Watashi's Super-Duper Early Happy-Fun-Time Oscar Predictions

[Watashi]

You know you want it.

Yeah, this is early. Ridiculous early. But that's the fun of it. To look back when the real nominations are announced and see how foolish you were and slap yourself and say "I nominated that? That film/performance fucking sucked!". Predicting the Oscars around the time where all the critics post their best of lists is no fun, because it starts gaining repetition and begins looking like everyone else's predictions.

In my September predictions last year, I had high hopes for Into the Wild, Lions for Lambs, American Gangster, Charlie Wilson's War, The Assassination of Jesse James, The Kite Runner, and Elizabeth: The Golden Age. This time last year, Juno wasn't even a blip on the radar and only got buzz due to a rave from Roger Ebert stating that Page will be nominated for Best Actress (and I'm a firm believer that film wouldn't have gotten all that attention if it wasn't for Ebert).

This is all judging from current festival buzz to my own whacked out predictions.

Best Supporting Actress is up first.

[Watashi]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Best Supporting Actress is always one of the hardest categories to predict because it’s always chock full of actresses that make general movie audiences go “who?” Cate Blanchett was the only actress that had buzz in mid-September and for Atonement, a lot of critics thought the other two Briony’s (Redgrave and Garai) would be pushed for. The other three kinda just apparated out of nowhere (especially Ruby Dee).

This year, I’m trying to think like the future Academy and throw in a mix of old veterans and underappreciated faces. The only lock here so far is Penelope Cruz. Her buzz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona is off the charts and the Academy so wants Penelope to finally get recognized after being denied for her (better) performance in Volver. This is Woody’s most financially successful film to date and easily digestible for Woody virgins. Oh, and I bet you anything the Academy is licking their lips at the situation of Javier Bardem presenting the Oscar to Penelope Cruz. They will love that.

To fit the other remaining holes, I think Kathy Bates will get nominated because she’s an Oscar favorite and plays very baity roles. Viola Davis has been getting a lot early positive energy for her performance in Doubt. The film is going to be a huge Oscar screamer (even more so than Revolutionary Road) and even if it fails to impress critics, Davis will still get in. Mixed reviews mean very little to the supporting community, so which is why I don’t think Burn After Reading’s mediocre reviews will hurt its chances for any acting awards in its ensemble. I think Frances McDormand’s return to comedy will woo Oscar voters over to give McDormand her 5th nomination. Finally, it’s the Ruby Dee award and it goes to Taraji P. Henson. Who? She plays Benjamin’s adopted mother in Fincher’s big-budgeted holiday film and early comparisons have linked her role into a Sally Fieldish way in Forrest Gump.

Looking outside are Kate Winslet hoping to score a double nom this year with her performance in The Reader and Amy Ryan trying to repeat herself in Clint Eastwood’s Changeling.

http://espectadores.net/wp-content/vicky-cristina-barcelona-penelope-cruz.jpg

Predictions:

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Viola Davis, Doubt
Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road

Alt:

Kate Winslet, The Reader
Amy Ryan, Changeling

Don't Count Out:

Amy Adams, Doubt
Vera Farmiga, Nothing but the Truth
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Debra Winger, Rachel Getting Married
Rebecca Hall, Frost/Nixon

[Sycophant]

(and I'm a firm believer that film wouldn't have gotten all that attention if it wasn't for Ebert).I... I still love you, Rog, as hard as you may try to push me away.

Love your in-depth takes on these Wats, even if I can't really bring myself to care about them more than 364 days a year.

[Watashi]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

This is a tricky category because it has the potential to be fulled with an array of different genre-bending performances and also terribly lopsided if the Academy caves in a grant fanboys across the globe their wish. Last year, I was pretty horrible at this category predicting people like Tom Cruise for Lions for Lambs, Clive Owen for Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and Mark Ruffalo for Reservation Road (which no one even saw, not even its own director). Javier Bardem happened to be the only certainty of that year and my deaf-mute grandmother could have seen his win that far away. This year... is a little different.

No matter how you want to view it, this will be Heath Ledger's award to lose. The Academy will be terrified to snub him a nomination, but the main question is: will he win? Well, he has a much better chance than Peter Finch did to say the least. The hype for The Dark Knight was well reached, but even though the film had its few dissenters, his performance gained universal praise from critics and audiences everywhere. And for an award show that was met with low, low rankings last year, nominating and awarding Heath Ledger will skyrocket the Academy's regular tracking audience. To say whether Heath would be in this position if he was still alive is not the point. The Academy is not stupid. They know what's hot right now and I don't think any actor out there would argue with Ledger's final farewell.

For the other poor unfortunate souls that will be nominated, they will most likely sit quietly and wave as they know that if they beat a dead guy at an Oscar, the feeling of gratitude wouldn't be the same. Robert Downey Jr. is having one hell of a year and has been on a role for the past two years. He already has two critically-acclaimed performances under his belt this year, but his work in Joe Wright's The Soloist. It's not a challenging role, but Oscar will feel require to nominate him ever since his resurgence into the mainstream's eye. If The Soloist disappoints, you can easily expect him to represent Tropic Thunder. Josh Brolin's role as President George W. Bush will likely be a role that seems to bait Academy voters, but the film will be a flop and voters will be unsure if he belongs in comedy or drama. His support work for Milk will snag him an nomination in which seems to be a crowded male ensemble cast. Michael Sheen should have been nominated for Tony Blair in The Queen, but he'll get one for portraying another British icon, David Frost. And finally, there will be a kid nomination. There always will be and it frustrates me to see the Academy acknowledge the younglings even though none of them has ever had a shot of winning. The Road's Kodi Smit McPhee should fill this hole quite nicely especially the pain and struggle the character endures in the film.

Alternatives are John Malkovich in Clint's Changeling (which should be an Oscar titan this year and score multiple acting noms) and Liev Schreiber in what will probably be Defiance's lone token nom (Ed Zwick has a way of pushing his supporting actors for Oscar consideration).

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/06/02/the_dark_knight_joker.jpg

Predictions:

Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., The Soloist
Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon
Kodi Smit McPhee, The Road

Alt:

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
John Malkovich, Changeling
Liev Schreiber, Defiance

Don't Count Out:

Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Richard Dreyfuss, W.
James Franco, Milk
Jeremy Irons, Appaloosa
David Thewlis, The Boy in the Striped Pajamas

[Morris Schæffer]

Yeah, Ledger's a lock at this point. I don't think anyone else will come close for the rest of the year.

Interestingly, in his last reelviews column, Berardinelli argues that the posthumous award should be dispensed with. He goes on to reason that an Oscar is a door-opener for the recipient first and foremost and that a dead actor will never reap such benefits. Thus, someone who is still alive should get the award since it will be more meaningful to said person.

Fuck Berardinelli. Go Ledger!

[transmogrifier]

Yeah, Ledger's a lock at this point. I don't think anyone else will come close for the rest of the year.

Interestingly, in his last reelviews column, Berardinelli argues that the posthumous award should be dispensed with. He goes on to reason that an Oscar is a door-opener for the recipient first and foremost and that a dead actor will never reap such benefits. Thus, someone who is still alive should get the award since it will be more meaningful to said person.

Fuck Berardinelli. Go Ledger!

That's a really stupid line of reasoning.

[balmakboor]

You know. Penelope Cruz and Heath Ledger will both probably win supporting Oscars this year for performances that electrified an otherwise pretty terrible movie. The more I think about Vicky Cristina Barcelona and The Dark Knight, the more I realize that Cruz and Ledger provided their only pleasures for me. But those pleasures were huge.

[Ezee E]

I'll have to come up with these as well.

Question is, which "bait" movie will be the bust? Benjamin Button, Revolutionary Road, Frost/Nixon, Changeling?

What will surprise us all?

[Watashi]

BEST ACTRESS

Last year in September, people were hopping aboard the Marion Cotillard bandwagon and blindly joined it even though I had no idea who this woman was and if anyone actually saw her movie. It made me learn an important Oscar lesson: respect the buzz. A little buzz can go a long way and Cotillard's chances would have been diminishable without all those internet fansites. I had both Christie and Cotillard being represented and I also had Keira Knightley getting the snub for Atonement, so I was pretty on the money last year. This year seems pretty easy again to pick out the winners and the losers. The front runner for Best Actress has always been easy to target near the beginning of Fall and this year is no different.

Angelina Jolie's performances in Changeling has already been proclaimed an Oscar-lock for those lucky enough to see it. She plays the baity housemother who is searching for her missing son, and then of course, there is the Eastwood factor and that should easily get her a nomination. However, she isn't quite a lock as people think. She is facing down incredibly tough competition that could easily deserve it if their roles live up to the hype. Meryl Streep is trying her damn hardest to win this year more than ever. She plays a freakin' NUN for Christ's sake! The film, Doubt, screams Oscar, the performance screams Oscar, and Streep already warmed people's hearts with Mamma Mia in the Summer so you know she's giving everything she can to win her 3rd Oscar. After her, Jolie will have to face down the Oscar-hungry Kate Winslet. Ignore the naysayers, Kate is going to get nominated for Revolutionary Road and this might be her last great chance to win one. It's the perfect Oscar vehicle and audiences will have instant flashbacks of Titanic once they see Kate and Leo together on the screen again. If she doesn't win this year, she won't ever. Sally Hawkins' has been getting great reviews for her performance in Mike Leigh's Happy Go-Lucky and she should fill the quirky, independent spot on the Best Actress roster once her film opens wide in the States. Then there's the 5th spot who I'm juggling between a few actresses but I'll give it to Rachel McAdams for The Time Traveler's Wife. The film won't be the huge Oscar favorite that the studios hope for, but McAdams should get her due for what seems to be a meaty and complex role.

Knocking on the door is Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married. She's been getting great reviews, but the film might be too "Margot at the Wedding" for some voters as they snubbed both Kidman and Leigh for that film last year. Also, speaking of Kidman, she has a huge Oscar role in Australia, but will the reteaming of her and Baz be enough?

http://images.teamsugar.com/files/upl1/1/13839/32_2008/MV5BMjAxNDkyNDQxMl5BMl5BanBnXk FtZTcwODA1MzQ1MQ@@._V1._SX485_ SY323_.jpg

Predictions:

Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Sally Hawkins, Happy Go-Lucky
Rachel McAdams, The Time Traveler's Wife

Alt:

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Nicole Kidman, Australia

Don't Count Out:

Emily Blunt, The Young Victorian
Keira Knightley, The Duchess
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Dakota Fanning, The Secret Life of Bees

[Ezee E]

Strong picks for the actresses. Cate Blanchett gets to play various age types though, and a sickly old mother in bed as she narrates the story. I'd count on that one.

Sally Hawkins is well-deserving after seeing her, and is basically an older "Juno", only I can see more of the elitist crowd liking her.

Hathaway also seems to be getting raves.

It may finally be a tough year for actresses. Luckily, I also had Marion last year.

[Ezee E]

BEST PICTURE:
The Dark Knight
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR:
Danny Boyle -- Slumdog Millionaire
Jonathan Demme -- Rachel Getting Married
David Fincher -- Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Christopher Nolan -- The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant -- Milk


BEST ACTOR:
Frank Langella -- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn -- Milk
Brad Pitt -- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke -- The Wrestler
Will Smith -- Seven Pounds

BEST ACTRESS:
Anne Hathaway -- Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins -- Happy Go Lucky
Angelina Jolie -- Changeling
Meryl Streep -- Doubt
Kate Winslet -- Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Heath Ledger -- The Dark Knight
Philip Seymour Hoffman -- Doubt
Michael Sheen -- Frost/Nixon


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams -- Doubt
Cate Blanchett -- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Penelope Cruz -- Vicki Cristina Barcelona

[Ezee E]

wow. I didn't even see wats' predictions on supporting actor.

[NickGlass]

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams -- Changeling
Amy Adams -- Doubt


Huh?

Also, I think you guys are overestimating the potential of The Soloist.

[Ezee E]

Huh?

Also, I think you guys are overestimating the potential of The Soloist.
realized that, I'll have to make a change for Supporting Actress.

[Watashi]

BEST ACTOR

This is by far the most competitive race. Day-Lewis won it with no question last year, but that was a performance that rivaled the best of the best and shook you up once you felt his presence on screen. Sometimes the Academy can muck up this award and nominate the correct actor, but for the wrong movie (Leo DiCaprio for Blood Diamond, Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah), so it's damn near impossible to guess correctly this early in the year. This year, no real front runner has step forth, but these five guys can easily take home a statue.

As it stands today, Che is scheduled to be released as a 2008 film in two films, but Steven Soderbergh is pushing for one 4 hour long movie. Whether, it's one or two movies, it doesn't really matter, Benicio Del Toro is getting nominated. The film has been in development forever and there is so much history behind-the-scenes, it would silly not to think Benico playing one of the most controversial figures of the last century would go unnoticed. As for right, he's my choice to win only if the studio doesn't screw up the release date. Then there's Pitt. Poor poor Brad Pitt. He had a damn good chance last year with The Assassination of Jesse James which he won Best Actor at Venice, but America never saw his movie and it ended up not getting the notice it deserves. If The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a hit, Pitt will get nominated and could easily win for probably his most complex and abstract role to date. Viggo has three shots at a best actor nomination with The Road, Appaloosa, and Good, but it will be the Hillcoat film that will recognize two years in a row. Sean Penn will be a lock if Milk starts racking in awards left and right. Playing a huge respected public figure is always a bonus, but if the performance is deemed too show-boaty, a snub could be in order. The 5th spot will probably go to Frank Langella portraying Tricky Dick. A well-respected actor in the field and Frank looks to be scene-chewing the role that it could swoon Oscar voters in nabbing him a nomination.

One of these guys can be easily replaced by an alternative. Leonardo DiCaprio seems to always get nominated every time he steps in front of a camera. Revolutionary Road could be another nomination for him, but the field may be too crowded this year. Same goes for Will Smith in Seven Pounds who begs for Oscar gold in what seems to be a "look at me" performance that echoes back to The Pursuit of Happyness.

http://www.firstshowing.net/img/Benicio-CheGuevara-may-02.jpg

Predictions:

Benicio Del Toro, Che
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Viggo Mortenson, The Road
Sean Penn, Milk
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Alt:

Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Will Smith, Seven Pounds

Don't Count Out:

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

[Winston*]

I would love it so much if Richard Jenkins got nominated for an Oscar.

[Winston*]

After her, Jolie will have to face down the Oscar-hungry Kate Winslet. Ignore the naysayers, Kate is going to get nominated for Revolutionary Road and this might be her last great chance to win one.

Does Kate Winslet have some illness I'm unaware of btw?

[Ezee E]

I'm going to bet that we may never see Che this year.

[Boner M]

Rourke will win best actor. Mark my words.

[Ezee E]

Rourke will win best actor. Mark my words.
I'm going to say Will Smith.

[Boner M]

I'm going to say Will Smith.
Aww, hell no.

[Ezee E]

Aww, hell no.
Alcoholic, Redemption, Love, saves others, December.

The mix.

[Ivan Drago]

I'm going to bet that we may never see Che this year.

I was gonna say, is Che coming out for real this time?

[Raiders]

Che won't be released as one film in theaters. The Argentine and Guerrilla already have festival release dates and I'm sure a limited release will follow at some point, though maybe not til early 09. It will be two separate films. No way Del Toro is going to win or even be nominated.

[Ezee E]

Che won't be released as one film in theaters. The Argentine and Guerrilla already have festival release dates and I'm sure a limited release will follow at some point, though maybe not til early 09. It will be two separate films. No way Del Toro is going to win or even be nominated.
On Match Cut however...

[Watashi]

Che won't be released as one film in theaters. The Argentine and Guerrilla already have festival release dates and I'm sure a limited release will follow at some point, though maybe not til early 09. It will be two separate films. No way Del Toro is going to win or even be nominated.
Actually, Che was just picked up by Magnolia pictures and would release the full 4 hour film in NY/LA in December so it would be eligible for award consideration,

[Russ]

Rourke will win best actor. Mark my words.
Yeah, he's been getting raves so far. Wats, he should be one of the favorites.

[Watashi]

Yeah, he's been getting raves so far. Wats, he should be one of the favorites.
I don't think so at this moment. The Fall stretch seems too loaded right now. Last year, Brad Pitt got all the raves and won best Actor for Jesse James at Venice, and was never considered by the time the nominations were announced. We'll see. The Wrestler doesn't even have a release date right now.

[Raiders]

Actually, Che was just picked up by Magnolia pictures and would release the full 4 hour film in NY/LA in December so it would be eligible for award consideration,

I have only read that Magnolia has picked up the rights, but nowhere have I seen it definitely said it will be as one film.

[Ezee E]

Benicio Del Toro will also fall along the lines of Brad Pitt from last year methinks.

Yet that film still got thee nominations or so.

[Ezee E]

Slumdog Millionaire is getting raves all over the place.

Can a movie with only Indian actors, directed by Danny Boyle do it?

I doubt it, but that would fit the slot of a movie that comes out of nowhere.

[Watashi]

Slumdog Millionaire is getting raves all over the place.

Can a movie with only Indian actors, directed by Danny Boyle do it?

I doubt it, but that would fit the slot of a movie that comes out of nowhere.
If there is a film that will come out of nowhere, it will be Gran Torino.

[The Mike]

I thought The Visitor was last year. Oops.

I've also heard that Che is in horrible, horrible shape. I think that, if it is seen this year, it'll probably get the Lions for Lambs treatment. Sad, because Del Toro deserves it (even if I haven't seen the movie...he just does...and that's good enough logic, by Academy standards).

[Spinal]

This year, I’m trying to think like the future Academy and throw in a mix of old veterans and underappreciated faces. The only lock here so far is Penelope Cruz. Her buzz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona is off the charts and the Academy so wants Penelope to finally get recognized after being denied for her (better) performance in Volver.

Glad to hear that she is getting attention. Disagree that her performance in Volver was better. This is the best work I have seen her do.

[Sxottlan]

This is Woody’s most financially successful film to date...

Er, where are you getting your numbers? Both Annie Hall and Manhattan made twice as much as this film has. Match Point also has made more.


Fincher’s big-budgeted holiday film

There's a series of words I never expected to see together.