actor, Limited Series, Drama - Alexander Skarsgard, Big Little Lies
Best TV Series, Drama - The Handmaid's Tale
Best Actor - TV Series, Drama - Sterling K. Brown, This is Us
Best Actress, Drama - Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale
Best Actress, TV Series Comedy - Rachel Brosnahan, Mrs. Maisel
Supporting Actor - Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actress - Limited Series for Big Little Lies, Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies

[Dead & Messed Up]

For as much as I loathe the Golden Globes, for all the bullshit they espouse, Guillermo being able to stand on that stage, to have that platform to discuss his sincere love of monsters, makes me unreasonably happy.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykv23HpruCo

[Henry Gale]

The whole show was actually very good!

In everyone coalescing to drive a very specific and necessary point of view, the Me Too / Time's Up mantras united the room to become a swell of people in invigorated spirits and proud moods to expound passion on a platform that is usually reserved for nothing more than back-patting and drunken fun. At this point everyone both at home and on camera kinda gets the Globes mean very little in and of themselves, so why not make them mean something?

Seth's monologue was super sharp. Guillermo (who was very much in my head having just gone to his Art Gallery of Ontario exhibit the day prior) winning Best Director and his speech posted above were beautiful, even though I was still embarrassingly teary-eyed from Oprah's speech right before, so the emotions all blurred together. Seeing Tommy Wiseau on stage was ultra weird and hilarious (and if you think Franco stiff-arming him was out of line, you aren't considering just loose of a cannon Tommy can be with a mic). Everyone looked dope. The cutaways were as glorious and meme-able as ever!

I dunno, it was all around just one of the more purely satisfying nights of award show viewing I can recall in recent memory. Felt like a great party and an even better rally more than an awards show that leaves you feeling the need to bicker about "so-and-so was robbed" afterwards and whatnot.

[Morris Schæffer]

For as much as I loathe the Golden Globes, for all the bullshit they espouse, Guillermo being able to stand on that stage, to have that platform to discuss his sincere love of monsters, makes me unreasonably happy.

Right on!

[Spinal]

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I think Allison Janney is hammy and possibly one of the most overrated actresses alive.

[Dukefrukem]

What do you guys make of all these twitter responses against Franco?

[baby doll]

What do you guys make of all these twitter responses against Franco?Although I have no reason to doubt Sheedy's insinuations, she made it sound like everyone voting on the Golden Globes knew what Franco did to her and decided to give him the award anyway. And if the physical presence of a man accused (but not convicted) of sexual misconduct at a televised awards show is triggering for victims, why is no one disturbed by Mariah Carey wearing black when she herself has been accused of sexual harassment? Can't we just accept that at any large gathering of people, there's going to be someone in the room who did something terrible to someone else?

[number8]

He did push his luck a bit there. It's amazing enough that he got caught trying to sleep with an underaged girl, admitted his embarrassment on national television, and everyone just shrugged it off and moved on. This is only like 2 years ago! He probably could've skated by in this limbo of being skeevy but not that scrutinized because everyone already thinks he's a weirdo. But to then wear the solidarity pin and talk about responsibility... No shit there are gonna be clap backs. I don't think it's surprising when wronged parties feel that hypocrisy is a form of taunting.

[baby doll]

He did push his luck a bit there. It's amazing enough that he got caught trying to sleep with an underaged girl, admitted his embarrassment on national television, and everyone just shrugged it off and moved on. This is only like 2 years ago! He probably could've skated by in this limbo of being skeevy but not that scrutinized because everyone already thinks he's a weirdo. But to then wear the solidarity pin and talk about responsibility... No shit there are gonna be clap backs. I don't think it's surprising when wronged parties feel that hypocrisy is a form of taunting.Okay, I missed that part since I didn't watch the show.

[number8]

Okay, I missed that part since I didn't watch the show.

I actually missed that Ally Sheedy said something until I read your post. The one that popped on my timeline last night was this, which is what I assumed duke was referring to:

950252181965410304

[Ivan Drago]

And everyone's calling out Justin Timberlake for taking the lead role in Woody Allen's new movie, too. And I have friends boycotting every film by Neon Pictures because the head of it, Tim League, was the same guy that brought Devin Faraci back onto Birth. Movies. Death. among other things.

Might as well erase their work from history.

[Dukefrukem]

I actually missed that Ally Sheedy said something until I read your post. The one that popped on my timeline last night was this, which is what I assumed duke was referring to:

950252181965410304

This was the tweet that caught my eye too.

[baby doll]

The only people I follow on Twitter are actors who were in The Breakfast Club. No one else is worth my time.

[Pop Trash]

He did push his luck a bit there. It's amazing enough that he got caught trying to sleep with an underaged girl, admitted his embarrassment on national television, and everyone just shrugged it off and moved on. This is only like 2 years ago! He probably could've skated by in this limbo of being skeevy but not that scrutinized because everyone already thinks he's a weirdo. But to then wear the solidarity pin and talk about responsibility... No shit there are gonna be clap backs. I don't think it's surprising when wronged parties feel that hypocrisy is a form of taunting.

He was hitting on a 17-year-old girl which is the age of consent in NY. Also, one of the most acclaimed and nominated movies of the year features a sexual romance between a 17-year-old boy and a mid 20s man who just happens to look like he's pushing 30 (because he happens to look like 2016 Armie Hammer).

[Pop Trash]

I think it's fair to say Three Billboards and Lady Bird are the Oscar frontrunners right now, but we shall see.

[Spinal]

He was hitting on a 17-year-old girl which is the age of consent in NY. Also, one of the most acclaimed and nominated movies of the year features a sexual romance between a 17-year-old boy and a mid 20s man who just happens to look like he's pushing 30 (because he happens to look like 2016 Armie Hammer).

#peachcum

[Irish]

He was hitting on a 17-year-old girl which is the age of consent in NY. Also, one of the most acclaimed and nominated movies of the year features a sexual romance between a 17-year-old boy and a mid 20s man who just happens to look like he's pushing 30 (because he happens to look like 2016 Armie Hammer).

I don't think "technically, it wasn't illegal" should be a standard anyone should either aspire to or hide behind. Franco may not have broken the law but playing around with a 17 year old girl when you're a 35 year old man is super sleazy.

And hopefully, we can make a distinction between what's allowable in life and what's allowable in the movies.

[Ivan Drago]

#peachcum

My town is finally getting it on Friday.

I'll be anxious to hear audience reactions to that very scene.

[Ezee E]

My town is finally getting it on Friday.

I'll be anxious to hear audience reactions to that very scene.

lots of lols in Denver.

[Spinal]

I thought it was gross, but then I'm not a fan of either of the flavors in question.

[Ivan Drago]

lots of lols in Denver.

As long as no one's asleep in my theater by that scene, I'll be okay.

I say that because I saw Darkest Hour on Saturday and was taken out of it by someone snoring intermittently throughout the second act.

It was not pleasant.

[Ezee E]

As long as no one's asleep in my theater by that scene, I'll be okay.

I say that because I saw Darkest Hour on Saturday and was taken out of it by someone snoring intermittently throughout the second act.

It was not pleasant.

It was only in the Mayan and Alamo theater here. Those crowds tend to be into arthouse movies, so anything would've worked.

Darkest Hour might be hardpressed for anyone to stay awake to, IMO.

[Ivan Drago]

It was only in the Mayan and Alamo theater here. Those crowds tend to be into arthouse movies, so anything would've worked.

Darkest Hour might be hardpressed for anyone to stay awake to, IMO.

True story. The cinematography and score are great, and so is Gary Oldman as expected. But those elements can only carry the film for so long until the second act becomes the same three scenes over and over again.

[number8]

Too slow to take a screenshot but I saw a For Your Consideration banner ad for Logan for Best Picture. Huh, they're really going for it.

[TGM]

Too slow to take a screenshot but I saw a For Your Consideration banner ad for Logan for Best Picture. Huh, they're really going for it.

Good. It deserves it.

[Ezee E]

Too slow to take a screenshot but I saw a For Your Consideration banner ad for Logan for Best Picture. Huh, they're really going for it.

Money wasted, unless they want a Matchie.

[Ezee E]

Meanwhile, Post Golden Globe:

PICTURE:
#9 - Phantom Thread added. #10 Big Sick.

BEST DIRECTOR:
OUT: Spielberg
IN: McDonagh (I've had Gerwig since the beginning. On Gold Derby she was 50:1 odds at the time)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Out - Hong Chau
IN - Octavia Spencer
*This is such a weak category as far as who's actually getting pushed. Can it just be three at this point?

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
No change. Thinking of putting in Logan for Victoria and Abdul...

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Out - The Post
IN - Shape of Water

EDITING:
Out - The Post
IN - Three Billboards

CINEMATOGRAPHY:
OUT - Wonderstruck
IN - Phantom Thread

[Ivan Drago]

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Out - Hong Chau
IN - Octavia Spencer
*This is such a weak category as far as who's actually getting pushed. Can it just be three at this point?

Not really. There's enough outrage in Hollywood right now.

Hell, this article suggests we should lose the Best Director category: http://www.indiewire.com/2018/01/oscars-retire-best-director-academy-awards-1201916037/

[baby doll]

Hell, this article suggests we should lose the Best Director category: http://www.indiewire.com/2018/01/oscars-retire-best-director-academy-awards-1201916037/It's unfortunate that the English language doesn't have an equivalent term for "mise en scène" so that the Oscars, like Cannes, could give a prize for it instead of the more amorphous "best director," which suggests that the effort counts more than the finished result. And if by direction we mean the film most enhanced by its mise en scène, neither Gerwig nor del Toro really deserves to be in the running. (For my money, the best directed American film of 2017 is Antonio Méndez Esparza's Life and Nothing More, as its uninflected long take style helps to keep its story unpredictable on a moment-to-moment basis.)

[dreamdead]

It's been interesting to watch the Three Billboards pushback swell in volume in recent days, especially as I was expecting the momentum to coalesce around Ladybird instead.

Otherwise, I'm frustrated about the lack of Florida Project getting re-released into theaters, as I was hoping it would stick around longer and missed it. That's the main film under consideration that I'm missing right now.

[Henry Gale]

DGA!

FEATURE FILM

Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
(Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
(A24)

Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
(Fox Searchlight Pictures)

Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
(Warner Bros.)

Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
(Universal Pictures)


FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM DIRECTOR:

Geremy Jasper, “Patti Cake$”
(Fox Searchlight Pictures)

William Oldroyd, “Lady Macbeth”
(Roadside Attractions)

Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
(Universal Pictures)

Taylor Sheridan, “Wind River”
(Acacia Entertainment)

Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game”
(STX Entertainment)


EDIT: So basically by nomination-logic alone Peele is a lock to win First-Time since Gerwig somehow doesn't make it in there? Or is she not considered a first-time director for some reason I'm overlooking? (EDIT within an EDIT: Apparently she directed Nights and Weekends with Joe Swanberg in 2008, which I wasn't aware of, especially since I feel the whole Lady Bird creative narrative has been that it's her first time helming a film, but perhaps they just meant on her own.)

[Spinal]

DGA!

FEATURE FILM

Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
(Universal Pictures)



Well, that kind of takes the suspense out of the First-Time Feature category, doesn't it?

[Ezee E]

Well, that kind of takes the suspense out of the First-Time Feature category, doesn't it?

Ha. Just rile up Film Twitter and vote Taylor Sheridan.

[Watashi]

Really sad that The Florida Project has completely disappeared from the Awards race.

[Henry Gale]

Really sad that The Florida Project has completely disappeared from the Awards race.

Yeah.. I have a slightly skewed perception since here the Toronto Film Critics Association gala was the other night and they gave it Best Picture (where Bria Vinaite accepted) in addition to Best Supporting Actor for Willem Dafoe, and the press here has given it a lot of love since TIFF.

But it sadly does increasingly look like Dafoe could be its one Oscar nod, though I do feel like enough passionate #1 ballot votes can keep it in there for Picture. And I think it really is such a phenomenal movie so I hope it does, giving it all the publicity it can for more people to see it.


My Oscar Best Picture predictions (in order of likelihood) at the moment:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape Of Water
Dunkirk
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
The Florida Project
The Big Sick (if 9)
I, Tonya (if 10)

Despite its BAFTA love, I think at this point Darkest Hour is maybe only an Best Actor and Best Makeup candidate.

[Grouchy]

It's unfortunate that the English language doesn't have an equivalent term for "mise en scène" so that the Oscars, like Cannes, could give a prize for it instead of the more amorphous "best director," which suggests that the effort counts more than the finished result. And if by direction we mean the film most enhanced by its mise en scène, neither Gerwig nor del Toro really deserves to be in the running. (For my money, the best directed American film of 2017 is Antonio Méndez Esparza's Life and Nothing More, as its uninflected long take style helps to keep its story unpredictable on a moment-to-moment basis.)
Eh, "mise en scène" is a broader term than "direction", but for award categories, they're synonims. I don't understand what you're getting at.

[MadMan]

Most of, if not all of, the BP front runners are not showing in my area. No wonder Oscar ratings are low.

[baby doll]

Eh, "mise en scène" is a broader term than "direction", but for award categories, they're synonims. I don't understand what you're getting at.I suppose mise en scène is a broader term in the sense that it encompasses a lot of things awards-giving bodies credit to people further down the food chain, such as lighting (DPs), settings (production designers), costumes (costume designers), and acting (actors). What I mean by precise is that it's possible to look at a narrative film and analyze how the action is staged for the camera, whereas the actual contribution of a director is unknowable (as Ehrlich points out in the article). Therefore, one can say that Lady Bird is a good film despite its pedestrian mise en scène and is ideally viewed on an airplane monitor or smart phone screen rather than a movie theatre.

[Ezee E]

Assuming I get to see Phantom Thread and The Post before nominee day, this may be the first year that I'll have seen all the nominees before they're all announced.

[Pop Trash]

My Oscar Best Picture predictions (in order of likelihood) at the moment:

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape Of Water
Dunkirk
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
The Florida Project
The Big Sick (if 9)
I, Tonya (if 10)

Despite its BAFTA love, I think at this point Darkest Hour is maybe only an Best Actor and Best Makeup candidate.

I would swap out The Big Sick and maybe The Florida Project for Phantom Thread. I'd also put I, Tonya higher. It has a lot of buzz with 'normies' (i.e. people who don't write on movie message boards) and Tonya Harding is doing the talk show rounds I noticed.

[Henry Gale]

I would swap out The Big Sick and maybe The Florida Project for Phantom Thread. I'd also put I, Tonya higher. It has a lot of buzz with 'normies' (i.e. people who don't write on movie message boards) and Tonya Harding is doing the talk show rounds I noticed.

Even having not seen it yet, I absolutely wish for this to be a possibility, but I really can't see it happening.

With his reputation, it's kind of shocking that Anderson's only film to ever get nominated for Best Picture was There Will Be Blood a full decade ago. That was also his most financially successful work, and I remember seeing it at my local multiplex before Oscar nominations were out, whereas Phantom Thread has made $1 million to date in considerably less theatres.

[Grouchy]

I suppose mise en scène is a broader term in the sense that it encompasses a lot of things awards-giving bodies credit to people further down the food chain, such as lighting (DPs), settings (production designers), costumes (costume designers), and acting (actors). What I mean by precise is that it's possible to look at a narrative film and analyze how the action is staged for the camera, whereas the actual contribution of a director is unknowable (as Ehrlich points out in the article). Therefore, one can say that Lady Bird is a good film despite its pedestrian mise en scène and is ideally viewed on an airplane monitor or smart phone screen rather than a movie theatre.
Oh that's a good point, actually, but I still don't think the jury at Cannes actually makes that distinction - when they award the mise en scène, they are simply giving an award to a director.

[number8]

I honestly never know by what metric the DGA judges "good direction." I always feel like great performances should count as points to the director, but I don't know if it does when it comes to awards.

[Ezee E]

I honestly never know by what metric the DGA judges "good direction." I always feel like great performances should count as points to the director, but I don't know if it does when it comes to awards.

I mean, what metric judges any award by that matter?

[number8]

I mean, what metric judges any award by that matter?

Metric was the wrong word, but you can specify what is being judged with most categories, especially technical ones. "Directing," however has always been ill-defined in terms of results. How do you look at what's in a film and tangibly isolate the products of the director's instructions and leadership, versus the accomplishments of the responsible departments?

[Grouchy]

Yeah, exactly. You'd have to measure the level of micro-management of each separate director to make it a fair comparison.

A Robert Altman film could not run against a Stanley Kubrick one, for example.

[Ezee E]

Metric was the wrong word, but you can specify what is being judged with most categories, especially technical ones. "Directing," however has always been ill-defined in terms of results. How do you look at what's in a film and tangibly isolate the products of the director's instructions and leadership, versus the accomplishments of the responsible departments?

Mike Nichols stands out to me in this. Take a movie like Closer/Angels in America, which is so filled with dialog but always interesting to watch on screen at the same time for the use of blocking, mood, set, etc.

I think Molly's Game, while with a pretty good script, could've improved if it had a stronger director instead of being a debut from Sorkin.

[Spinal]

When I consider 'Best Director', I am looking at the overall artistic vision. Is there a unified concept in all production elements that supports the film's purpose? Is this the best version of this particular idea/script? Has the director supported/encouraged artistic risks/innovation? Has the director created a work that leaves evidence of their unique artistry/personality?

[Ezee E]

Final Picks -
Supporting Actress -- Humblebrag that I had Alison Janney when she was 40-1 odds. She's now 9-4.

Adapted Screenplay --
OUT : Victoria and Abdul
IN : All the Money in the World

Original Screenplay --
OUT : The Big Sick
IN : I, Tonya

Cinematography --
OUT: The Beguiled
IN : Mudbound

Costumes --
OUT: Dunkirk/Darkest Hour
IN : Shape of Water / Murder on the Orient Express

Production Design --
OUT : Darkest Hour
IN : Beauty and the Beast

Sound Editing --
OUT: War for the Planet of the Apes
IN: Baby Driver

Sound Mixing --
OUT: Beauty and the Beast
IN: Baby Driver

[dreamdead]

Oscar Nominations:

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul

SOUND EDITING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

SOUND MIXING
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes

LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us

ORIGINAL SCORE
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

VISUAL EFFECTS
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

FILM EDITING
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
A Fantastic Woman, Chile
The Insult, Lebanon
Loveless, Russia
On Body and Soul, Hungary
The Square, Sweden

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Edith and Eddie
Heaven Is A Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Man in Aleppo
Strong Island

ORIGINAL SONG
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Mystery of Love,” Call Me By Your Name
“Remember Me,” Coco
“Stand Up For Something,” Marshall
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan, Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh

BEST ACTOR
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

BEST ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

BEST DIRECTOR
Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

BEST PICTURE
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

[Irish]

This is gonna be a painful run up to the ceremony.

How many noms did "Shape of Water" get? It was too many.

I don't know why I always remember the screenplay category fondly, because the WGA fucks me over every year. This year might be the worst of the last 5 or 10.

I'll take more of Tiffany Haddish and Andy Serkis in anything, though. Theirs was easily the best announcement broadcast of the previous few years. It was actually fun.

[Dukefrukem]

Get Out getting nominated for Best Picture is incredible.

The Post getting nominated for Best Picture is laughable. (I haven't see it)

[Peng]

That is just an amazing line-up of director nominees that I can't get too upset Luca Guadagnino doesn't make it (although over here a lot are so disappointed that we miss the chance to have the first Thai Oscar nominee ever with CMBYN's cinematography lol).

Good, interesting nods in Screenplay.

I feel like the rise of Phantom Thread, despite late screeners and its lack of momentum or awards buzz from other shows, is really fascinating. Passionate picks and/or more newer cinephile types now that they let more varied groups of people in? Also maybe because this year lacks a very clear frontrunner in a lot of categories too (might be why McDonagh couldn't come along the coattail of Three Billboards' buzz).

[number8]

lol Christopher Plummer

[Dead & Messed Up]

I thought, wow, Spielberg being shut out by these young directors, and then I realized PTA and Nolan are nearly 50 and GDT is 53, and now it's just, oh my God, it's 2018, and where on Earth did the time go?

[Henry Gale]

Biggest surprises for me:

- I just saw Phantom Thread yesterday, and thought, "I loved this but can't imagine it getting nominated for much tomorrow." -- so I definitely didn't expect Anderson for Director or BEST PICTURE. Day-Lewis and especially Manville were nice to see too, though I think Krieps is the standout and most deserving.

- Dafoe being The Florida Project's one and only nomination is extremely disappointing, as he is just one of many fantastic things about it. I wonder if because of the preferential ballot system, it could've hypothetically been tons of people's #2 or #3 and fallen away as a result.

- Maybe the best Best Director category in recent memory? McDonagh being left out makes Anderson getting in there, Peele and Gerwig being properly acknowledged not just great for the statistics against them, but for the fact that they are entirely the creative impetuses for the invaluable and singular films they made that reflect their voices, and first-ever nominations for Nolan and del Toro (whose award it now obviously is) as directors shows how clearly it is directors who nominate here, and the category don't always need to go simply by The Top 5 of Best Picture sort of compass. And speaking of Gerwig and Peele as writer-directors, aside from Guillermo having Vanessa Taylor as a co-writer, I don't think this category is always so auteurist.

- No Hammer or Stuhlbarg (mainly for his one scene, but still.. *cries*) are glaring omissions in Supporting Actor. Harrelson and No-Longer-Spacey seem to be in their just because they can be.

- Logan for Adapted Screenplay! The rare (only?) time one of them comic book flicks gets recognition in an Academy space like this.

- For Franco, the Golden Globes related tweets and the LA Times article were January 7th and the 11th, respectively, and the Oscar nomination window was January 5th to 13th, so it was smack-dab in the middle of it, but it's also possible that generally less enthusiasm for him were the bigger factor in him being left out. And/or everyone saw Phantom Thread late and understandably liked Day-Lewis much more (as he's the one difference in this category between Oscar and SAG).

- The Animation branch of the Academy is officially anti-Lego, but does love themselves some Boss Babyyyyy, baby!

- Maybe trivial to think of it this way, but if imagine if Best Picture was based on total amount of nominations (since The Post got in only with Streep otherwise), the Top 11 would be:

(13) The Shape of Water
(8) Dunkirk
(7) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
(6) Darkest Hour
(6) Phantom Thread
(5) Blade Runner 2049
(5) Lady Bird
(4) Call Me by Your Name
(4) Get Out
(4) Mudbound
(4) Star Wars: The Last Jedi


And yeah Serkis and Haddish were delightfully goofy together. I even liked the little filmed bits they did with the actresses for the technical categories. (26:47 if it doesn't go there automatically)


https://youtu.be/jdSUea1CEPc?t=1607

[megladon8]

All the Get Out noms are cool as hell to see.

Super bummed Jackman didn’t get a nom for Logan, but neat it got (and won’t win) Adapted Screenplay.

[number8]

- Logan for Adapted Screenplay! The rare (only?) time one of them comic book flicks gets recognition in an Academy space like this.

It's far from the first nominee adapted from a comic book, but certainly it's the first superhero comic. That's pretty cool.

[Irish]

I thought, wow, Spielberg being shut out by these young directors,

I take a schadenfreudish delight in the many, many ways the Academy Awards has trolled Spielberg over the years. (There's a very obvious dislike operating there, and I don't quite know why.) This year was a good effort on their part, but not as good as I've seen.

[Grouchy]

I don't know why I always remember the screenplay category fondly, because the WGA fucks me over every year. This year might be the worst of the last 5 or 10.
The same thing happens to me. I used to say that that was where the best films were. Now I'm not so sure.

And yeah, I didn't dislike The Shape of Water but what a safe choice to win Best Picture.

[megladon8]

A movie about a woman in love with The Creature From the Black Lagoon is a “safe choice”?

[Mal]

Darkest Hour zzzzzzzzzz

but these are pretty good noms, despite a couple questionable things here and there.

[Grouchy]

See, that sounds like something Alan Moore would write about on paper, but while I liked the actual sexual angle of their relationship, overall it's a mushy mushy creature film where the bad guys are very bad and the good guys are very good. Get Out or Three Billboards are far more troubling to the Academy's conservative worldview.

[number8]

I feel like every year I'm surprised that there are still Oscar firsts I didn't realize hadn't happened yet.

Rachel Morrison is the first woman to even be nominated for Best Cinematography? Really?

[Grouchy]

Well, how many have you heard about? When I learned that the DP for Neon Demon was a woman I was surprised. It was a male-centric area until fairly recently.

[TGM]

I'm glad Logan got at least Best Adapted Screenplay, but still, it could've (and should've) done much better. And Beauty and the Beast for Production Design? Did they even see that movie? It was ugly as shit, and looked like it was shot on the cheapest set that Disney could scramble together at the last second. :\

This is seriously one of the most boring awards seasons in some time, for me at least. I can see how Get Out or The Shape of Water can be looked at as cool picks, and I'd agree, if I had perhaps come out caring about either movie all that much. But really, my reaction coming out of most of these movies were that they were just "fine". Of all the Best Picture nominees, none of them even crack my Top 20 of the year. And so long as it's not Call Me By Your Name (the only legit bad movie nominated), I honestly don't even give a shit what wins, as I seriously have no dog in this race this year. *shrug*

[number8]

Well, how many have you heard about? When I learned that the DP for Neon Demon was a woman I was surprised. It was a male-centric area until fairly recently.

Not a lot. Ellen Kurras and Reed Morano are the only ones on my radar currently. But there are tons of Oscar nominated DPs I'm not familiar with, so I just (wrongly) assumed that in 90 years there would've been at least one already.

[Grouchy]

In real life, though, I know at least five women who are dedicated DPs. One slovenian, three Argentinians, one Brazilian.

Wow, TGM, you are the first person I've heard of who was indifferent to Get Out.

[number8]

In real life, though, I know at least five women who are dedicated DPs. One slovenian, three Argentinians, one Brazilian.

Oh, well, yeah, I know several female DPs who make a living of it shooting web series and music videos and stuff, so that possibly what colored my assumption, too.

[TGM]

In real life, though, I know at least five women who are dedicated DPs. One slovenian, three Argentinians, one Brazilian.

Wow, TGM, you are the first person I've heard of who was indifferent to Get Out.

To be fair, it's still probably my favorite movie of those nominated. To rank this year's Best Picture nominees...

Get Out
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
Three Billboards
The Post
The Shape of Water
Dunkirk
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name

[Grouchy]

Those are gonna be the ones nominated in years to come, then.

[amberlita]

Really surprised (happily) about the Daniel Kaluuya nod. His performance seemed overshadowed by the accomplishments of Jordan Peele and the overall film itself. Great decision, that.

[Irish]

Wow, TGM, you are the first person I've heard of who was indifferent to Get Out.

Eh, not TGM, but for my money there's at least 3-4 movies nominated for Best Picture that don't deserve it (and wouldn't have gotten the nom if the category were still limited and thus more competitive).

This was a weak year for mainstream American movies. The blockbusters generally sucked and the Oscar bait is notable mostly because it's rather inoffensive and unassuming.

[Watashi]

Nolan, Gerwig, Peele, PTA, and Del Toro.

Strongest Best Director lineup in my lifetime.

I love the nominations. The eventual winners.... not so much (though I'll be happy for Del Toro).

[Watashi]

The only real snub that irks me is Michael Stuhlberg for any of his three BP films, but particularly Call Me By Your Name.

Get this guy a freakin' Oscar, please.

[Dead & Messed Up]

The only real snub that irks me is Michael Stuhlberg for any of his three BP films, but particularly Call Me By Your Name.

Get this guy a freakin' Oscar, please.

I'm still waiting for that retroactive Oscar for A Serious Man.

[number8]

Whether or not it'll win is a different story, but I really can't imagine a scenario where Get Out would've been shut out of Best Picture, no matter how small the window. The fact that it came out so early in the year and people were still talking about its accomplishments by the end of the year was a pretty good indication that it was the it movie of the year, and I just think that's too big of cultural mark for the Academy to ignore. I can't name another movie in 2017 that made a bigger impact in pop culture than that movie.

[Watashi]

Whether or not it'll win is a different story, but I really can't imagine a scenario where Get Out would've been shut out of Best Picture, no matter how small the window. The fact that it came out so early in the year and people were still talking about its accomplishments by the end of the year was a pretty good indication that it was the it movie of the year, and I just think that's too big of cultural mark for the Academy to ignore. I can't name another movie in 2017 that made a bigger impact in pop culture than that movie.

I would put IT into the same echelon of pop culture domination. Both horror movies too.

I would loved to see some technical noms thrown IT's way.

[Ivan Drago]

Captain Underpants was robbed.

[Dead & Messed Up]

I take a schadenfreudish delight in the many, many ways the Academy Awards has trolled Spielberg over the years. (There's a very obvious dislike operating there, and I don't quite know why.) This year was a good effort on their part, but not as good as I've seen.

I wonder if part of it is his overall sense of entitlement. He was famously spiteful when The Color Purple didn't land him a Director nod and then didn't win a single award. And I still remember when he got his gold boy for Saving Private Ryan and opened by saying, "I really wanted this." In the parlance of our times, guy, don't be so thirsty.

[Spinal]

I'm assuming The Boss Baby was nominated because it somehow remotely felt like a Trump diss?

The Florida Project is now officially the most bizarrely underappreciated film of this awards season.

[Wryan]

Damn Peele better win something for Get Out. Happily surprised by Logan's inclusion.

Haven't seen the movie....is Plummer's inclusion mostly a middle finger to Spacey or is he actually that great in it?

[Dead & Messed Up]

The Florida Project is now officially the most bizarrely underappreciated film of this awards season.

Concur.

Also, wish Logan was nominated for cinematography instead of screenplay (I thought its screenplay was sorta blah and bolstered by the performances), but a nom is a nom, and it's a good flick.

[number8]

The Florida Project is now officially the most bizarrely underappreciated film of this awards season.

There's an interesting discussion I heard that posited that the bizarre exclusion of Bria Vinaite out of every awards consideration (even the Spirit Awards!) is because she's a first-time actor and it's largely assumed that she was playing herself and not doing much acting, versus Dafoe who's "playing against type." Feels wrong to me.

[TGM]

Damn Peele better win something for Get Out. Happily surprised by Logan's inclusion.

Haven't seen the movie....is Plummer's inclusion mostly a middle finger to Spacey or is he actually that great in it?

His performance is legitimately really good. I can definitely think of others who I would've preferred to see get nominated instead (Patrick Stewart), but I'm not opposed to the nomination either.

It's really the Best Actor category where I take a lot of issues with. Really only agree with Kaluuya and Oldman in that one...

[amberlita]

His performance is legitimately really good. I can definitely think of others who I would've preferred to see get nominated instead (Patrick Stewart), but I'm not opposed to the nomination either.

It's really the Best Actor category where I take a lot of issues with. Really only agree with Kaluuya and Oldman in that one...

Really? You don’t think Timothy Chalamet deserves his? I thought he was outstanding.

[TGM]

Really? You don’t think Timothy Chalamet deserves his? I thought he was outstanding.

Absolutely not. I don't understand the praise for his performance (or really that whole movie) one bit.

[Spinal]

Damn Peele better win something for Get Out.

He won't.

[Milky Joe]

If PTA doesn't win Director for Phantom Thread, that will be a disgrace.

Gerwig & Peele's movies are their first outing as director. Who wins best director for their first film? Phantom Thread is a masterpiece from a fully matured Paul Thomas Anderson who has never won Best Director.

It's Time. But maybe they want to give him the Kubrick mystique of having never won despite being clearly The Best. I dunno, Oscar is weird like that.

[Spinal]

It's del Toro or Nolan. Can't see anyone else winning.

[Ezee E]

Has there been a female composer??

[Pop Trash]

If PTA doesn't win Director for Phantom Thread, that will be a disgrace.


I wouldn't vote for him.

[number8]

Picks not nominated that I would've given the award to:

Actor in a Leading Role
Robert Pattinson - Good Time

Actor in a Supporting Role
Colin Farrell - The Beguiled

Actress in a Leading Role
Haley Lu Richardson - Columbus

Actress in a Supporting Role
Bria Vinaite - The Florida Project

Cinematography
Jonathan Sela - Atomic Blonde

Directing
Olivier Assayas - Personal Shopper

Editing
Kogonada - Columbus

Animated Feature Film
Your Name

Best Picture
The Florida Project

[Milky Joe]

I wouldn't vote for him.

Disgraceful.

I don't want to live in a world where Christopher Nolan has won Best Director but PT Anderson hasn't.

[Spinal]

For those 5 films ... I'd go:

1. del Toro
2. Anderson
3. Peele
4. Gerwig
5. Nolan

[Grouchy]

I really don't think Nolan deserves any sort of directing award at this point, but when you consider that Kubrick died without having won, it's at least coherent.

[DavidSeven]

As a pure filmmaking exercise, Dunkirk was exemplary. There were other films I personally enjoyed more, but I can't deny the quality of Nolan's film on the merits. A deserved nomination, imo.

The Academy did a nice job in the Directing category, on the whole. I'd give it to Peele.

[number8]

Directors who were nominated multiple times but never won: Hitchcock, Fellini, Lumet, and most surprisingly to me, Robert Altman.

[Milky Joe]

Has there ever been a director who won for their first film? I'm blanking on my Oscar history.

[Spinal]

Has there ever been a director who won for their first film? I'm blanking on my Oscar history.

Heh. Kevin Costner?

[number8]

Has there ever been a director who won for their first film? I'm blanking on my Oscar history.

Yeah. James L. Brooks, Robert Redford, and Kevin Costner.

[Mysterious Dude]

Don't forget everyone's favorite, Delbert Mann.

[Milky Joe]

Interesting, thanks.

[Ivan Drago]

Some are saying Gerwig might win Director because the current political climate might sway votes her way.

[Grouchy]

I just assumed Fellini had won because his films were a fixture in the Foreign Film category.

[Grouchy]

As a pure filmmaking exercise, Dunkirk was exemplary. There were other films I personally enjoyed more, but I can't deny the quality of Nolan's film on the merits. A deserved nomination, imo.
I don't know... The film looks gorgeous in cinematography and framing, it's tightly edited, and it has many technical marvels, but I think outstanding direction is about something else and (I know this is completely subjective, but...) my empathy with the story being told and the characters was close to zero.

[Irish]

Yeah. James L. Brooks, Robert Redford, and Kevin Costner.

Two of them didn't deserve it and have become case studies in why you don't give Oscars to noobs: Because they might go on to star in "Legal Eagles" or direct "Waterworld" and that'll be kinda fucking embarrassing for the Academy.

[Dukefrukem]

Mel Gibson?

[Dukefrukem]

Two of them didn't deserve it and have become case studies in why you don't give Oscars to noobs: Because they might go on to star in "Legal Eagles" or direct "Waterworld" and that'll be kinda fucking embarrassing for the Academy.

Costner didn't direct Waterworld.

[Irish]

Mel Gibson?

Gibson's first film as a director was "Man Without a Face," not "Braveheart."

[Irish]

Costner didn't direct Waterworld.

!!! --- swap in "The Postman," then, or "Open Range."

(I mean, "Dances with Wolves" is fine, it looks nice, there's a good cast, but it's also overlong and somehow manages to contain a heavy handed political message while being subtly racist, too. It sure as hell wasn't the best picture, and Costner wasn't the best director, the year it won.)

[Grouchy]

Dances with Wolves would have been fine in any year without Goodfellas.

[Irish]

Dances with Wolves would have been fine in any year without Goodfellas.

Eh, hard disagree. It won in a relatively weak year ("Ghost," "Awakenings," and "Godfather III" were the other nominees along with "Goodfellas"). It was the safe pick that got caught up in a wave of good feeling and political correctness, not to mention box office success. I don't think it deserved to win and I don't think it could have won in another year.

Which is sorta similar to *cough* certain other, more current nominees.

[Ezee E]

Paul Thomas Anderson is at Martin Scorsese Goodfellas age.
Guillermo Del Toro is at Steven Spielberg's Saving Private Ryan age.
Jordan Peele is at Alfred Hitchcock's Lady Vanishes age.
Christopher Nolan is at Stanley Kubrick's Barry Lyndon age.
Greta Gerwig is as old as I am.

[Grouchy]

Eh, hard disagree. It won in a relatively weak year ("Ghost," "Awakenings," and "Godfather III" were the other nominees along with "Goodfellas"). It was the safe pick that got caught up in a wave of good feeling and political correctness, not to mention box office success. I don't think it deserved to win and I don't think it could have won in another year.

Which is sorta similar to *cough* certain other, more current nominees.
OK, but consider how those movies look almost thirty years later. Ghost is a product of its time, Awakenings is a Hollywood bastardization of a great thinker and writer, Godfather III is the weaker link in a mythical trilogy and Dances with Wolves is an entertaining epic that I wouldn't watch again.

Goodfellas is a masterpiece that never gets old and still surprises and shocks film students to this day. I would watch it again right now. There's no question that should have been the award. The same award that should have gone to Taxi Driver and Raging Bull. The Academy just fails to recognize something groundbreaking 90% of the time.

[Spinal]

Gerwig wouldn't have been in my top 5 directors of the year, but considering she's quite possibly the most likable person I can think of in the entertainment industry, more power to her. She made a damn fine film regardless.

[Grouchy]

Which is sorta similar to *cough* certain other, more current nominees.
Which ones? Three Billboards? I've only seen that, Get Out, Dunkirk and Shape. Except for Dunkirk they all seem like films Trump would dislike.

[Grouchy]

Ok, Taxi Driver went against One Flew Over a Cukoo's Nest. I still would have picked the Scorsese but that's a tough match.

[number8]

I always think about this Tarantino quote from when he was asked years after the movie stopped being talked about regarding his decision to give Fahrenheit 9/11 a Palme d'Or when he was the head jury at Cannes.


You know what? As time has gone on, I’ve put that decision under a microscope and I still think we were right. That was a movie of the moment — “Fahrenheit 9/11” may not play the same way now as it did then, but back then it deserved everything it got.

I really like the idea of rewarding a movie with a Best Movie of the Year award that emphasizes the "of the year" part more than the "best" part. It contextualizes a film as a vehicle to talk to audiences that are watching it, rather than a thing in of itself that can be objectively viewed and assessed on its own merit throughout space and time.

[Irish]

OK, but consider how those movies look almost thirty years later.

That was my point. Outside of "Goodfellas," every other nominee from that year was middlebrow claptrap. Nobody talks about them now, at least not in any way that's favorable.

Also, "Raging Bull" and Martin Scorsese lost out to "Ordinary People" and first-timer Robert Redford. So, same story 10 years apart.


Which ones? Three Billboards? I've only seen that, Get Out, Dunkirk and Shape. Except for Dunkirk they all seem like films Trump would dislike.

I was trying to snark on "Get Out," Grouch, and you didn't help at all! ;)

[Grouchy]

I really like the idea of rewarding a movie with a Best Movie of the Year award that emphasizes the "of the year" part more than the "best" part. It contextualizes a film as a vehicle to talk to audiences that are watching it, rather than a thing in of itself that can be objectively viewed and assessed on its own merit throughout space and time.
True, and besides, it's impossible to compare two wildly different films with different goals. We cinephiles do it all the time, but there's no objective way in which Persona is better than Mad Max: Fury Road or viceversa.

[Ivan Drago]

Alright, my thoughts on the Oscar noms now that I have some free time.

Surprises:

- All the love for Phantom Thread, especially PTA for director, Greenwood for Score, and Lesley Manville for Supporting Actress. In a perfect world, PTA would win Best Director, but it's between Gerwig and Del Toro at this point.

- LOGAN FOR BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY. FUCK YES.

- Steve James's new documentary got a nod! As a fan of Hoop Dreams and an alum from the same film school he went to, I'm rooting for him.

- The Big Sick thankfully got a nod for Original Screenplay, and deservedly so, because it's one of the most realistic and honest romantic comedies in recent memory.

- Mudbound getting a decent handful of nominations means the Academy is turning the tide on how they view Netflix movies, which is a good thing for both them and the company.

Snubs:

- Allegations be damned, James Franco for Best Actor. He genuinely was one of my favorite performances of the year.

- Would it have hurt the voters to go with Armie Hammer for Supporting Actor instead of one of the TWO noms for Three Billboards (preferably Harrelson)?

- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 for Makeup

- The Florida Project only getting one nomination thanks to the game of release date chess.

- As stated earlier, Captain Underpants was robbed.

Also, In The Fade got snubbed for Best Foreign Film despite winning the Golden Globe? That's a rarity.

[Irish]

Has Andy Serkis been nominated for his performances?

[baby doll]

If PTA doesn't win Director for Phantom Thread, that will be a disgrace.

Gerwig & Peele's movies are their first outing as director. Who wins best director for their first film? Phantom Thread is a masterpiece from a fully matured Paul Thomas Anderson who has never won Best Director.

It's Time. But maybe they want to give him the Kubrick mystique of having never won despite being clearly The Best. I dunno, Oscar is weird like that.I would probably vote for Anderson for best director myself, though it's not much of a competition this year. (I haven't seen Dunkirk, so for all I know, it might be a huge leap forward for Nolan.) That said, I don't think some one should be ruled out simply because they've only made one film. After all, Citizen Kane, The Night of the Hunter, Shadows, À bout de souffle, Lola, and Badlands (to name only the first six films that come to mind) were first films as well. It's not a lifetime achievement award, like the Nobel prize. Incidentally, on that front, I wouldn't call Anderson's film a masterpiece, much less one by a fully mature filmmaker, since--as I noted in the Phantom Thread thread--Anderson still can't function independently of his models, even if his technical craft is flawless.

[baby doll]

Two of them didn't deserve it and have become case studies in why you don't give Oscars to noobs: Because they might go on to star in "Legal Eagles" or direct "Waterworld" and that'll be kinda fucking embarrassing for the Academy.By that logic, they shouldn't have given Scorsese best director for GoodFellas because he might've gone on to make a film as dreadful as The Departed. I've not seen Dances With Wolves, but I can't see how Costner's subsequent mega-flops have any bearing on that film's merits.

[baby doll]

Picks not nominated that I would've given the award to:

Actor in a Leading Role
Shahab Hosseini, The Salesman

Actor in a Supporting Role
John Lloyd Cruz, The Woman Who Left

Actress in a Leading Role
Charo Santos-Concio, The Woman Who Left

Actress in a Supporting Role
Kiki Kirin, After the Storm

Cinematography
Jonathan Ricquebourg, La Mort de Louis XIV

Directing
Edward Yang, Taipei Story

Editing
Sebastián Schjaer, Hermia & Helena

Documentary Feature Film
Dawson City: Frozen Time

Best Picture
Taipei Story

Of course, the Academy was created in the late 1920s as a combined union for actors and craftspeople; thus, the whole point of the awards is to give its members more leverage to negotiate higher salaries in the future. This may or may not be relevant to why Sayombhu Mukdeeprom didn't get a nomination for best cinematography.

[Irish]

By that logic, they shouldn't have given Scorsese best director for GoodFellas because he might've gone on to make a film as dreadful as The Departed. I've not seen Dances With Wolves, but I can't see how Costner's subsequent mega-flops have any bearing on that film's merits.

The difference is in giving someone with limited experience and an unproven track record major promotion. I disagree with 8 and Grouchy that the Academy Awards should capture the zeitgeist because the zeitgeist is fickle. Follow the fashion, the fashion becomes dated, and then we get the Oscar equivalent of parachute pants and chain wallets. The Awards will look no different than the whatever the hell the Globes and MTV celebrate in any particular year.

When Oscar nominees and winners go on to mediocre shit like "Snow Dogs, "Catwoman," and "Mom and Dad," or direct movies like "The Postman," that reflects badly on the credibility of The Academy.

Obviously, they can't control or predict where somebody will arrive in their life or career. But I think a little prudence goes a long way. (I don't think it was an accident, either, that 3 first-timers won Director within a decade and then---suddenly!---that stopped happening.)

TL;DR: Nobody likes one-hit wonders.

ETA: And did you really just defend Kevin Costner and a Kevin Costner movie you haven't seen.

[Grouchy]

I don't think 8 meant that the Academy Awards should "follow the zeitgeist" - which is always a path to wrongness. His example was Fahrenheit 9/11 winning the Palm at Cannes in the agitated political climate of those years. Now, Tarantino is the ultimate film buff and scholar. He must have realized that Moore's documentary had a limited aesthetic. In no way it was better cinema than Bad Education, 2046, The Edukators or goddamn Oldboy. He leaned towards it because he must have thought that, in that particular moment in time, it was the movie which was addressing the more urgent issues.

Awards are meaningless anyways. There are countless examples of the huge gap between what film criticism likes and what movie buffs end up liking or what History ends up calling a landmark. And there's also what I pointed out earlier - you can't seriously compare the merits of a political documentary like Fahrenheit with the ones of an Almodóvar drama. You shouldn't even be comparing the merits of an experimental film like 2046 with the completely plot-driven Oldboy. And Almodóvar exists on his own personal world. None makes films like his, his handling of drama with the absurd is 100% personal. So if you're faced with an impossible choice, why not go with the best film based on its themes?

That's not to say I don't like Top 10 lists - I live for that shit, man. But I know that they're ultimately completely arbitrary.

[baby doll]

The difference is in giving someone with limited experience and an unproven track record major promotion. I disagree with 8 and Grouchy that the Academy Awards should capture the zeitgeist because the zeitgeist is fickle. Follow the fashion, the fashion gets dated, and then you get the Oscar equivalent of parachute pants and chain wallets. The Awards will look no different than the whatever the hell the Globes and MTV celebrate in any particular year.

When Oscar nominees and winners go on to mediocre shit like "Snow Dogs, "Catwoman," and "Mom and Dad," or direct movies like "The Postman," that reflects badly on the taste and credibility of The Academy.

Obviously, they can't control or predict where somebody will arrive in their life or career. But I think a little prudence goes a long way.

TL;DR: Nobody likes one-hit wonders.

ETA: And did you really just defend Kevin Costner and a Kevin Costner movie you haven't seen.Not precisely, though I think Costner is a charismatic actor. (I can't speak to his directing abilities.) My point was that Dances With Wolves should be judged as a film in itself, irrespective of Costner's overall career trajectory. Similarly, I don't think it reflects badly on the Academy's taste and credibility that Marlon Brando's last screen performance was in a lousy Michael Jackson video.

[Grouchy]

Has Andy Serkis been nominated for his performances?
We actually discussed this with a friend after watching the latest Planet of the Apes. At that level, motion capture performances are a tricky thing to judge based solely on the merits of the performer. It's very different than performing in make-up or in a fat suit. What you see on the screen is a tight collaboration between Serkis and, I dunno, 100 Koreans?

[number8]

Actor in a Leading Role
Shahab Hosseini, The Salesman

This was a 2016 movie. You may remember that it was already a nominee at last year's Oscars.

Not sure if your Taipei Story pick was a joke or not... Although it would be funny to see someone win Best Director ten years after his death.

[baby doll]

This was a 2016 movie. You may remember that it was already a nominee at last year's Oscars.

Not sure if your Taipei Story pick was a joke or not...I'm going by US release dates. The Salesman was nominated for best foreign language film for 2016 as the eligibility rules for that award are different; similarly, City of God was submitted for best foreign language film in 2002 and nominated for best director in 2003.

[number8]

I'm going by US release dates. The Salesman was nominated for best foreign language film for 2016 as the eligibility rules for that award are different; similarly, City of God was submitted for best foreign language film in 2002 and nominated for best director in 2003.

Hm, that's true. What an absurd category. I wonder if that could've happened if The Salesman was released in the US after the Oscars and used Farhadi's boycott in its press.

[Milky Joe]

I would probably vote for Anderson for best director myself, though it's not much of a competition this year. (I haven't seen Dunkirk, so for all I know, it might be a huge leap forward for Nolan.) That said, I don't think some one should be ruled out simply because they've only made one film. After all, Citizen Kane, The Night of the Hunter, Shadows, À bout de souffle, Lola, and Badlands (to name only the first six films that come to mind) were first films as well. It's not a lifetime achievement award, like the Nobel prize. Incidentally, on that front, I wouldn't call Anderson's film a masterpiece, much less one by a fully mature filmmaker, since--as I noted in the Phantom Thread thread--Anderson still can't function independently of his models, even if his technical craft is flawless.

Fair enough, but Ladybird, lovely as it was, was no Citizen Kane (I haven't seen Get Out). I don't agree with you about Anderson though. Your critique seems so high-brow as to be meaningful only to the most diehard of cineastes. Given the breadth of your familiarity with film history from all around the world, I question what Anderson would have to do to show to you he'd moved sufficiently beyond his influences—what were the models you saw behind The Master, anyway, that prevented it from being original or authentic enough? The obvious line about great artists stealing would apply here as well—the present is a constant re-enacting of the past. Hitchcock had his influences too after all, not all of them cinematic.

[baby doll]

Fair enough, but Ladybird, lovely as it was, was no Citizen Kane (I haven't seen Get Out). I don't agree with you about Anderson though. Your critique seems so high-brow as to be meaningful only to the most diehard of cineastes. Given the breadth of your familiarity with film history from all around the world, I question what Anderson would have to do to show to you he'd moved sufficiently beyond his influences—what were the models you saw behind The Master, anyway, that prevented it from being original or authentic enough? The obvious line about great artists stealing would apply here as well—the present is a constant re-enacting of the past. Hitchcock had his influences too after all, not all of them cinematic.Pynchon, Pynchon, and Pynchon. I'm not saying each filmmaker needs to reinvent the wheel each time out; however, with Anderson, and Phantom Thread in particular, he seems to rely on cinematic and literary allusions as a substitute for character development. For instance, he names Vicky Kriep's character Alma and makes her Swedish so as to remind us of Persona but never gets around to explaining how a Swedish woman winds up working as a waitress in an English resort town in the 1950s. I don't see what's so high brow about calling a film out on lazy screenwriting.

[Ezee E]

Ha. Someone I got 5-5 for Song.

The worst categories were the ones I don't care about. The shorts and Documentary. 75% overall.

[Watashi]

Woah, woah, woah. Waterworld is a great underrated film. Open Range is awesome.

I want Costner to direct another film.

[Peng]

Picks not nominated that I would've given the award to:

This is a fun game:

Actor in a Leading Role
Michael Fassbender, Alien: Covenant

Actor in a Supporting Role
Barry Keoghan, The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Actress in a Leading Role
Carla Gugino, Gerald's Game

Actress in a Supporting Role
Kirin Kiki, After the Storm

Cinematography
John Wick 2

Directing
Bertrand Bonello, Nocturama

Editing
Good Time

Animated Feature Film
In This Corner of the World

Best Picture
A Ghost Story

[number8]

I disagree with 8 and Grouchy that the Academy Awards should capture the zeitgeist because the zeitgeist is fickle. Follow the fashion, the fashion becomes dated, and then we get the Oscar equivalent of parachute pants and chain wallets. The Awards will look no different than the whatever the hell the Globes and MTV celebrate in any particular year.


I don't think 8 meant that the Academy Awards should "follow the zeitgeist" - which is always a path to wrongness. His example was Fahrenheit 9/11 winning the Palm at Cannes in the agitated political climate of those years. Now, Tarantino is the ultimate film buff and scholar. He must have realized that Moore's documentary had a limited aesthetic. In no way it was better cinema than Bad Education, 2046, The Edukators or goddamn Oldboy. He leaned towards it because he must have thought that, in that particular moment in time, it was the movie which was addressing the more urgent issues.

Column A, column B. Ultimately, I just don't have an inherent aversion to dated things, because I prefer to look at them as fascinating timestamps, and I do still believe that a "best of the year" film should have a raw power to its delivery that's separate from the zeitgeist that inspired or spoke to it. Take the way we look at world cinema: we tend to praise the universality of their stories and themes, but we are also required to acquire some knowledge of the cultural context it's released in in order to fully appreciate what the film set out to do; otherwise, what's the point of seeking out works from other cultures? I think it's essential to look at films from other time periods the same way. So an award-winning film growing dated and tarnishing prestige don't concern me, as long as its accomplishment and purpose were clear.

And honestly, I think some films can be more timeless because it's of the moment. Take Moonlight, for example, whose win spoke to what the zeitgeist wanted last year more than any of its other fellow nominees, versus something so removed from 2016 by design like La La Land. I wager that audiences in the future with their different sensibilities will find an easier time connecting to the former than the latter.

[Ezee E]

Open Range is FANTASTIC, but I think Waterworld is just awful, and an attempt at a Mad Max in the ocean. Dennis Hopper makes it a little interesting at least.

Haven't seen The Patriot, but I admire the different scopes that Costner has taken on.

[Ezee E]

The unrecognized performances of the year:

Patrick Stewart, Logan
Aubrey Plaza, Ingrid Goes West
Jessica Rothe, Happy Death Day
Elizabeth Olsen, Wind River and Ingrid Goes West

[Dead & Messed Up]

Jason Sudeikis in Colossal

[Grouchy]

When all of you were mentioning Patrick Stewart, I just assumed it was for Green Room.

[TGM]

When all of you were mentioning Patrick Stewart, I just assumed it was for Green Room.

That's from 2016. :P

[Sycophant]

Anime twitter lost its mind over the fact that the distributor Funimation pushed Your Name for consideration for 2016 with a very limited theatrical release before most anyone had heard of it. It might've stood a shot this year (though Coco will win no matter what, I assume).

[Milky Joe]

Pynchon, Pynchon, and Pynchon. I'm not saying each filmmaker needs to reinvent the wheel each time out; however, with Anderson, and Phantom Thread in particular, he seems to rely on cinematic and literary allusions as a substitute for character development. For instance, he names Vicky Kriep's character Alma and makes her Swedish so as to remind us of Persona but never gets around to explaining how a Swedish woman winds up working as a waitress in an English resort town in the 1950s. I don't see what's so high brow about calling a film out on lazy screenwriting.

I'd be interested to hear more about how you think TM is influenced by Pynchon. I wasn't expecting you to name a novelist as his influence. I've read almost all of Pynchon's novels and the thought never occurred to me—beyond some rocket metaphors, they are quite dissimilar.

Lazy screenwriting would be feeling the need to explain the totally mundane detail of why a Swedish woman is working in an English resort town (as if it matters at all—the two countries aren't that far apart, if she were Kenyan or Filipino I might question it). Alma must be foreign because she is the Other impinging on Woodcock's existence—that's character. Would it really have been less lazy of Anderson to write in a scene where Woodcock asks her how she wound up there and she says well my parents died and I went to live with my Aunt when I was 17? That's not character, it's trivia.

[Ezee E]

I did not care about how Alma became a waitress or how she got to the Café.

[Grouchy]

Also, how many other filmmakers can you name that are influenced by Pynchon? Can't be something you're tired of seeing already, baby doll.

[baby doll]

I'd be interested to hear more about how you think TM is influenced by Pynchon. I wasn't expecting you to name a novelist as his influence. I've read almost all of Pynchon's novels and the thought never occurred to me—beyond some rocket metaphors, they are quite dissimilar.Like the central characters in V. and Gravity's Rainbow, Joaquin Phoenix's character is a World War II-era misfit sailor who never lacks for willing sexual partners and sets off on a slightly absurdist narrative that brings him into contact with a thinly veiled version of a larger-than-life 20th century historical figure. I think it's fair to say that Anderson probably wouldn't have been able to write the film if he didn't have Pynchon's early novels as a source of inspiration.


Lazy screenwriting would be feeling the need to explain the totally mundane detail of why a Swedish woman is working in an English resort town (as if it matters at all—the two countries aren't that far apart, if she were Kenyan or Filipino I might question it). Alma must be foreign because she is the Other impinging on Woodcock's existence—that's character. Would it really have been less lazy of Anderson to write in a scene where Woodcock asks her how she wound up there and she says well my parents died and I went to live with my Aunt when I was 17? That's not character, it's trivia.I'll concede that, on the face of it, how Alma came to England is a fairly trivial matter, but it's nonetheless indicative of how thinly the characters have been conceived. In other words, external film references take the place of any internal motivation, so that Mrs. Danvers loyalty to Rebecca becomes the justification for Cyril's loyalty to Woodcock, thus precluding the film from ever becoming something more original than yet another film about an uptight older man whose carefully ordered existence gets upended by a free-spirited younger woman (cf., Educating Rita, The Accidental Tourist, and too many Woody Allen films to name).

[Grouchy]

This (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srFr86htJc4) is a pretty excellent video essay on PTA's themes throughout his work. To say you're selling him short as an auteur is an understatement, bd.

[StanleyK]

Ok, Taxi Driver went against One Flew Over a Cukoo's Nest. I still would have picked the Scorsese but that's a tough match.

Actually, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest won a year earlier. Taxi Driver lost to Rocky, and Scorsese wasn't even nominated for director (although the category wasn't too shabby that year):



John G. Avildsen – Rocky
Ingmar Bergman – Face to Face
Sidney Lumet – Network
Alan J. Pakula – All the President's Men
Lina Wertmüller – Seven Beauties

[Milky Joe]

In other words, external film references take the place of any internal motivation, so that Mrs. Danvers loyalty to Rebecca becomes the justification for Cyril's loyalty to Woodcock, thus precluding the film from ever becoming something more original than yet another film about an uptight older man whose carefully ordered existence gets upended by a free-spirited younger woman

Only, perhaps, to someone who knows enough film history to a) notice and b) care. I see just as much of The Shining in it as I do Hitchcock—it's about the colossal, archetypical divide between men and women and the misunderstandings that arise from that situation, handled with a delicacy and grace that few other male filmmakers could ever hope to achieve.

[baby doll]

Only, perhaps, to someone who knows enough film history to a) notice and b) care. I see just as much of The Shining in it as I do Hitchcock—it's about the colossal, archetypical divide between men and women and the misunderstandings that arise from that situation, handled with a delicacy and grace that few other male filmmakers could ever hope to achieve.If you're talking about abstract themes (as opposed to character and situation), it's possible to link any film to any other film ever made (e.g., La Passion de Jeanne d'Arc and Molly's Game are both stories about young women who are judged by men).

Also, just to clarify my position: I'm not necessarily against making more films about older men whose ordered lives are upended by a new relationship with a younger woman so long as the man and the woman in question are specific, original creations. In other words, are the characters' various traits internally coherent or do they feel arbitrarily glued on? Indeed, for a viewer who hasn't seen Persona, Alma's nationality (which is the virtually the only thing we learn about her character's past prior to her meeting Woodcock) must seem especially arbitrary as it's not at all relevant to the plot in the sense that it doesn't motivate any of her actions and is only remarked upon once in the dialogue. (As for signalling her otherness, she would be no less other if she had been born and raised in the Midlands.)

[baby doll]

This (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=srFr86htJc4) is a pretty excellent video essay on PTA's themes throughout his work. To say you're selling him short as an auteur is an understatement, bd.On the contrary, as I confessed in the Phantom Thread thread, I'm probably more fond of Anderson's films than I would be had I been born before the 1980s. All I'm saying is that, despite this, I still don't rate him as highly as Bergman or Hitchcock (or Pynchon, for that matter), which I don't think is a controversial position.

[Pop Trash]

Also, "Raging Bull" and Martin Scorsese lost out to "Ordinary People" and first-timer Robert Redford. So, same story 10 years apart.


I'll go to my grave thinking Ordinary People is a better film than Raging Bull.

[Pop Trash]

For instance, he names Vicky Kriep's character Alma and makes her Swedish so as to remind us of Persona but never gets around to explaining how a Swedish woman winds up working as a waitress in an English resort town in the 1950s. I don't see what's so high brow about calling a film out on lazy screenwriting.

Dude. You realize Alfred Hitchcock's wife was named Alma, right? Well, I guess you do now.

[baby doll]

Dude. You realize Alfred Hitchcock's wife was named Alma, right? Well, I guess you do now.I hadn't made that connection but so what? Anderson gets two references for the price of one. That doesn't invalidate my point about him substituting cinephile references for character development.

[Pop Trash]

I hadn't made that connection but so what? Anderson gets two references for the price of one. That doesn't invalidate my point about him substituting cinephile references for character development.

I just didn't get a Persona vibe at all from this.

[baby doll]

I just didn't get a Persona vibe at all from this.Maybe it's just me, but this Alma's decision to intentionally feed Woodcock poisonous mushrooms reminded me of the other Alma's decision to leave a piece of broken glass where she knew Liv Ullmann would step on it.

[Pop Trash]

Maybe it's just me, but this Alma's decision to intentionally feed Woodcock poisonous mushrooms reminded me of the other Alma's decision to leave a piece of broken glass where she knew Liv Ullmann would step on it.

One of my friends told me the mushrooms were inspired by a Powell & Pressburger movie, but I'm not sure which one. Personally, I kept thinking of The Beguiled, but it went in a different direction than either version.

[Spinal]

Finished the Best Picture nominees over the weekend. All in all, I thought it was an uncharacteristically solid group, even taking into account the absence of some of the year's best films. Final assessment:

1. The Shape of Water ****
2. Get Out ***1/2
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbings, Missouri ***1/2
4. Phantom Thread ***1/2
5. Lady Bird ***1/2
6. Darkest Hour ***
7. The Post ***
8. Dunkirk **1/2
9. Call Me By Your Name **

[Irish]

Del Toro won the DGA last night.

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2018/02/03/shape-water-catches-late-momentum-unpredictable-oscar-race/

[Peng]

I generally liked-to-loved past del Toro films, so my least favorite of his (and also least favorite of Best Pic-nominated films, tied with Darkest Hour) becoming his breakthrough awards-wise is a little disheartening, although he's so intensely likeable I can't begrudge seeing him going up on stage, potentially twice, on Oscar night.

[Irish]

Peele wins original, Ivory adapted at the WGAs:

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-writers-guild-awards-20180211-story,amp.html

[Spinal]

I saw the Oscar nominated Live Action Shorts over the weekend. Good crop. Only one that I thought was a bit of a weak link. I would rank them like this:

1. Dekalb Elementary - tense throughout, focused, remarkable lead performance, deeply affecting
2. The Eleven O'Clock - a welcome straight-up comedy in the midst of the issue-driven drama, hilarious and clever
3. Watu Wote - the one that perhaps most looks like it could be cut from a feature film, good cinematography and performances, messaging is a little on-the-nose
4. My Nephew Emmett - this is another tense, harrowing film about an awful bit of historical violence, works well, but I wasn't crazy about it artistically, lighting was too dark and the performances not up to the level of the others
5. The Silent Child - ok, I guess, but it really feels like a training video you might watch at work in a sensitivity class, a bit blunt although the kid is sweet

Predicted actual winner: Watu Wote

[Spinal]

I saw the Best Animated Short nominees over the weekend and hoo boy, it's a pretty unimpressive crop. I would rank them like this:

1. Revolting Rhymes - This one is longer than all four of the others put together. I don't know that it's anything special, but I did enjoy it as a mildly amusing adaptation of Roald Dahl. It has a couple chuckles and a satisfying story overall.
2. Garden Party - Frogs have taken over an expensive mansion. You don't find out why until the end. Impressive animation. Again ... mildly amusing.
3. Negative Space - A short, sweet celebration of a father and his lessons about packing a suitcase. Didn't like the animation style here, but the sentiment expressed is nice.
4. Lou - Pretty much everything about Pixar that is insufferable packed into 6 minutes. At least there wasn't a treacly song, I guess.
5. Dear Basketball - How in the world did this get nominated?! A five-minute stroking of Kobe Bryant's ego. Who is this for? I can only assume that if Bryant played anywhere but Los Angeles, we wouldn't be seeing this as an Oscar contender.

Predicted actual winner: Garden Party

[Henry Gale]

4. Lou - Pretty much everything about Pixar that is insufferable packed into 6 minutes. At least there wasn't a treacly song, I guess.

You don't lava when they do this?

[Idioteque Stalker]

You don't lava when they do this?

Neg rep

[Mal]

I saw the Oscar nominated Live Action Shorts over the weekend. Good crop. Only one that I thought was a bit of a weak link. I would rank them like this:


That's how I'd probably rank them too. Silent Child had a great message but it was seriously overproduced. I did cry during it because I've studied ASL education and absolutely wanted to smack those parents for their assumptions regarding her learning.

If Dekalb wins I'll be so happy- mesmerizing film.

[Spinal]

Conventional wisdom says that Three Billboards is the favorite to win Best Picture. But with the weird Oscar preferential balloting system favoring the least disliked film, am I crazy to think it might be Lady Bird that takes this?

[DavidSeven]

Conventional wisdom says that Three Billboards is the favorite to win Best Picture. But with the weird Oscar preferential balloting system favoring the least disliked film, am I crazy to think it might be Lady Bird that takes this?

I can definitely see that happening. In fact, it's hard for me to believe a film as divisive as Three Billboards, or as niche as The Shape of Water, could win in a preferential voting scheme. Three Billboards may suffer the same fate as La La Land, having the most "lovers" and "haters" will kills its chances. Lady Bird is safe in the way that Moonlight was; slightly under the radar and doesn't illicit a lot of strong negative opinions.

The predictive value of industry awards seems to be dying a bit. This dude's model (https://jameseng.land/Oscars-2018) has apparently predicted all of the Best Picture winners correctly under the preferential voting scheme. And all he does it poll the preferences of site visitors. According to this, Lady Bird and Get Out would be the real favorites.

[Grouchy]

The Shape of Water is gonna win. I thought that was a bit obvious.

[Watashi]

If Get Out wins Best Screenplay over Three Billboards, I think it wins Best Picture, but if for some unknown reason, Three Billboards wins Best Editing, then it becomes the favorite.

This is the widest open Best Picture race in years. Dunkirk could win and it would not surprise me.

[Grouchy]

The Academy Awards are not about awarding good cinema. They're about politics and social zetigeist. Sometimes, in the best years, those two align perfectly. But right now, what Hollywood cares about is attacking Trump.

That rules out every movie in the ballot except for Get Out, Three Billboards, Shape of Water and The Post. Get Out is a Horror movie and it targets liberal hipocrisy more than redneck mentality, so that's out. Three Billboards could be a possibility, but it's as far from the mushy mushy stuff the Academy likes as it can possibly be - dark comedy has never been appreciated by the Oscars. That leaves Shape and Post, and given that Del Toro is an inmigrant director (from Mexico, no less) and Spielberg's film is sort of flying under the radar in comparison, I think it's a lock in for Shape.

[baby doll]

Kristin Thompson wrote a blog post last year about how, in recent years, there have been two best picture winners: the character-driven indie with "light" in the title that gets the big prize (Spotlight, Moonlight) and the technical feat with a place in the title that cleans up in the craft categories (Max Max: Fury Road, La La Land). If the trend continues (excepting the titles part), my guess is Lady Bird wins the top prize (especially as the ranked ballot thing skews toward bland consensus favourites) and Del Toro for best director.

[Peng]

The Academy Awards are not about awarding good cinema. They're about politics and social zetigeist. Sometimes, in the best years, those two align perfectly. But right now, what Hollywood cares about is attacking Trump.

That rules out every movie in the ballot except for Get Out, Three Billboards, Shape of Water and The Post. Get Out is a Horror movie and it targets liberal hipocrisy more than redneck mentality, so that's out. Three Billboards could be a possibility, but it's as far from the mushy mushy stuff the Academy likes as it can possibly be - dark comedy has never been appreciated by the Oscars. That leaves Shape and Post, and given that Del Toro is an inmigrant director (from Mexico, no less) and Spielberg's film is sort of flying under the radar in comparison, I think it's a lock in for Shape.

I feel like this is based more on (probably low?) perception towards this award. The 'honest oscar voter' articles, although by no mean representative, have increased enough in past years to indicate that at least many, many voters don't think that much politically like this, more like instinctive like or dislike (though the influx of newer, younger, more diverse voters may complicate this further).

[Watashi]

I dunno, I know everyone is making this out to be a Three Billboards vs. Shape of Water race, but nothing is really set in stone and Get Out, Lady Bird, and Dunkirk have a lot of momentum to pull an upset.

Even though Shape of Water has the most nominations, it could only end the night with two wins (Best Score and Best Director). Dunkirk will steal a lot of technical awards away and I do not seeing Shape of Water winning Best Editing or Best Screenplay in a very crowded year.

The directing snub for McDonagh really hurts his film's chances for BP. It's very divisive and most voters can't make a stand if it's racist or not. I think it wins it's two Acting awards, but that's it. I think the Original Screenplay race is between Gerwig and Peele, but man oh man, if Three Billboards wins it, that will make things interesting.

[DavidSeven]

Something like Spotlight didn’t win for political reasons. It won because it existed in that high-brow consensus-builder sweet spot and nothing about it offended anyone’s sensibilities. In the preferential system, it’s all about which film lands comfortably in the top half of most ballots. I’m not sure The Shape of Water checks all the boxes.

I’m leaning toward baby doll’s prediction: Best Director to Del Toro and BP to Lady Bird. Get Out as a major sleeper for BP; it’s seemingly niche, but appreciation for the film seems incredibly broad.

[Spinal]

The Shape of Water is gonna win. I thought that was a bit obvious.

I think there are at least 3 other films more likely.

[Mysterious Dude]

If Three Billboards wins, it will replace Crash as my least favorite best picture winner of the century.

[Henry Gale]

If Get Out wins Best Screenplay over Three Billboards, I think it wins Best Picture, but if for some unknown reason, Three Billboards wins Best Editing, then it becomes the favorite.

This is the widest open Best Picture race in years. Dunkirk could win and it would not surprise me.

These really are the keys, and I feel like a lot of people wilkl want to award McDonagh for Screenplay or Picture because he was snubbed for Director. And because Del Toro is the lock for Director in the middle, same logic for Lady Bird and Get Out for Screenplay or Picture since they have little chance elsewhere. It's so hard to gauge.

Though I do think Get Out for Screenplay is a loose lock, and could just as easily be the film's one win, just like CMBYN.

Lady Bird either gets Picture and/or a surprise acting win, or nothing at all.

I really can't imagine Three Billboards getting Editing though.

My full predictions and thoughts:

BEST PICTURE
1. The Shape of Water
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Lady Bird
5. Phantom Thread (surprisingly big presence in the nominations, the "newest" movie of awards season / short-term memory advantage, anecdotal accounts from industry writers of countless voters saying its their favourite)
6. Dunkirk
7. Call Me by Your Name
8. The Post
9. Darkest Hour

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (Would be youngest lead actor to ever win, also doesn't have the years of shady behaviour / domestic violence allegations that Oldman does)
3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (Final performance standing O potential, etc.)

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (If the fans of this movie come out to support it for its one nomination.)

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (If the Academy just fucking loves this movie and are a little bit over McDormand winning everything. Keep in mind voting ended in just in the last few days.)
3. Saoirse Ronan Lady Bird (Because people love Lady Bird but aren't sure where else to show their love for it in voting.)

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
¨ Allison Janney, I, Tonya
¨ Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (Same thoughts as Hawkins and Ronan above. It's been a long awards season.)
¨ Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (The wildest dark horse prediction, but imagine a world where she won and Oldman didn't? The ultimate Time's Up moment.)

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
¨ Coco

CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Mudbound
3. The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN
¨ Phantom Thread

DIRECTING
1. The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro
2. Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
3. Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
¨ Faces Places

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
¨ Edith+Eddie

FILM EDITING
1. Dunkirk (The "Don't Go Away Mad" Awards will likely be here and in Sound categories.)
2. Baby Driver (BAFTA!)
3. The Shape of Water (Pretty much just because it's the technical frontrunner, and that working montage is nicely flashy to make it memorable.)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
¨ A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
¨ Darkest Hour

ORIGINAL SCORE
1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread (I wish. Also it has the most score.)
3. Dunkirk (This younger Academy might've caught him at Coachella)

ORIGINAL SONG
1. “Remember Me” Coco
Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
2. “Mighty River” Mudbound, Mary J. Blige (because she won't win an acting Oscar, they might think to award her here instead)
¨ “Mystery of Love” Call Me by Your Name, Sufjan Stevens (Because I can dream, and the performance is gonna be dope.)

PRODUCTION DESIGN
¨ The Shape of Water

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
¨ Garden Party

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
¨ DeKalb Elementary

SOUND EDITING
¨ Dunkirk

SOUND MIXING
¨ Dunkirk

(^One of those might randomly go to Baby Driver (because BAFTA!) or Star Wars instead.. who knows)

VISUAL EFFECTS
¨ War for the Planet of the Apes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
¨ Call Me by Your Name

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
¨ Get Out

[Spinal]

I would love it if The Shape of Water wins, but I don't think that's very likely. I'm going to pick Lady Bird for my guessing pool. I may be over-thinking it, but I can't shake the last two years and how unexpected they were.

[Mal]

If Lady Bird wins I will run into the street and scream with joy.

[Pop Trash]

I think Moonlight really threw a monkey-wrench into the expectations of what could win. I've read that actors make up the biggest voting block in the Academy and actors really love the cast of Three Billboards and really like Martin McDonagh in general (he's a respected playwrite after all), plus it won the SAG award for best cast. That said, the backlash against Three Billboards began in earnest in January and most of the Oscar voting is done in February, so it's possible that effected the outcome (see also: the La La Land backlash last year). The tiered system might push something like Get Out, Ladybird, or even Dunkirk to the front.

[Pop Trash]

If Three Billboards wins, it will replace Crash as my least favorite best picture winner of the century.

Same. Movies like The King's Speech or A Beautiful Mind are middle brow fluff, but ultimately fine. Crash and Three Billboards actively irritated me.

[Irish]

Del Toro and "Shape of Water" won the DGA and PGA, respectively, so I thought they were frontrunner favorites.

Then again, Peele and "Get Out" just won the Spirit Awards so I dunno.

There was a guy on the Vanity Fair podcast who predicted "Dunkirk" as Best Picture because of the preferential system. He thinks it'll land somewhere in the high-middle of most ballots.

If I had my choice, "Lady Bird" would near sweep. With maybe a screenplay award for McDonagh by way of consolation.

[MadMan]

After tonight, Lady Bird has my vote for BP. And I want Peele to win Director, but Del Toro is most likely (and highly deserving, too.)

As for Supporting Actor, that category is stacked.

[MadMan]

My ranking of the BP noms would be:

Lady Bird
SOW
CMBYN
Get Out
Three Billboards
The Post
Phantom Thread
Dunkirk
The Darkest Hour

[Pop Trash]

I'd go:

Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
SOW
Dunkirk
The Post
Three Billboards

Haven't seen but might see:
CMBYN

No interest in seeing:
The Darkest Hour

[baby doll]

My ranking of the BP noms would be: Get Out
Phantom Thread
Lady Bird
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water

I have minimal interest in seeing Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, or The Post, and of course none at all in The Darkest Hour. Of the ones I've seen, Get Out and Phantom Thread are the only ones I'd consider watching again, though I tend to doubt that either would improve much on second viewing; like most Oscar contenders, they seem designed to be exhausted the first time around. (In fact, as much as I usually like Anderson's films, probably only Magnolia has to be seen more than once--which may help to explain why it didn't win any Oscars.)

[Ezee E]

The technical winner gathering most of the awards, with another movie taking the best picture has been the biggest trend of 2010's to me:

2010: Hurt Locker VS Avatar (although Hurt Locker got plenty of tech awards)
2011: King's Speech VS Inception
2012: THe Artist VS Hugo
2013: Argo Vs Life of Pi/Les Miserables/Lincoln
2014: 12 Years a Slave VS Gravity
2015: Birdman VS Grand Budapest Hotel
2016: Spotlight VS Mad Max: Fury Road/Revenant
2017: Moonlight VS La La Land

I'm going with Get Out VS. Shape of Water/Dunkirk

[Spinal]

I was all sold on my Lady Bird theory. And then, Get Out went and won the Spirit Awards. Now, I have no damn idea.

[Grouchy]

Get Out
Phantom Thread
Lady Bird
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water


I have minimal interest in seeing Call Me By Your Name, Dunkirk, or The Post, and of course none at all in The Darkest Hour. Of the ones I've seen, Get Out and Phantom Thread are the only ones I'd consider watching again, though I tend to doubt that either would improve much on second viewing; like most Oscar contenders, they seem designed to be exhausted the first time around. (In fact, as much as I usually like Anderson's films, probably only Magnolia has to be seen more than once--which may help to explain why it didn't win any Oscars.)Get Out is definitively a movie that offers a lot more on second viewing. So are There Will Be Blood and The Master.