Eternity (fails miserably) at tracking/predicting Best Picture

[eternity]

10/12/08

1. The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (David Fincher)
3. Rachel Getting Married (Jonathon Demme)
4. The Wrestler (Darren Aronofsky)
5. Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Allen)

6. Revolutionary Road (Sam Mendes)
7. Synecdoche, New York (Charlie Kaufman)
8. Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)
9. Frost/Nixon (Ron Howard)
10. The Visitor (Thomas McCarthy)

11. Slumdog Millionaire (Danny Boyle)
12. The Brothers Bloom (Rian Johnson)
13. Australia (Baz Lurhmann)
14. Milk (Gus Van Sant)
15. Defiance (Edward Zwick)

16. W. (Oliver Stone)
17. Burn After Reading (Joel and Ethan Coen)
18. Valkyrie (Bryan Singer)
19. Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)
20. Changeling (Clint Eastwood)

21. Mamma Mia! (Phyllida Lloyd)
22. Seven Pounds (Gabriele Muccino)
23. Appaloosa (Ed Harris)
24. The Road (John Hillcoat)
25. What Just Happened? (Barry Levinson)

Outside (in no order):
Body of Lies (Ridley Scott)
Towelhead (Alan Ball)
Snow Angels (David Gordon Green)
Pride and Glory (Gavin O'Connor)
The Duchess (Saul Dibb)
Iron Man (Jon Favreau)
Ghost Town (David Koepp)
Son of Rambow (Garth Jennings)
Stop-Loss (Kimberly Pierce)
My Blueberry Nights (Wong Kar-Wai)
Killshot (John Madden)
Flash of Genius (Marc Abraham)
Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Nicholas Stoller)
Che (Steven Soderbergh)
Mister Lonely (Harmony Korine)
Redbelt (David Mamet)
The Wackness (Jonathon Levine)
The Fall (Tarsem Singh)
Brideshead Revisited (Julian Jarrold)
Blindness (Fernando Meirelles)
Bottle Shock (Randall Miller)
Hamlet 2 (Andrew Fleming)
Miracle at St. Anna (Spike Lee)
The Secret Life of Bees (Gina Prince-Bythewood)
Choke (Clark Gregg)
Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood)
Wall-E (Andrew Stanton)

[Spinal]

I really don't think that The Dark Knight will earn a Best Picture nomination.

[Pop Trash]

I really don't think that The Dark Knight will earn a Best Picture nomination.
I think it's possible. It's still one of the best reviewed movies of the year and it would boost up the Oscars ratings which have been going down in recent years.

If I had to pick them right now:

1. Benjamin Button
2. The Dark Knight
3. Milk
4. Doubt
5. The Road

[eternity]

It's the Titanic effect. The ratings for the Oscars are declining rapidly year-to-year, it made over 500 million dollars, it is a critical success and Ledger is going to be the most buzzed thing about the awards no matter what.

Would Titanic have won BP and the other 10+ awards it won that night if it wasn't for being #1 for months straight eventually finishing at 600 million? I doubt it. And for the record, I wasn't the biggest fan of TDK and don't think it should be nominated. But what I think should be nominated and what actually is is always different.

[Silencio]

Barcelona has no chance. It's a Best Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay bet at best.

Rachel Getting Married could fill the indie/"film-that-could" slot of the year.

I see most of The Wrestler buzz leading to a nomination for Rourke, and that's it.

My predictions:

The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Changeling
Milk
Revolutionary Road

[eternity]

Changeling is at 38% on the Tomatometer and even the positive reviews aren't exactly confident.

[Winston*]

That thread title doesn't make sense with those brackets in it.

[Ezee E]

Dark Knight
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
The Road (if it actually comes out)

Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Australia, and Doubt as the other possibilities.

I'll have to dig up my original thoughts in Wats' thread.

[B-side]

Gran Torino
The Dark Knight
Milk
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Doubt

My guesses as of this moment. I'll update with the rest of the categories, I guess.

[eternity]

That thread title doesn't make sense with those brackets in it.

Pwned.

[B-side]

Oscar predictions:

Best Picture:
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Gran Torino
The Dark Knight
Milk
Doubt

Best Director:
Sam Mendes- Revolutionary Road
Stephen Daldry- The Reader
Clint Eastwood- Gran Torino
John Patrick Shanley- Doubt
David Fincher- The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button

Best Actor:
Sean Penn- Milk
Leonardo DiCaprio- Revolutionary Road
Brad Pitt- The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Benicio Del Toro- Che

Best Actress:
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-Lucky
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road
Angelina Jolie- Changeling

Best Supporting Actor:
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Phillip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Jamie Foxx- The Soloist
Josh Brolin- Milk
Michael Sheen- Frost/Nixon

Best Supporting Actress:
Cate Blanchett- The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Amy Adams- Doubt
Kate Winslet- The Reader
Amy Ryan- Changeling
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Cristina Barcelona

First name/film under each category is what/who I consider to be the front-runner. The rest are in no order.

[Robby P]

I'm also skeptical of The Dark Knight's chances at a BP nomination. How often do summer action movies get that sort of treatment? What are the historical comparisons?

[Ezee E]

I'm also skeptical of The Dark Knight's chances at a BP nomination. How often do summer action movies get that sort of treatment? What are the historical comparisons?
Gladiator.

Plus, a weak list of movies this year, and a want for bigger budget movies to be nominated, box office records, and (BIZARRO) critical/audience acclaim with it being a great movie, may just be a reason of why it gets nominated.

[Mysterious Dude]

The Dark Knight doesn't seem like a very "Oscar" film to me, but I said the exact same thing about The Departed, so I'll steer clear of official predictions this time.

[Ezee E]

Who'd have thought that the February horror movie Silence of the Lambs would not only get Best Picture, but the top five categories?

That won't happen for Dark Knight, but I'll say it'll at least get Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, and maybe Screenplay. Along with a ridiculous amount of tech categories. Cinematography, Sound, Sound Editing, Visual Effects, Art Direction, and Score seem like locks to me. Another reason it'll probably be nominated for Best Picture.

[Watashi]

The Road and Changeling's stock has dropped. Button and Doubt's are rising. I think Doubt will be a huge Oscar contender.

Gran Torino will get a BP nom because it's Eastwood as a crazy racist who comes to terms with himself.

The Dark Knight is pretty much a lock right now to get nominated.

[Ezee E]

The Road and Changeling's stock has dropped. Button and Doubt's are rising. I think Doubt will be a huge Oscar contender.

Gran Torino will get a BP nom because it's Eastwood as a crazy racist who comes to terms with himself.

The Dark Knight is pretty much a lock right now to get nominated.
Yeah, I should take out Doubt for The Road, but I'm still holding out hope that the movie gets released on the same route that Gran Torino is taking.

[B-side]

The Road and Changeling's stock has dropped. Button and Doubt's are rising. I think Doubt will be a huge Oscar contender.

Gran Torino will get a BP nom because it's Eastwood as a crazy racist who comes to terms with himself.

The Dark Knight is pretty much a lock right now to get nominated.

Yeah, I think the poor reviews Changeling is receiving so far will have a negative affect on its BP chances, but I still think it's looking good for an acting nod or two.

[eternity]

Gran Torino doesn't even have a release date yet. At the same time, I think Letters from Iwo Jima was the same way, it was just magically thrown out into a couple theaters before the year was up and got a bunch of nods.

[B-side]

Gran Torino doesn't even have a release date yet. At the same time, I think Letters from Iwo Jima was the same way, it was just magically thrown out into a couple theaters before the year was up and got a bunch of nods.

Eastwood was told he had to have it out in December.

[balmakboor]

I know I'm alone in liking but not loving The Dark Knight. I'm also fairly alone in pretty much hating Vicky Cristina Barcelona. So I hope Eternity's predictions are wrong. I liked Nick and Norah better than either, by far.

I think it is a great looking Fall/Winter season coming up. Benjamin Button, Rachel Getting Married, The Wrestler, Milk, W., and Revolutionary Road are all things I can't wait to see.

[Raiders]

Wow. I knew nothing about Doubt until now (as a movie--I knew of the play). John Patrick Shanley, huh? Awesome.

[B-side]

Wow. I knew nothing about Doubt until now (as a movie--I knew of the play). John Patrick Shanley, huh? Awesome.

Yeah, it looks pretty good. Looks to be an acting powerhouse.

[Ezee E]

Dark Knight
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
The Road (if it actually comes out)

Slumdog Millionaire, Benjamin Button, Australia, and Doubt as the other possibilities.

I'll have to dig up my original thoughts in Wats' thread.

I'll have Slumdog Millionaire take The Road's place.

[Pop Trash]

I think it's possible. It's still one of the best reviewed movies of the year and it would boost up the Oscars ratings which have been going down in recent years.

If I had to pick them right now:

1. Benjamin Button
2. The Dark Knight
3. Milk
4. Doubt
5. The Road

Hmmm...now that The Road is out, I'm thinking it will either be a left field choice like Rachel Getting Married or Slumdog Millionaire or it will be the not so left field choice of Revolutionary Road.

[eternity]

Hah, I guess I forgot to update here last Sunday like I did at RT/FG. An update coming on Sunday too.

1(1). The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
2(2). The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (David Fincher)
3(4). The Wrestler (Darren Aronofsky)
4(9). Frost/Nixon (Ron Howard)
5(3). Rachel Getting Married (Jonathon Demme)

6(6). Revolutionary Road (Sam Mendes)
7(11). Slumdog Millionaire (Danny Boyle)
8(8). Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)
9(14). Milk (Gus Van Sant)
10(13). Australia (Baz Luhrmann)

11(7). Synecdoche, New York (Charlie Kaufman)
12(12). The Brothers Bloom (Rian Johnson)
13(19). Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)
14(n/a). Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood)
15(5). Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Allen)

16(10). The Visitor (Thomas McCarthy)
17(16). W. (Oliver Stone)
18(n/a). The Reader (Stephen Daldry)
19(18). Valkyrie (Bryan Singer)
20(17). Burn After Reading (Joel and Ethan Coen)

21(15). Defiance (Edward Zwick)
22(23). Appaloosa (Ed Harris)
23(20). Changeling (Clint Eastwood)
24(21). Mamma Mia! (Phyllida Lloyd)
25(22). Seven Pounds (Gabriele Muccino)

26(n/a). Wall-E (Andrew Stanton)
27(n/a). Elegy (Isabel Coixet)
28(n/a). Frozen River (Courtney Hunt)
29(n/a). In Bruges (Martin McDonagh)
30(n/a). Body of Lies (Ridley Scott)

[Ezee E]

Just take Mmma Mia, Appaloosa, Burn AFter Reading, The Visitor, Vicky, and Synecdoche off.

[eternity]

Just take Mmma Mia, Appaloosa, Burn AFter Reading, The Visitor, Vicky, and Synecdoche off.All of those at this point are still definitely in the game. Longshots, but in the game.

I could definitely remove the 26-30 spots though, they are worthless.

[Ezee E]

All of those at this point are still definitely in the game. Longshots, but in the game.

I could definitely remove the 26-30 spots though, they are worthless.
No. They aren't in the game. Unless you think the Kansas City Chiefs still have a chance at the Superbowl...

[eternity]

No. They aren't in the game. Unless you think the Kansas City Chiefs still have a chance at the Superbowl...

With all sorts of things dropping like flies, films like Burn After Reading, Appaloosa, and especially The Visitor and Vicky Cristina Barcelona, two films that the studios behind them would be a fool not to try to push because they're the strongest of the studios lineups this year, they can make a dent. Synecdoche's divisize response and SPC having a much bigger hit in Rachel Getting Married is deflating its chances, and I have that represented in next Sunday's chart, and Mamma Mia! is only on there as it is going to most likely be a Golden Globe smash and have steam as being the happy box office hit/lone musical.

The Chiefs are 1-5 right now. I think all these films are 3-3 right now, maybe some of them at 4-2.

[Ezee E]

FOR SURE:
The Dark Knight

MAY AS WELL BE A SURE THING:
Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk

THE REST:
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
Australia
Frost/Nixon
Wall-E*
Slumdog Millionaire
Doubt

CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEING OUT:
Gran Torino
Defiance


I think that's what we're down to.

[eternity]

FOR SURE:
The Dark Knight

FRONTRUNNER CONTENDERS:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Wrestler
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Revolutionary Road

POSSIBLE CONTENDERS:
Gran Torino
Frost/Nixon
Rachel Getting Married
Australia
Doubt

OUTSIDE CHANCES:
Happy-Go-Lucky
The Brothers Bloom
Defiance
Wall-E
The Reader
The Visitor
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

[Sxottlan]

Looks like the conversation is starting in the media about how this has become a pretty anemic year for Oscar, especially with 1-2 delay of The Soloist and The Road.

[Watashi]

The Soloist and The Road were never big Oscar movies to begin with.

[Kurosawa Fan]

The Soloist and The Road were never big Oscar movies to begin with.

I think The Road was, but I agree that The Soloist wasn't going to do much. The Road was such a huge book, I think a solid adaptation would have appealed to a lot of voters.

[Ezee E]

I think The Road was, but I agree that The Soloist wasn't going to do much. The Road was such a huge book, I think a solid adaptation would have appealed to a lot of voters.
Yes. It may have been too dark, and if it followed the book, I don't see it being highly regarded (possibly why it's being pushed back), but a lot of people were looking forward to it on the critical side.

Other than Benjamin Button, I'm pretty sure it was the most anticipated movie of the winter on this site as well.

[Pop Trash]

So has anyone thought how Obama's win might effect the Oscar race? The last two winners (No Country and The Departed) were both dark and violent. I wonder if they are going to lean towards more hopeful, positive films? I think Wall-E might have a better chance of getting in there now that Obama won. I don't think they will go so far as to put the Will Smith Oscar bait in for B.P. but I'm thinking they won't lean as dark as they have in the last few years.

[Ezee E]

So has anyone thought how Obama's win might effect the Oscar race? The last two winners (No Country and The Departed) were both dark and violent. I wonder if they are going to lean towards more hopeful, positive films? I think Wall-E might have a better chance of getting in there now that Obama won. I don't think they will go so far as to put the Will Smith Oscar bait in for B.P. but I'm thinking they won't lean as dark as they have in the last few years.
If the election helps a movie, it'll help Milk.

[Amnesiac]

So has anyone thought how Obama's win might effect the Oscar race? The last two winners (No Country and The Departed) were both dark and violent. I wonder if they are going to lean towards more hopeful, positive films? I think Wall-E might have a better chance of getting in there now that Obama won. I don't think they will go so far as to put the Will Smith Oscar bait in for B.P. but I'm thinking they won't lean as dark as they have in the last few years.

Interesting thought, but I'm not sure about this. Did the negativity surrounding America's leader influence the Academy's choices regarding No Country and The Departed? I mean, greatly influence them? A film can't just be a great film, regardless of America's dismal (or now, apparently, hopeful) political contexts? There has to be dialogue between those two elements - the state of America and the way the merits of a film correspond to that state? Obama won, thereby inducing a surge of pride, euphoria and hope...which then might imbed itself into the collective American imagination and therefore make it likely that the Academy will be more willing to accept the rejuvenating/redemptive inclinations of Wall-E.

I guess it makes sense in theory.

[eternity]

Milk is going to win Best Picture if my confidence in the Hollywood backlash to Prop 8 passing is legitimate.

[Raiders]

So has anyone thought how Obama's win might effect the Oscar race? The last two winners (No Country and The Departed) were both dark and violent. I wonder if they are going to lean towards more hopeful, positive films? I think Wall-E might have a better chance of getting in there now that Obama won. I don't think they will go so far as to put the Will Smith Oscar bait in for B.P. but I'm thinking they won't lean as dark as they have in the last few years.

9/11 gave way to... A Beautiful Mind. The Academy is not socially relevant.

[eternity]

1(9). Milk (Gus Van Sant)
2(1). The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
3(2). The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (David Fincher)
4(7). Slumdog Millionaire (Danny Boyle)
5(3). The Wrestler (Darren Aronofsky)

6(6). Revolutionary Road (Sam Mendes)
7(13). Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)
8(5). Rachel Getting Married (Jonathon Demme)
9(4). Frost/Nixon (Ron Howard)
10(10). Australia (Baz Luhrmann)

11(8). Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)
12(26). Wall-E (Andrew Stanton)
13(14). Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood)
14(12). The Brothers Bloom (Rian Johnson)
15(18). The Reader (Stephen Daldry)

16(16). The Visitor (Thomas McCarthy)
17(19). Valkyrie (Bryan Singer)
18(21). Defiance (Edward Zwick)
19(15). Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Woody Allen)
20(17). W. (Oliver Stone)

21(11). Synecdoche, New York (Charlie Kaufman)
22(17). Burn After Reading (Joel and Ethan Coen)
23(23). Appaloosa (Ed Harris)
24(25). Seven Pounds (Gabriele Muccino)
25 (n/a). I've Loved You So Long (Philippe Claudel)

[Ezee E]

I think Dark Knight or Benjamin Button have got it. Revolutionary Road or Australia are the only movies that may end up surprising me in the end, but I'm not counting on it.

[Pop Trash]

Interesting thought, but I'm not sure about this. Did the negativity surrounding America's leader influence the Academy's choices regarding No Country and The Departed? I mean, greatly influence them? A film can't just be a great film, regardless of America's dismal (or now, apparently, hopeful) political contexts? There has to be dialogue between those two elements - the state of America and the way the merits of a film correspond to that state? Obama won, thereby inducing a surge of pride, euphoria and hope...which then might imbed itself into the collective American imagination and therefore make it likely that the Academy will be more willing to accept the rejuvenating/redemptive inclinations of Wall-E.

I guess it makes sense in theory.

Yeah but look how the violence and turmoil of the 60s gave way to the new guard of American films in the late 60s/70s. These films had much more graphic violence and dark themes than ever before. I think the mood or pulse of the country is always a factor in these kinds of things. I'm pretty sure that the same movies I predicted will get in (Milk, Doubt, Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, and probably some sort of wild card indie movie like Rachel Getting Married or Slumdog Millionaire or maybe just the less wild card Revolutionary Road) but I wonder if Obama's victory will swing voters one way or another. I guess I mentioned Wall-E since it seems to acknowledge all of our problems but ultimately is a hopeful movie.