Oscar Predictions 2014

[Ezee E]

It's pretty funny to watch the bloggers argue over the Oscars already. To me, predicting the nominations has been going on as far back as when I was posting on Rotten Tomatoes. So let's do this:

BEST PICTURE:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Butler
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska - added 12/3
Wolf of Wall Street

REMOVED: Captain Phillips (10/12)

BEST DIRECTOR:
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Lee Daniels, The Butler
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips - added 12/3 (whuh?)
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Forest Whitaker, The Butler

REMOVED: Robert Redford, All is Lost[ - removed 10/12
Joaquin Phoenix, Her - added 10/12, removed 12/3

BEST ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Color (too much hope here I think)
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

REMOVED:
Kate Winslet, Labor Day - 12/3

Best Supporting Actor:
Barkhad Abadi, Captain Phillips - 12/3
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks - 12/3
Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

REMOVED:
James Franco, Spring Breakers (too much wish here too)
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher (not being released) - 10/12
Bruce Dern, Nebraska - 12/3
Josh Brolin, Labor Day - 12/3

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle (added 12/3)
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Lea Seydoux, Blue is the Warmest Color
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler

REMOVED 12/3:
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Amy Adams, American Hustle

ADDED 12/3:
BEST DOCUMENTARY:
The Act of Killing,” Final Cut for Real
“Blackfish,” Our Turn Productions
“The Square,” Noujaim Films and Maktube Productions
“Stories We Tell,” National Film Board of Canada
“Tim’s Vermeer,” High Delft Pictures

[Ezee E]

The Counselor, American Hustle, and Out of the Furnace are the three wild ones that I can't really predict. I feel like The Counselor could get by without any festival play, but Out of the Furnace seems like it could've benefitted. American Hustle will probably be the best of the three...

Monument Men seems like Ocean's Eleven in WWII. Probably a good movie, and will probably be nominated for a lot of Golden Globes, and then we'll see that it's simply a very, very entertaining movie.

I also feel like Oscar Isaac could potentially win the Comedy/Musical Golden Globe for Llewyn Davis which would certainly put him in there.

Saving Mr. Banks. Maybe I'm in doubt, but it just looks like a holiday movie to me. Walter Mitty too....

Grace of Monaco and Diane haven't made a peep. Diane has even premiered in London. Without any festival interest, I feel like they are just going to be big busts.

Matthew Mc has supporting roles in Mud and Wolf of Wall Street that may very well cancel each other out. I love seeing double nominations.

I think 12 Years a Slave is going to dominate this thing.

[Stay Puft]

12 Years a Slave for everything.

Gravity for some technical awards.

[MadMan]

Leo finally being nominated again? I guess if anyone can do it for him its Marty.

[Morris Schæffer]

Rush is getting sensational reviews right now and Daniel Bruhl's Lauda looks like a complete transformation. An amazing but unflattering performance, or so the reviews say, complete with rodent teeth and a somewhat high-pitched voice that doesn't in the least sound like his own but still entirely believable I would reckon.

[Gamblor]

Maybe it's just me, but the Saving Mr. Banks trailer made it look like Thompson is definitely that film's lead.

[Lazlo]

Rush is getting sensational reviews right now and Daniel Bruhl's Lauda looks like a complete transformation. An amazing but unflattering performance, or so the reviews say, complete with rodent teeth and a somewhat high-pitched voice that doesn't in the least sound like his own but still entirely believable I would reckon.

He's amazing in it, but I think American viewers' unfamiliarity with Lauda will hurt him as people won't know how great of a job he's doing.

[baby doll]

I predict that Jack Nicholson will wear sunglasses inside and at night, and that liberal bloggers complain about somebody saying something that perpetuates rape culture (either during the telecast itself or on Twitter the evening of). Also, there will be a montage during which the studio audience applauds the dead people they're able to recognize, and that people who don't really care about film will write opinion pieces carping about how this year's best picture nominees made less money collectively than Iron Man 3, as if further proof was needed that liberal Hollywood elites like Brad Dourif are out of touch with eight year old boys.

[Ezee E]

Maybe it's just me, but the Saving Mr. Banks trailer made it look like Thompson is definitely that film's lead.

Maybe. Won't be the first time a lead is put as a supporting, etc.

I mean, Bruce Dern is being put as a Supporting Lead, and he's clearly the main character, but... Oscars.

[Irish]

I predict that Jack Nicholson will wear sunglasses inside and at night, and that liberal bloggers complain about somebody saying something that perpetuates rape culture (either during the telecast itself or on Twitter the evening of). Also, there will be a montage during which the studio audience applauds the dead people they're able to recognize, and that people who don't really care about film will write opinion pieces carping about how this year's best picture nominees made less money collectively than Iron Man 3, as if further proof was needed that liberal Hollywood elites like Brad Dourif are out of touch with eight year old boys.

This thread existing in September reminds me of those department stores that put up Christmas decorations in August.

[Ivan Drago]

I read one blog that predicted that Ben Stiller's remake of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty would be nominated for Best Picture.

It looks amazing visually, but Best Picture? That's a bit of a stretch.

[Ezee E]

This thread existing in September reminds me of those department stores that put up Christmas decorations in August.

:lol: Pretty much goes along with the bloggers. Alrighty then!

[eternity]

Maybe. Won't be the first time a lead is put as a supporting, etc.

I mean, Bruce Dern is being put as a Supporting Lead, and he's clearly the main character, but... Oscars.

I think you have that backwards. They're running Dern as lead, despite many (okay...maybe just Jeff Wells) begging for him to go supporting out of fear that he'll get drowned out of the running.

Tapley has Thompson in Lead, so I reckon that's where she's running.

[Ezee E]

Everyone has Thompson as lead, but nobody's seen the movie. I see the movie, and it seems like it's Walt Disney doing his thang to get the rights. I dunno.

[Ezee E]

OSCAR SHORTLIST:

The Act of Killing,” Final Cut for Real
“The Armstrong Lie,” The Kennedy/Marshall Company
“Blackfish,” Our Turn Productions
“The Crash Reel,” KP Rides Again
“Cutie and the Boxer,” Ex Lion Tamer and Cine Mosaic
“Dirty Wars,” Civic Bakery
“First Cousin Once Removed,” Experiments in Time, Light & Motion
“God Loves Uganda,” Full Credit Productions
“Life According to Sam,” Fine Films
“Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer,” Roast Beef Productions
“The Square,” Noujaim Films and Maktube Productions
“Stories We Tell,” National Film Board of Canada
“Tim’s Vermeer,” High Delft Pictures
“20 Feet from Stardom,” Gil Friesen Productions and Tremolo Productions
“Which Way Is the Front Line from Here? The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington,” Tripoli Street

[eternity]

as of 12/3/13:

BEST PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST DIRECTOR
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell - American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
Joel and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST ACTOR
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Robert Redford - All is Lost
Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Bruce Dern - Nebraska

BEST ACTRESS
Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
Judi Dench - Philomena
Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
James Gandolfini - Enough Said
Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Lupita N'yongo - 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler
June Squibb - Nebraska

[Henry Gale]

Yup, eternity, you more or less have what I expect things to look like in the big categories. My biggest change (and worry) is that Hanks gets pushed out of Lead for Captain Phillips (which he is incredible in) to make room for DiCaprio, but makes it into Supporting for Saving Mr. Banks (which I'm sure he's fine in, but...) pushing out his similarly impressive co-star Abdi.

Not to mention if Greengrass doesn't squeeze into Directing, its Best Picture chances will mostly be justified through technical nominations, but I'd say it's both great enough and too financially successful to fade from the race.

I'd still like to see the odder outsiders like Her, Blue is the Warmest Colour and maybe even Walter Mitty find their way into things. Also, I find it refreshing to see female acting categories so genuinely, fiercely competitive now. Remember the days of Annette Bening simply showing up on set for something like Running With Scissors got her a nomination?

[eternity]

Yup, eternity, you more or less have what I expect things to look like in the big categories. My biggest change (and worry) is that Hanks gets pushed out of Lead for Captain Phillips (which he is incredible in) to make room for DiCaprio, but makes it into Supporting for Saving Mr. Banks (which I'm sure he's fine in, but...) pushing out his similarly impressive co-star Abdi.

Not to mention if Greengrass doesn't squeeze into Directing, its Best Picture chances will mostly be justified through technical nominations, but I'd say it's both great enough and too financially successful to fade from the race.

I'd still like to see the odder outsiders like Her, Blue is the Warmest Colour and maybe even Walter Mitty find their way into things. Also, I find it refreshing to see female acting categories so genuinely, fiercely competitive now. Remember the days of Annette Bening simply showing up on set for something like Running With Scissors got her a nomination?

When it comes to the Academy, one of my unshakable rules is to always count DiCaprio out. If he could get nominated, assume he won't. If he does, assume he won't win. It's been working for years.

[Ezee E]

What's weird is his nomination for Blood Diamond is his most forgettable role of all his movies.