Oscar Predictions <cont'd>

[Ezee E]

Original:

BEST PICTURE

E LATE SEPTEMBER
American Gangster
Atonement
The Kite Runner
No Country For Old Men
Sweeney Todd

12/3
Atonement
The Kite Runner
No Country For Old Men
Sweeney Todd
There Will Be Blood

Wats
American Gangster
Atonement
Lions for Lambs
Juno
No Country for Old Men


BEST DIRECTOR

E Early October
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Coen Brothers - No Country for Old Men
Marc Forster - The Kite Runner
Ridley Scott - American Gangster
Joe Wright - Atonement

12/3
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Coen Brothers - No Country For Old Men
Marc Forster - The Kite Runner
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly


Wats
Coen Brothers -- No Country For Old Men
Todd Haynes -- I'm Not There
Robert Redford -- Lions for Lambs
Ridley Scott -- American Gangster
Joe Wright -- Atonement



BEST ACTOR

E Late October
Daniel Day-Lewis -- There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp -- Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch -- Into The Wild
Joaquin Phoenix -- Reservation Road
Denzel Washington -- American Gangster

12/3
Daniel Day-Lewis -- There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp -- Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch -- Into The Wild
Philip Seymour Hoffman -- The Savages/Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Denzel Washington -- American Gangster

Wats
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
James McAvoy, Atonement
Viggo Mortenson, Eastern Promises
Joaquin Phoenix, Reservation Road



BEST ACTRESS

E Early October
Cate Blanchett -- Ellizabeth: The Golden Age
Marion Cotillard -- La Vie En Rose
Nicole Kidman -- Margot at the Wedding
Keira Knightley -- Atonement
Ellen Page -- Juno

12/3
Marion Cotillard -- La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie -- A Mighty Heart
Nicole Kidman -- Margot at the Wedding
Laura Linney -- The Savages
Ellen Page -- Juno

Wats
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Ellen Page, Juno
Nicole Kidman, Margot at the Wedding
Giovanna Mezzogiorno, Love in the Time of Cholera
Julie Christie, Away from Her


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

E Early October
Javier Bardem -- No Country for Old Men
Russell Crowe -- American Gangster
Paul Dano -- There Will Be Blood
Philip Seymour Hoffman -- Charlie Wilson’s War
Mark Ruffalo -- Reservation Road

12/3
Javier Bardem -- No Country For Old Men
Paul Dano -- There Will Be Blood
Philip Seymour Hoffman -- Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook -- Into The Wild
Tommy Lee Jones or Josh Brolin -- No Country For Old Men

Wats
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Russell Crowe, American Gangster
Mark Ruffalo, Reservation Road
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

E Early October
Cate Blanchett -- I’m Not There
Helena Bonham Carter -- Sweeney Todd
Jennifer Jason Leigh - Margot at the WEdding
Samantha Morten -- Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Saoirse Ronan -- Atonement

12/3
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Helena Bonham Carter -- Sweeney Todd
Jennifer Jason-Leigh -- Margot at the Wedding
Saoirse Ronan -- Atonement
Amy Ryan -- Gone Baby Gone

Wats
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd
Romola Garai, Atonement
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Margot at the Wedding
Meryl Streep, Lions for Lambs

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eastern Promises
Juno
Margot at the Wedding
Once
Ratatouille

12/3
I'm Not There
Juno
Margot at the Wedding
Ratatouille
The Savages

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Atonement
Into The Wild
The Kite Runner
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

12/3
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

BEST FOREIGN FILM
The Band’s Visit
The Counterfeiters
Lust, Caution
Four Months, Three Weeks, and Two Days
Secret Sunshine

12/3
The Counterfeiters
Four Months, Three Weeks, and Two Days
Lust, Caution
Persepolis
Secret Sunshine

BEST CINEMTOGRAPHY
3:10 To Yuma
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Into The Wild
Sweeney Todd

12/3
3:10 to Yuma
Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
There Will Be Blood

BEST ANIMATED MOVIE
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

12/3
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

BEST EDITING
American Gangster
Atonement
Into The Wild
No Country For Old Men
Zodiac

12/3
American Gangster
Atonement
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country For Old Men
Zodiac

BEST ART DIRECTION
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Harry Potter: Order of the Phoenix
Mr. Magorium’s Wonder Emporium
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Sweeney Todd

12/3
Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Harry Potter: Order of the Phoenix
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Sweeney Todd

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
3:10 To Yuma
Elizabeth: The golden Age
Hairspray
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Sweeney Todd

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers
Zodiac

12/16
300
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers

BEST MAKEUP
Hairspray
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Sweeney Todd

BEST SCORE
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Into the Wild
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood

BEST SOUND
The Bourne Ultimatum
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Ratatouille
Sweeney Todd
Transformers

BEST SOUND EDITING
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Ratatouille
Transformers

BEST SONG
Hairspray
Into The Wild
Once
Ratatouille
Sweeney Todd

BEST DOCUMENTARY
In The Shadow of the Moon
No end In Sight
Rwanda Now
Sicko
War Dance

[Ezee E]

Adapted Screenplay is stacked this year.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly will be nominated for something. I'm just wondering how many theaters it'll be released in. It should now be a shoe-in for Best Writing, but should also get Directing, Editing, and Cinematography. If not more.

Can we count American Gangster out yet?

[Briare]

My two cents on best picture, so far:

As of now, we've yet to see exactly how Sweeney Todd or Charlie Wilson's War will go. Todd starts screening right at the end of the month, but I have heard zero on the Nichols thing since the trailer. Its shaping up to be a disaster. While it still has a lot of potential to be excellent, its prospects for oscars might be cooked. Only exceptional critical acclaim and good BO can save it- and that goes for Sweeney Todd as well. The Kite Runner and Juno remain the only potential nominees for best picture yet to be put into a general release although both have done either the festival circuit or have been screened for the critics. With 11 reviews at RT, The Kite Runner has dipped into rotten territory for the time being and I think it will take a massive recovery and a huge campaign to save it. Juno could be seen as the little indie that could for this year, but comparisons to Little Miss Sunshine could hurt it in the same way The Departed's win last year has spelled potential doom for American Gangster. The well received crime procedural has been box office dynamite and its critical showing while steady, has not been spectacular. Should Sweeney or Charlie [or both] fail, I think it'll fill shoes because of its pedigree and nothing else. Atonement is the film to beat this oscar season, with good overseas box office and so far, 100% so far at RT with over 20 reviews, this thing could prove to be unstoppable, should it win awards at the Globes and with the critics. It goes limited on December 5. Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood, another heavy hitter this winter has proven to puzzle some of the more mainstream critics because the film is apparently a lot more strange than it was thought to be from the previews. However, it didn't hurt Magnolia's strong showing at the oscars, including a screenplay nod for PTA and I think it will still show strong but weak showings of these potential contenders may prove helpful for the handful of early fall critics darlings, especially Gone Baby Gone, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Michael Clayton and Into the Wild. Last but not least, the Coen brothers film is a shoe in for a nomination.

[balmakboor]

I'm still expecting 10 or 11 noms for Diary of the Dead.

[Ezee E]

Alright. It's the beginning of December, and nothing is really certain at this point. For those who love discussing and predicting Oscars, this should be an entertaining year.

BEST PICTURE:
No Country For Old Men - This SEEMS like the only movie that is certain of at least getting a nomination, but would it be too dark for a winner? Perhaps. But a Best Director win seems very possible right now.

American Gangster - Uncertain as it seems like it did well with critics and audiences, but it won't be ending up on any "best of" lists this year unless it's acting. However, for some reason, it still lingers in the Best Picture area. In three weeks it may be gone.

Atonement - Is it just me or did it lose its steam?

The Kite Runner - When's it being released? Reviews are all over the place on this one, so it is too tough to say. It won't be nominated for Best Drama at the Golden Globes, but that's basically giving the Best Foreign Film award to it instead, so it sort of evens out.

Sweeney Todd - I called it, and I'm still sticking with it. It has apparently surprised a few people as being better then they thought, as well as a lot bloodier then they though. Sweet.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - It looks like this might be the Critics Darling that will generate a few nominations for that reason, but it might not have a possibility of getting Best Picture. This might be that 5th Director slot that an obscure director always ends up in.

There Will Be Blood - It might just be in my head, but it seems like there's some good buzz behind this, enough that it may get some Best Picture consideration, especially in a year when there's mostly small, great movies as opposed to the BIG, "pretty" good movies that tend to get nominated.

Juno - This one will be relying on the Best Comedy award at the Globes. I honestly don't think it will do it, but Little Miss Sunshine and Sideways have done it before. Juno is a movie that seems to be in between those type of movies. Diablo Cody is a shoe-in because people will like to say her name for an award winner.

The winner for Best Original Screenplay and self-given name:

DIABLO CODY

Cool huh?

Into The Wild, Michael Clayton, 3:10 To Yuma, Once, Zodiac, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, and Gone Baby Gone - Count these out. They'll get nominations in other award shows, and may get a nomination or two elsewhere, but Best Picture? Nope. I doubt it.


My predictions are changed on the first post.

[Ezee E]

Visual Effects is down to 15 movies:
"Beowulf"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Evan Almighty"
"The Golden Compass"
"Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix"
"I Am Legend"
"Live Free Or Die Hard"
"National Treasure: Book Of Secrets"
"Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End"
"Ratatouille,"
"Spider-Man 3"
"Sunshine"
"300"
"Transformers"
"The Water Horse"

WTF is The Water Horse?

No Zodiac? I guess I'll have 300 take its place.

[Briare]

Best Picture

That list looks accurate, except switch out Kite Runner for Michael Clayton and you have the official Academy shortlist. No Country is the only lock at this point, Atonement is fairly certain as well. Michael Clayton's buzz has gone up significantly in recent weeks due to its extremely warm reception from everyone handing out nominations and awards.

-Atonement
-Michael Clayton
-No Country for Old Men
-Sweeney Todd
-There Will Be Blood

Sweeney seems to be the wildcard, but TWBB is pretty much a wildcard also. Either are exchangeable for Juno or Diving Bell. I don't think AMPAS will select American Gangster.

Tony Gilroy might give Diablo Cody a run for her money in the screenplay department. Other than that, thats sewn up.

The race really is Julie Christie and Ellen Page. Marion Cotillard is pretty much a lock for a nomination as well. Laura Linney and Angelina Jolie are my other picks in the actress department.

As far as the supporting awards go, its Cate Blanchett vs. Amy Ryan and Casey Affleck vs Javier Bardem, and thats it.

[Ezee E]

Best Picture

That list looks accurate, except switch out Kite Runner for Michael Clayton and you have the official Academy shortlist. No Country is the only lock at this point, Atonement is fairly certain as well. Michael Clayton's buzz has gone up significantly in recent weeks due to its extremely warm reception from everyone handing out nominations and awards.

-Atonement
-Michael Clayton
-No Country for Old Men
-Sweeney Todd
-There Will Be Blood

Sweeney seems to be the wildcard, but TWBB is pretty much a wildcard also. Either are exchangeable for Juno or Diving Bell. I don't think AMPAS will select American Gangster.

Tony Gilroy might give Diablo Cody a run for her money in the screenplay department. Other than that, thats sewn up.

The race really is Julie Christie and Ellen Page. Marion Cotillard is pretty much a lock for a nomination as well. Laura Linney and Angelina Jolie are my other picks in the actress department.

As far as the supporting awards go, its Cate Blanchett vs. Amy Ryan and Casey Affleck vs Javier Bardem, and thats it.
Yeah. Kite Runner, Juno, or Michael Clayton.

One could hope for a Diving Bell and Butterfly nomination, but I won't count on it.